HIMS Q1 2024 Earnings

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) reported earnings of May 6 with the following results,

Guides vs actuals

  • Guided 267-272M revenue → actual 278M (+46% yoy)
  • Guided adj EBITDA 22-27M → actual 32.3M
  • Guided 9% EBITDA margin → actual 12%
  • Full year revenue guide was 1.17 - 1.2B → 1.2 - 1.23
  • Full year EBITDA guide was 100 - 120M → 120 - 135
  • Full year EBITDA margin guide was 9% → 10 - 11%
  • Q2 revenue guide of 292-297M (40 - 43%)
  • Q2 adj EBITDA guide of 30-35M
  • Q2 adj EBITDA margin guide of 10-12%
  • Robinhood analyst consensus EPS $0.01 → actual $0.05

Other notable items include,

  • Net income 11.1M vs -10.1M last year
  • Adj EBITDA 32.2M vs 6.1M last year
  • Adj EBITDA margin 12% vs 3% last year
  • Net income margin 4% vs -5% last year
  • Subscribers 1.7M (+41% yoy)
  • Record number of new customers
  • Long term adj EBITDA margin target 20-30%
  • Monthly online revenue per average subscriber $55, was $55 last year (would have liked to see this rise)
  • Average order volume (AOV) $109 vs $90 last year (users extending subscriptions longer)
  • Gross margin 82% vs 80% last year
  • Net cash from operating activities 25.8M vs 9.5M last year
  • FCF 11.9M vs 7M last year
  • Cost of revenue 49M vs 37M last year
  • Diluted EPS of 0.05 vs -0.05 last year

Here are some of the graphs from the investor presentation,

Notes from the conference call,

CEO - Andrew Dudum

  • Five core specialities: men’s dermatology, women’s dermatology, mental health, sexual health, and weight loss
  • Strong execution drawing more consumers to platform than ever before
  • Subscribers grew by record 172,000 to over 1.7M
  • Personalized subscriptions tripled over last year to 600k subscribers, now 35% of total users
  • Revenue increased 46% to 278M
  • 32M Adj EBITDA
  • Partnering with leading medical institutions and experts within each specialty
  • Offering personalized treatment options at mass market prices
  • Improving customer experience through user-friendly form factors and broader selection of multi-action offerings
  • New 2 in 1 treatment for men for ED + heart
  • TV and brand campaigns are raising brand awareness and platform capabilities
  • Efficiency gains solidify conviction of reaching long term adj EBITDA margin target of 20-30%
  • Three underlying components of model that bring differentiated value: technology platform, team of medical experts, affiliated pharmacies
  • Affiliated pharmacies uphold integrity of brand with exacting standards
  • Additional investments in affiliated pharmacies, will be integrating robotics and specialized software
  • CEO says words were misconstrued about Israel and Palestine conflict, clarified on call (CEO said supported student protestors and would hire, link)

CFO - Yemi Okupe

  • Leveraging affiliated pharmacies to get efficiencies across key costs in logistics, raw ingredients and customer support
  • G&A improved 4 points yoy to be 12% of revenue in Q1
  • Marketing as percentage of revenue improved more than 400 basis points, at 47%
  • Stronger retention, combined with increased acquisition of users through lower cost channels drove leverage
  • Strong execution driving record profitability levels
  • Conviction that 2024 will be first GAAP profitable year
  • Repurchased 2M shares, approved for up to 50M
  • 204M in cash
  • Highest priority is positioning business for growth
  • Expect meaningful deployment of capital to invest in affiliated pharmacies over next three years

Q&A

  • Bringing a much more diverse set of customers to the platform
  • Dropping prices strategically - mass market attractive products
  • Users coming to platform, loving products and staying longer
  • More consumers are coming to us organically
  • Catalysts for users to stay on the platform for years “or even decades”
  • Automation of affiliated pharmacies will drive ROI and higher margins
  • Offering in GLP-1 is affordable and safe
  • Bringing a number of new form factors to market, processes to go through to get complex ingredients in these form factors
  • Embedded in guidance strong momentum we’ve seen
  • Continued strength across all specialties, innovating in each one
  • Strong uptick in customer acquisition in the first quarter
  • Hers side of business continues to be one of fastest growing - dermatology, hair, weight loss (women’s business is growing fastest)
  • Women’s side of business is “pulling the company ahead in a dramatic way”
  • 1-2% of “penetration rates in very, very massive markets”
  • Investments in brand over last year or two are starting to take massive market share
  • Monthly sales per average subscriber were flat yoy but average order value up 21% (Not sure why this is not growing)
  • Continuing to make sure that multi month bundles are attractive, and continued success here
  • Analyst asks, about EBITDA margin implying step down in back half of year, answer Q1 was “phenomenal quarter” and leaving themselves flexibility
  • Advantages of generic treatment are platform, stickiness, degree of choice, customization
  • We’ve seen the consumer remain very resilient
  • Using pricing and other mechanisms to drive the higher ROI
  • Record levels of net new subscribers, is “efficiency of acquisition”
  • Analyst says GLP-1s seeing significant price competition and discounting - answer that millions if not hundreds of millions of customers in each category and confident in each specialty
  • Want to be best in market not first in market for each specialty
  • High quality, high testing, degree of safety and clinical excellence are all advantages

I am impressed with this report as it validates a number of metrics I was looking for to continue outperforming. Net income is growing, subscriber count is at records, net new revenue is up, marketing expense is coming down, brand awareness is increasing, EBITDA is increasing.

HIMS is investing in the US-based pharmacies they own and driving leverage there. The TAM sounds big here.

The growth rate of revenue looks sustainable in the 40%+ range as they drive operating margins. Also the valuation of this company is attractive especially when doing a side by side comparison of other fast growing consumer companies like Elf and Celsius.

25 Likes

HIMS announced today they are going to provide access to injectable GLP-1 medications for prices starting at $199 a month. The stock is up 9% in the premarket.

The company now offers access to GLP-1 injections in addition to weight management oral medication kits, so that customers can truly personalize their weight loss experience. Providing access to compounded GLP-1s means eligible customers can use medications with the same active ingredient as Ozempic® and Wegovy® without navigating the shortages and costs that are currently limiting access to the branded medications. Through a partnership with a leading US manufacturer of generic and 503B compounded injectable medications, Hims & Hers can help millions of Americans who have obesity and are looking for help safely managing their weight.

“The core of our business is to offer a truly personalized experience that customers can trust and rely on,” said Andrew Dudum, CEO and co-founder of Hims & Hers. “We’ve leveraged our size and scale to secure access to one of the highest-quality supplies of compounded GLP-1 injections available today. We’re passing that access and value along to our customers, who deserve the highest standard of clinical safety and efficacy to meet their goals, and we’re doing it in a safe, affordable way that others can’t deliver."

4 Likes

I don’t see any kind of efficacy or trials on this. So they are giving someone an injectable GLP-1 that they are hoping acts like Ozempic and Wegovy? Sounds to much like the diet pills of the 80’s. I browsed their website and couldn’t determine exactly which one they would give you but some of the the oral/pills they offer say not FDA approved. Here is one of the descriptions on their website. I couldn’t find anything on the injectable.

** What medications do you offer?

Personalized medication kits include a combination of metformin, bupropion, topiramate, vitamin B12, and naltrexone, all taken orally, based on what our providers prescribe according to your custom weight loss profile.**

Andy

1 Like

They own their own pharmacies and control the entire process of the getting raw materials, production and shipping. One pharmacy is in Ohio and one is in Arizona.

You don’t see any difference between the 1980s weight loss drugs which were found to have devastating side effects, and the blockbuster GLP drugs of today with a much better safety profile?

If the company offers a personalized treatment, or combination of ingredients then it’s not FDA approved but still goes through a regulatory process. Sure it’s a risk, but this company has proven its able to navigate this regulatory process with innovative solutions. These are solutions their users want in new form factors.

5 Likes

What I am saying is you don’t know what the safety profile is for the drug Hims is selling. If you do let me see it please.

I am invested in VKTX which is working on a pill form of GLP. It is in it’s 3rd phase of FDA trials. I can tell you the exact safety and efficacy profile from it’s stage 2 test. But what Hims is selling has never been tested. So the drug Hims is selling is all a story drug that has no safety and efficacy profile. Much like the weight loss drugs from the 80’s , which also didn’t have profiles.

Andy

4 Likes

I understand what your concern is better now, but I believe your statement here to be mis-characterization of what is being offered.

For example, the HIMS hair chewable treatment is a combination of Finasteride, Minoxidil, and vitamins. The underlying drugs are often prescribed together and recommended to be taken together by doctors.

I suppose what you are suggesting is this is a completely new drug because it’s combined together into one form factor.


I am not sure what the GLP personalized solutions will entail which could be different. HIMS has a panel of doctors and clinicians to review these combinations and pass necessary regulations.

From the readout of that news article it sounds like they are taking the underlying component of GLPs like Ozempic and offering that which doesn’t sound like a new drug to me.

I am finding many of the replies about this company are under an impression this is a junk science company offering some shady supplements. Having done a deep dive on this company, I find it to be a much different story which is a company driving massive innovation for it’s consumers in a safe and effective way.

The stock is up 28% currently on the news today.

3 Likes

WPR I am only talking about their weight loss drug and the GLP product they are using. Let me ask it another way. What is the weight loss profile of this drug that they are selling? How much weight can someone expect to lose over a months time? What are the chances of me getting sick from this drug? Let me show you VKTX’s weight loss drug that just went through phase 2.

**In September 2023, Viking initiated the Phase 2 VENTURE trial of VK2735 in patients with obesity. During the first quarter of 2024, the company announced positive top-line results from this study in which patients receiving weekly doses of VK2735 demonstrated statistically significant reductions in mean body weight after 13 weeks, ranging up to 14.7% from baseline. Patients receiving VK2735 also demonstrated statistically significant reductions in mean body weight relative to placebo, ranging up to 13.1%. Statistically significant differences compared to both baseline and placebo were observed for all doses starting at Week one and continuing throughout the 13-week treatment period. Reductions in body weight were progressive through the course of the study, with no plateau observed for weight loss at 13 weeks. All doses of VK2735 also demonstrated statistically significant differences relative to placebo on the key secondary endpoint assessing the proportion of patients demonstrating at least 10% weight loss. Up to 88% of patients in VK2735 treatment groups achieved ≥10% weight loss, compared with 4% for placebo.

VK2735 demonstrated encouraging safety and tolerability following 13 weeks of once-weekly dosing in the Phase 2 VENTURE study. Discontinuation rates were low and well-balanced among patients treated with VK2735 compared with placebo. A total of 23 patients (13%) discontinued treatment in the study, 5 (14%) in the placebo cohort and 18 (13%) among VK2735-treated cohorts.

Among patients receiving VK2735 in the VENTURE study, the majority (92%) reported drug related TEAEs as mild or moderate in severity. The majority of TEAEs that were gastrointestinal (GI) in nature (95%) were also reported as mild or moderate. Nausea was reported among patients receiving both VK2735 (43%) and placebo (20%). Among subjects receiving VK2735, the majority of reported nausea (68%) was characterized as mild (32% moderate, none severe). Vomiting was reported in 25/140 (18%) VK2735-treated patients compared with none reported among patients receiving placebo. GI-related adverse events were generally observed early in treatment, with decreasing frequency upon repeat dosing. Across the combined VENTURE study arms, the weekly rate of nausea did not exceed 5% at any point after the first week of treatment. One patient receiving VK2735 experienced a serious adverse event (SAE) of dehydration that was characterized as related to study drug.**

Viking Therapeutics VK2735 - Viking Therapeutics.

What I am trying to find out is where Hims has tested their GLP-1 product and how it did in those tests. Do you know where we can find that information? Because if they haven’t tested it, it is junk science.

Andy

2 Likes

My understanding after prompting Perplexity AI is that there is a regulation called 503B which allows them to produce the medication semaglutide due to shortages of the medication.

While not FDA approved the FDA is well aware of HIMS and has given them approval through registering with current good manufacturing practices (CGMP).

Their medications are produced in compliance with FDA guidelines and are sourced from FDA-registered establishments.

I’ll post what the AI responded with after asking “How can HIMS offer something new created from semaglutide which is not FDA regulated?”

11 Likes

Thank you Wpr. That was very informative.

Andy

2 Likes