HohumYNWA Q3 2022

Investment Analysis Clubs Hohum's RollerCoaster Ride
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One word summary – Aaargggh!
Quite a bit of change during Q3 2022. Port did get a little worse at the start of Q3 2022, but then started recovering. For about three weeks, the port staged a nice recovery to about -4.3%, but it was a false rally. Mostly downhill from mid Aug 2022 thru the end of the Q

Did suggest in Q2 thread that I was trying for a format. So keeping with that
#1 Major sectors - Shipping, Finance and Technology
Shipping - Good in July (actually recovered some), then slump in Aug & Sept. Had not been paying attention, but the tanker companies had started showing signs of life, but dry bulk and containers had started coming apart. Slight exception was GRIN - among newest and smallest stakes in shipping basket - took opportunity to buy and sell GRIN in Q3
Finance - Slight tinkering with nibbles in BRK-B and RA and the ETFs and a test idea with MS
Technology - nibbles in QCOM and GSM, trimmed AAPL & CPNG in Sept. AMZN & SHOP trades

#2 Dividend basket
Focus is on a group of stocks in one of my taxable accounts: 12 - 20 holdings (currently 16). Annual dividend target of basket was reached in Q3, then surpassed. Five names - IEP, ZIM, GOGL, SBLK & FLNG do the heavy lifting - about 74% of dividend income YTD. Exited ABBV in Q3 and trimmed FLNG
after shares traded ex-div.

#3. Opportunities to monetize
0-15% - Okay: ABEV, GSM, AMZN, ABBV, APWC, CPNG*3, AAPL, APPN, VEEV
15-30% - Good: GSM, SHOP *2, AMZN, GLNG, FLNG
30%+ - Great: FLNG, GRIN * 2

#4 Realized losses
Only the bigger ones (> 8%)
Ugly: NM, CPNG * 2,
Fugly: VATE, APWC*3, TMC

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Hang in there!! Most of up think things will recover one of these days. We need to be patient.

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@ Paul - thanks for visiting. Since the new format allows editing, the OP is a work-in-progress. Q3 was a wretched qtr

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Thought I could edit the OP more than twice. Seems to be an issue, so I will just add the other items here
#5 ETF changes: BDRY nibbles in both Roth (2) and Taxable ac (2), ARKF
Will likely struggle with the target of 10% by year-end

#6 Negative surprises: Where do I start? The shipping basket was doing well thru mid-Aug 2022, then got with a nasty whack (ZIM, GSL, GOGL, GNK, SBLK), VATE, QCOM, SPI, VEEV, VZ, AY,

#7 Positive surprises: Fewer, but some. FLNG surprised with a special div, timely trades of SHOP, AMZN, GRIN*2, PHUN, MRNA, APWC (before each of the last three pulled back sharply) & lastly, FLNG trim after ex-div

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The last part of the HoHumYNWA’s Q3 2022 summary–
The Top 10 holdings in the port per 9/30/22

  1. Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure (AY) - Utility - 6.28% Q2 6.87%
  2. Qualcomm (QCOM) - Technology - 5.69% Q2 5.71%
  3. Icahn Partners (IEP) - Financial - 5.56% Q2 5.56%
  4. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) - Financial - 4.39% Q2 3.92% Q1 3.66%
  5. Verizon (VZ) - Technology - 4.25% Q2 4.70%
  6. Apple, Inc (AAPL) - Technology - 3.50% Q2 3.53%
  7. Golden Ocean (GOGL) - Shipping - 3.05% Q2 3.94%
  8. Star Bulk Carriers - Shipping - 2.96% Q2 2.99%
  9. Flex LNG (FLNG) - Shipping - 2.95% Q2 2.69%
  10. Real Assets (RA) - Financial 2.75% new to Top10

Tier 1: (1.07% - 2.49% positions)
ZIM - 2.49%, NMM, ABEV, PDT, PFE, BNS, GSM, GNK, TKLF, GSL, DIS

Tier 2 and Tier 3: Lots of smaller bets, each less than 1%

Primary sectors: Financial, Shipping, & Technology, each between 16-20%

Result for Q3 2022: -19.60%

HoHumYNWA

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Guy on SeekingAlpha (John Vincent) does a fair amount of digging into holdings of various well known Hedge Fund managers. This week he completed a 13F analysis of what Seth Klarman has been buying and selling during Q3 2022

Reviewing Klarman’s portfolio probably poses additional challenges that are not as easily addressed. For example, the portfolio declining from $6.7B to $5.79B. Is that a net decline? After all the monetizing of stakes and port additions to the portfolio, did all the cash stay within the account?

If it is indeed a ~14% decline in Q3 2022, then I should feel less critical of my own Q3 performance. In the past, I have had perhaps one or two significantly larger stakes in my port, but I don’t think it has been quite as concentrated a bet as Klarman (Top 5 at 53% or Top 3 at ~39%). As a reference, my Top 3 is currently around 18%