HohumYNWA Q2 2022

X-post on METAR

Self-managed port was significantly outperforming the market in Q1 (slightly positive while the market was red)
Things changed during Q2. The self-managed port slipped into the red probably mid-April, and the curve got steeper
in June. Around -12.5% at the end of Q2 2022.

The format used in Q1
had some useful high level insights for me, so I will keep the format (with some slight tweaks)

  1. Shipping basket was doing really well thru Q1 (unrealized gains > 50%), and roughly same levels in Apr 2022.
    Opted to monetize gains (mostly in Roth ac, but some in the taxable acs too) starting in mid May 2022. Primarily,
    Golden Ocean (GOGL) in the Roth, plus Flex LNG (FLNG) and GOGL in the taxable accounts. Yet, the shipping basket
    powered still higher (abt 60% unrealized gains on 5/31/22). Then, in June 2022, the breakdown began. Somewhat
    ironic, the decline in some dry bulk and shipping names (ZIM, GSL, GOGL, SBLK) all started after D-Day anniversary
    (June 6th, 2022). I held 10 shipping names (At least 8 positive, 1 negative (dry bulk shipping ETF (BDRY))) on
    06/06/22. By 6/30/22, 11 shipping names (5 positive, 6 negative)

  2. The Q1 post I talked about dividend hikes. Going to tweak this one to look at the dividend from another angle.
    Going forward, this will focus on my taxable ac which is weighted towards dividend paying names. For the first
    six months of 2022, I have already exceeded the total payout for all of 2021. How did that happen? Well, mostly
    via the payouts from four names - ZIM, IEP, GOGL & SBLK. Specifically, the three shipping names paid sizable
    payouts the first half of 2022

  3. Opportunities to monetize: (tweaking this one) Gains
    0-15% - Okay: CRM, SPI, GLNG, GSM2, APPN, COHR
    15-30% - Good: GNK, NM, ABEV
    5, CRM, GSM, ABBV, GOGL2,
    30%+ - Great: FLNG
    2, GOGL*4

  4. Realized losses: Losses happen, so this is tweaked to only mention losses when I consider them “ugly” or in extreme cases, “fugly”
    ARKF (ETF)*2, APWC, MRNA, TMC. And, ARKF(ETF)*2 - fugly

  5. ETF changes: additional BDRY nibbles, 1 ARKF nibble, 1 QQQ nibble, 1 XLF nibble - less progress after taking ARKF losses, 5.74% of
    self-managed port.

  6. Negative surprises: Abrupt pull-back - TMC, VATE, SBLK, APWC, TKLF, NMM, ZIM, GSL, GNK, NM, GOGL, (all those shipping names :frowning: )

  7. Positive surprises: MRNA (reverse course), CPNG (reverse course), FLNG (Div and fixing vessels),

The Top 10 holdings in the port per 6/30/22

  1. Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure (AY) - Utility - 6.87% Q1 6.63%
  2. Qualcomm (QCOM) - Technology - 5.71% Q1 4.75%
  3. Icahn Partners (IEP) - Financial - 5.56% Q1 5.26%
  4. Verizon (VZ) - Technology - 4.70% Q1 4.41%
  5. Golden Ocean (GOGL) - Shipping - 3.94% Q1 5.11%
  6. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) - Financial -3.92% Q1 3.66%
  7. Apple, Inc (AAPL) - Technology - 3.53% Q1 3.75%
  8. Star Bulk Carriers - Shipping - 2.99 Q1 3.21%
  9. Flex LNG (FLNG) - Shipping - 2.69% Q1 3.19%
  10. ZIM Integrated - Shipping - 2.61% new to Top10

Tier 1: (1.09% - 2.28% positions)

Tier 2 and Tier 3: Lots of smaller bets, each less than 1%

Primary sectors: Financial 17.9%, Shipping 17.6% (incl BDRY) & Technology 16.77%

Result for Q2 2022: -12.51%