As 2024 ended, I left the shipping basket on autopilot and let it do its thing. Whether that was a good idea or not, … well, that’s moot at this time. I just have to start working the port and plans going forward.
As we start a new year, I think I may change things around a little. Instead of a new thread at the end of each month, I might just keep everything in one thread, and update the thread towards the end of a given month. That might make it easier to follow what going on with the shipping basket.
So where am I with the basket right now?
Well, the shipping basket flipped to red sometime in Oct 2024, and then progressively got redder. I think right before Christmas was the low point. It has recovered some, but overall still red. A lot of moving parts with the various purchase points and dividend payouts. I think I am okay with starting the year at -11%, and adjusting as losses and gains change the basket. Ugliest position on an unrealized loss basis (prior to div) is likely TRMD. Since I’ve started a clean-up in 2025, LPG on a realized basis. CLCO also got dumped to start 2025.
That leaves
FLNG
TRMD
INSW
FRO
BWLP
LPG
HAFN
ZIM <
GOGL <
TEN-PfdE <
ECO <
ASC <
< entries are each under 5% of shipping basket
Well, the basket has nudged ahead some. Enough to motivate action from me. The big shipping development has been with Dorian (LPG). Basically, a reset of the position. But additional developments have occurred. Last week, I added to INSW. And today, two additional moves
01/19
It had looked quite positive thru the first full week of January 2025. Then, along came week 2, and by the end of it, the shipping basket had pulled back some. Some names e.g. HAFN or ZIM, slipped back even lower than start of 2025 - Ugh! Still, the basket is making progress in being less negative.
As noted in the OP, Cool Co (CLCO) has been dumped from the basket. Not watching it too closely. But, I will keep an eye on it until it approaches the 31st day after its exit. With the first newbuild not being fixed, that counted as two hurdles.
No revenue coming in
CLCO would be responsible for getting the vessel to operational state i.e. fuel, supplies, crew
To avoid a wash sale, I can restart a CLCO stake around Feb 9th. Will I want to then? I don’t know. I do sense Q1 2025 will work out better for CLCO. The 2nd newbuild will have delivered and started its long-term charter with GAIL (India). Also, it is quite likely that, at least one, of its two available LNG tankers had secured employment since late Oct 2024. If nothing else, there would be a status.
DHT has shared some data. Q1 rates for VLCCs in the low $30K’s. First thought, somewhat lower for the start of Q1. But, that was likely prior to the rate bounce on news of tighter sanctions this week on Russia. Will that stay, or will Trump decide to get chummy with Putin? No idea.
01/30
There’s still a day for January to officially end. But there’s a lot going on, so I thought I would update this thread. I mentioned in the OP that CLCO had been dropped. In January 2025, I have trimmed LPG so it now drops below a 5% level. Also, HAFN has had a slightly rough month and now has dropped below the 5% mark. I have not made any changes to the HAFN position.
At this time, I will just say the shipping holding that are above 5% are
FLNG, TRMD, INSW, BWLP, FRO
01/31
Ok, now the month Jan 2025 is officially over. Port improved a lot thru mid-Jan 2025, But, then took a dive again the third full week. However, there was some recovery the last full week (01/30 slightly better than 01/31).
So here I am, at the end of first month of 2025, and port is now @ -7.43%.
Have been picking and choosing spots to enter and exit some positions. But losses and gains, and most 2024 divs are included in the results. Other than FLNG, have made small adjustments on all significant shipping stakes.
For 2025, I still see some opportunities in shipping. But some are really presuming short term bounces. ZIM is a good example. That one is a play on a multi-dollar div.
As Feb 2025 draws to a close, am increasingly getting bothered by the shipping basket decline. For those companies that have reported- LPG, ECO, FLNG, etc. some price decline was expected. But, the market seems to have stretched the negativity even further. As an example, take FLNG. Okay results, rev projections for 2025 similar to 2024, div maintained. Does that deserve a 15 - 18% whack? Rational side says no, but it is starting to gnaw at my stance.
Slightly separate challenge for me, those cases where I own a shipping idea in both taxable, and tax advantaged accounts - FLNG, BWLP, TRMD, INSW. With two of them, I tried to negotiate thru the challenge with a plan. I focused on getting an idea to just one flavor. If I stretch the time-frame, I could say this occurred with CLCO. In Sep 2024, there was a complete CLCO exit in Roth ac. In early Jan 2025, decided CLCO exit was needed. For taxable ac, so far LPG has gone thru a systematic clean-up. No more LPG in Roth ac. High price LPG shared have been sold.
For Roth ac, TRMD and INSW are the picks that I’m working a “cost basis reset”. Different size positions makes comparison tricky. But INSW reset seems to be working better than TRMD reset.
02/27
Busy reporting day for shipping companies - BWLP, HAFN, INSW & CLCO.
As a quick metric check, divs for first three, CLCO - zero
BWLP 42c/sh
HAFN 2.5c/sh (most excess cash went to buyback)
INSW 70c/sh total (12c reg + 58c special)
03/02
Shipping basket had a very rough Feb 2025. Tried a couple of actions to reduce the carnage, with a little bit of success.
Trim positions and buy a little lower - worked a little with TRMD. Then it didn’t. Slightly better with BWLP which bounced a little prior to earnings. INSW turning out like TRMD
Closed out stake - ECO, ASC
The earnings story – Q4 2024 has generally been weaker for the tanker segment. The extreme case was CLCO - who decided zero dividend (CLCO had exited the port in Jan 2025, so no impact for me). FLNG maintained their payout. But FLNG price has taken a hit since results.
ECO, ASC, INSW - all lower (With INSW being able to argue its total div is lower, but its regular div was maintained)
Finished a more detailed review of BWLP a couple of days ago–
An additional point. The 12 VLGCs from the Avance Gas transaction did not all arrive in the BWLP fleet at once. This gradual injection means the Q4 2024 numbers are not a proper reflection of revenue and earnings potential. A couple of events in Q1 2024 conspired to create a rate spike in a normally not-so-strong quarter. In Q1 2025, BWLP does have a larger owned + charter-in fleet than it did in Q1 2024. But, I suspect the rate delta will mean Q1 2025 will not match Q1 2024 revenue, even with additional vessels.
03/13
Closed out the HAFN position in taxable ac. Smaller Roth ac stake exited in Jan 2025. So HAFN has exited the shipping basket. Tried hard to look for the upside. But not seeing it. Market looks iffy, and faces additional pressure from the decisions of a tariff-focused dictator and wannabe monarch.
04/12
End of a rough bouncy week. Decided to start a reset on some names. What does that mean?
Ideally, one would be buy low, sell high. Then wait. Hopefully, repeat.
With shipping that’s slightly harder. FLNG had that aspect. Until it didn’t. No, that’s not quite accurate. A portion of FLNG still had that aspect. The oldest portion of FLNG were purchased when the shares traded in the single digits. Even the second oldest FLNG shares were still holding onto gains. It started with the shares accumulated after this that represented a challenge. With the additional FLNG shares accumulated, too much burden placed on the cheaper shares. Averaging down had to stop. There were additional factors.
The gap year for one FLNG vessel. This adds to an existing vessel that is trading spot. Two vessels trading spot in a weaker market is a challenge.
The tariff fiasco. Who knows how that will play out?
FLNG CEO Kalleklev leaving. Again, the uncertainty factor.
The taxable side of FLNG needs a clean-up. After the 31-day window, I will focus on the Roth ac side.
With the whack due to market reaction to the tariffs, should I also be looking at other names? A good candidate there would be STNG. They probably de-risk the Chinese-built fleet aspect better than most.
TRMD going thru a reset. Unlike FLNG, less of a wash concern. The Roth ac trimming of TRMD already occurred, so now I can focus on taxable ac side.
Basket has a new name - nibbled on Scorpio Tankers (STNG).
Owned the name in the last year (Purchased in late 2023, exited in mid 2024). Decent cap gain + a couple of dividend payments.
New shares acquired for less-than-half the exit price. Sure, it is a different market environment. But, STNG has also made some positive developments - paid down debt, repurchased shares, and has a generally modern fleet.
Another small bite of Dorian LPG (LPG)
Restarting TRMD was tempting recently. But, I thought a little harder about it, and decided, “I can wait”.
New shares acquired for less-than-half the exit price. Sure, it is a different market environment. But, STNG has also made some positive developments - paid down debt, repurchased shares, and has a newish fleet.