HohumYNWA's Shipping basket Jan 2024

While the month has not ended, I can still start on the developments in the port.
-Trimmed my FRO stake twice. Then realized I had not valued FRO properly. So I jumped back in. No major impact to FRO stake.

  • Two nibbles in CLCO
  • FLNG below $30 is a buy for me - so multiple nibbles of FLNG (largest individual position)
  • New idea for port: LPG

Received an email from broker regarding my DSX warrants. In essence,

  • The “bonus” for exercise of 2 warrants is an additional share of DSX. The warrant exercise price is $4/sh. Seems like a deal, I think. Though I exercise the warrant at a higher price than DSX’s current price, every 2 warrants exercised provides me an additional share. So that makes my cost basis $2.67/sh on exercise of 2 warrants. There is a small window to exercise the options on these terms. Is this like - “Deal or No Deal?” situation? The warrants don’t expire until 2026, so will DSX come back with another sweetener if DSX mgmt don’t get the necessary proceeds from this first round?
  • Not sure why dry bulk shipping stocks are acting so positive in 2024. While this week was a plus for some vessel categories, the indices are not behaving with the trend. Won’t chase the names, will wait for the blip.

Well - the month has ended. Multiple nibbles of LPG, including a nibble in Roth ac.
From a holding perspective, 11 ideas in the basket
FLNG 32.01%
FRO 17.73%
CLCO 12.07%
TRMD 11.68%
INSW 7.17%
LPG 5.22%
GSL 5.13^

The rest of the basket is taken up by GOGL, TNP-E, STNG & DSX

The newest idea in the basket is Dorian LPG (LPG) . Am I falling into a dividend trap? LPG announced its Q3 div last week (company is on a non-standard schedule). While LPG maintained its Q3 div, spot rates for VLGC have plummeted to the low $20Ks daily. Does that put pressure on the Q4 div? Maybe. For one, it is only the first month. Two, cannot predict the rest of Q4. So, during the month other developments have occurred e.g. escalation of events in the Red Sea area. I am guessing that might change things again.

Dry bulk shipping stocks have been doing well YTD. Basket only has two dry bulk shipping names - GOGL and DSX. That’s because trading seems to have moved ahead of the market. Mentioned in another thread, I have some DSX warrants. The warrants can be exercised at a > current share price. But, my overall cost per share would be < current share price. How? DSX mgmt tossed in a bonus for exercise of every two warrants in a short window. TBD soon.

Happy with shipping basket so far. The conventional tanker names have performed well in the past month.