HohumYNWA's Shipping basket Nov 2023

Investment Analysis Clubs Hohum's RollerCoaster Ride
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As this month winds down, just musing that it has been an odd month. Been trying to wrap my mind around the dry bulk shipping sector. Have waffled on whether Q3 would be good or bad. Turns out it was profitable and it really depended on one’s angle i.e. was one expecting a price bounce or a steady div? The DSX results made me realize the dry bulk market was in decent shape, so I jumped back into GOGL prior to results. DSX had another surprise this week.
The big events

  1. DSX results, followed by a warrant offer to shareholders
  2. Build up of an INSW position
  3. FLNG’s good Q3, including a supplemental div
  4. Boosting TRMD stake prior to good Q3 results

FRO closes out the month with results next week. Today’s price bounce had me realize gains in traditional IRA account. Might sell additional shares closer to actual results. Worried that traders might expect a better div than the Q2 payout, and it likely does not occur. The additional VLCCs from EURN? At this time, I think a full qtr of revenue impact doesn’t occur till Q1 2024.

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Month ends with FRO results and the BDI doubling in the past month - wow!

For my shipping port, month ended up slightly on a down note. The tanker names started pulling back and bulker names started moving slightly higher. Having sold out of SBLK and NMM (not a bulker pure play), I missed out on this change. Luckily for me, I had more than doubled my BDRY stake (then a small trim).
Top Shipping basket ideas

  1. FLNG 31.88%
  2. FRO 19.21%
  3. CLCO 11.70%
  4. TRMD 8.86%
  5. INSW 7.01% (red)
    Among the smaller names, only DSX and ZIM are red

Slightly disappointed with FRO results. The EURN transaction is likely a plus in the long term. But for the near term, that new debt will represent a capital allocation challange. I mean, $2.1B is a lot of debt to add to the books in one swoop. The Q3 did not have to be a possible preview of the FRO dividend capacity going forward, but it may well end up being that way.