Holding Growth Stocks

Investment Analysis Clubs Where Angels Fear to Tread
22

Progress report on a rainy Saturday. January supposed to be best tourist weather here. But this year? Rain, rain, rain. Top of the hill, water standing on the flat and the slopes are sloppy wet. So, extra coffee and stand watch for NinjaVan delivery to bring my sax reeds. This is third strike day or they get sent back.

Anyhoo, how are the growth stocks doing for the new year? Not much, down 1.6% (Saul’s 12/31 stocks leaving out TMDX). I am up 5.1%. My BMW revert-to-mean stocks are up 8.2% on a theoretical, equal weight basis, and 9.5% as actually invested.

47% cash. I took RMD already so my beginning value for calculations is 12/31 minus the RMD.

I had 8 option positions Friday and I made a mistake on one of them. Bought to open instead of sell to open, one single SNOW put for $1.11. So, like taking Ben Franklin out to the parking lot and lighting a match. Plus, the hundred bucks I did not make had I sold to open. Man! $200 of rice and beans. 300 kg of that sticky, highly polished, ultra-white, diabetes feeding rice I could have stacked in the downstairs hallway. Gotta pay attention to the details, KC.

KC, whose sax reeds did not get delivered. :frowning:

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23

O.K., boys and girls, time to put this thread to bed. I wrote a post a few days ago but decided to close without sending. It noted Saul’s pivot and other stuff. I see that has been covered now. So, I will just note that he says he was 6 to 9 months late. I just note that this thread’s OP was 6 months ago, September. I note that by year end he was down an 24% and I was up 8%. This year he is up 7.6% and I am up only 5.6%.

I made up a growth stock index of the stocks Saul held at end of September. I equal-weighted them because I wasn’t racing with Saul as much as the concept of full invested in high growth IT stocks. The spreadsheet is auto-updating so I will look at it from time to time.

My “new” portfolio isn’t much to write home about. I subscribe to TickerTarget (just as Saul does) and he has outperformed me by 18 to 19% YTD. I don’t copy his GARP-ish approach portfolio because he has some stocks in there that I don’t like (for some visceral reasons, I guess). But if I am paying for his advice, and he has kicked my rear end, then maybe I should rethink. But he is all IT, all the time and I guess I want to deworse-ifi. Dunno.

By the way, Bert’s spidey sense is signaling that the “risk on” is beginning to begin.

KC (flat yesterday thanks to OPEC+ boosting OKE by 2.7%)

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I highly recommend the “Going to Bed” book, which I still have memorized many years after the fact.

Good memories of this.
I have to say I was much more animated than these videos online, plus I had some pretty over-the-top hand motions and acting that went along with each page. (pats self on back…way to go, dad)

Dreamer

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I think Bert might be an ok source of data or finding a stock or two…but not terribly sure how accurate he is, once you weed out the fact that everyone was fairly “correct” on most tech stock calls from 2017-Jan 2020.

I remember digging into a couple he liked, and unfortunately I can’t go thru my archives (hey…thanks for that, TMF…glad we kept the Saul board nonsense justifying ZM and DDOG at $60b mkt caps 2-3 years ago, but dumped my more useful posts in comparison…not that I am bitter or anything) but most didn’t go anywhere.

He always seemed to love infrastructure stocks that I literally see sold via my workplace/career and which I in no way thought was anywhere near scalable long-term in an environment of cloud-first CFOs and general inability of hardware to keep up with SaaS metrics.

Oh man…I just looked:
https://seekingalpha.com/author/bert-hochfeld

So that is likely where Saul’s new Samsara and Procore picks came from. oh boy.

Recent articles are on: ESTC (oh boy), U, ZI, AYX, NTNX (still?), AFRM, WIX, ADBE, OKTA, PTSG (again…infrastructure stock), TTD (sigh), ok…that’s enough.

It is a mix of former/current Saul board picks, with a sprinkling of stuff that wouldn’t get that board excited (like ADBE and ORCL).

Sorry. I am just a guy on the internet, but I trust my spidey sense more than his. On the plus side for him, if market/indexes stabilize and/or go up, all his stocks will go up (cementing “genius” moniker). Conversely, if the market goes down, they all go down, and he can just say “hey…everything gets hurt in a bear market like this”. Sound familiar? Well there you go.

Dreamer

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26

It was really quite simple.

All someone had to do, was put $10k into MNST (the Monster energy drink company) around 20 years ago, at $.05 cents per share.

Now worth $58. I imagine there have been a few stock splits along the way.

You would have made $11m, without even contributing more to your accounts.

No stress. No trading.
Just wonderful, glorious, Monster energy drinks, making you millions as you focused on living your life.

Plug that tidbit into your “if I ever get my hands on a time machine” to-do list.

Probably around 2006-2008, I developed a Monster Energy drink habit that exists to this day. Stock had exploded by then, so I probably figured “I missed that run”.

Monster Energy…the ultimate Growth stock. Who knew?

Dreamer

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Hansen Natural (HANS) was one of the best investments between 2000-2010: +6,500%.
Changed the name to MNST sometime after 2010.
Never owned it though…didn´t want to chase it.