Ayup...bout right, I suppose

So what is the long-term (3-5+ years) thesis for any high-P/S growth stock, when you see ZM, SQ, SHOP, OKTA, TWLO, SE, DOCU, UPST, ROKU, NFLX, META, SNAP, and countless other former stock darlings all back to 3-4 year lows?

With the exception of UPST (too young/little) and SNAP (too shaky) most of those are still growing and entrenched businesses.

Their growth rate slowed. That is it.

If you needed more proof that the game being played, especially from 2017-2021, was all about momentum and multiple expansion vs reality, I don’t know what to tell you.

  1. If stock growing at X, then buy no matter the price/valuation. Valuation don’t matter.
  2. See #1

Now we have people, despite being 3/4 thru the year 2022, still touting port gains since 2020 to show their method works.

I think the method does work, but either when a company is more unknown and/or in a bull market.
When companies start IPO’ing at $10b-20b+ mkt caps with P/S at 30-40+, you basically missed out on some of the easy gains. The venture capitalists (private money) benefitted.

TTD in 2017 and thru about May 2018 still made sense. Under-appreciated and under the radar. TTD is over-priced at the moment, but could drop 50% from current levels and still be a huge winner from early May 2018.

You can’t do that with SNOW or DDOG or ZM. All IPO’d at expensive levels, due to the then-known hype around SaaS.

Covid market’s irrational, and still not completely reversed, moves were an aberration. Instead, they were taken as confirmation of an investing model.

When you look at a group of numbers like this, do you really have to work hard to see which is an anomaly? 35, 70, 45, 250, 35, 60. See what I mean?

Take that same mindset and apply it to NFTs or crypto or SPACs, etc etc… Just a bunch of gambling.

I am keeping my eyes out for another TTD, but really hard to spot at the moment. Mostly cigar butts and broken toys out there.

Dreamer

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“Nothing is constant except change itself.”

Your eloquent posts don´t seem to be always understood or accepted on Saul´s.
Still, I agree very much with you, even if I don´t buy/sell so often anymore.
I wish I had sold all the stocks back in February 2021, when the portfolio hit a huge ATH (this might be a “hidden” pleonasm!).

The only stock I own it´s OXY (bought in the ´50s), I had big doubts, but now I regret I didn´t buy much more!

KS made a good point some days ago, money is not everything.

How about the SF thread, is it still alive?

Have a good weekend!

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How about the SF thread, is it still alive?


Which one is that?

Books & TV-Shows.

This is Good Stuff threads.
Yep. I did one recently.

I would add that I am enjoying the House of Dragon. Might not be for everyone, but I find myself looking forward to Sunday night’s new showing at the moment.

Lord of the Rings series on Amazon just launched. Haven’t watched yet…likely will tonight. Hopefully I am wrong, but I have lower hopes for that show for some reason.

On side note: when bored with nothing new to watch, I watch Banshee sometimes. That continues to be possibly the best non-stop action-packed first 4-5 episodes of any series ever made. So good.

Dreamer

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“On side note: when bored with nothing new to watch, I watch Banshee sometimes. That continues to be possibly the best non-stop action-packed first 4-5 episodes of any series ever made. So good.”

Dreamer, you nailed it!
I have been doing the same thing for some years now.
In fact, Banshee is the reason why I find it difficult to enjoy other new tv-shows.

With one exception: Warrior (the third season has kicked off production some weeks ago).

I recently watched Top Gun 2 and excepting the first five minutes (which gave me the goosebumps),
I found it too cheesy. I enjoyed more The Gray Man (although the first couple of books of the series are much better).

Books I wouldn´t recommend: The 6:20 Man and Dream Town by David Baldacci (I really don´t know how they made it on the bestseller list).

Books I plan to read in the next weeks: Babel by RF Kuang, Telluria by Vladimir Sorokin and Terraform by Brian Merchant.

Sorry for bringing the thread over here, next time I´m gonna look for the original one.