My portfolio continues to get bashed around, another hard month despite a general fightback in a lot of the names discussed on this board. I realised I need to be a bit more ruthless if the story changes and headwinds weigh down the stock, I was perhaps a little too late to sell Teladoc and similarly Peloton. Also my small cap picks, with a high risk, high reward profile have been absolutely decimated in this rotation. I think I was trying to be a little too cute looking for the next big thing and have therefore decided to reign that in a little bit. I’ve done some consolidation around my companies and I’m feeling better for it.
See details here. https://discussion.fool.com/horseplayandrew-update-nov-2020-from…
Performance to date
2021 > -6%
2020 > 209%
January > 29%
February > 23%
March > 1.7%
April > -6%
March 2021 - https://discussion.fool.com/horseplayandrew-update-mar-2021-3479…
February 2021 - https://discussion.fool.com/horseplayandrew-update-feb-2021-3476…
January 2021 - https://discussion.fool.com/horseplayandrew-update-jan-2021-3473…
December 2020 - https://discussion.fool.com/horseplayandrew-update-dec-2020-from…
November 2020 - https://discussion.fool.com/horseplayandrew-update-nov-2020-from……
October 2020 - https://discussion.fool.com/horseplayandrew-update-oct-2020-from……
September 2020 - https://discussion.fool.com/portfolio-update-from-london-uk-sep-……
March 2021 Activity
Peloton There has been a lot of discussion on the board already. I got out mid month when I decided a combination of the tragic treadmill accident and reopening of the
‘Great outdoors’ would continue to weigh on the stock. It feels like it’s becoming very much a battleground stock ala Teladoc. I’m still a customer and big believer in the trend and brand, so will be watching closely.
Skillz I lost patience with the continuous short attacks, share price movement and noise around this company. My conviction wasn’t high enough to withstand that so I’ve got out until I can see a few more earnings reports under their belts, demonstrating that paying user growth isn’t stagnating, they are capable of bringing in a higher quality of game, and hyper growth in India starts to materialise. I also don’t like the noise around the CEO and a dispute with his brother and a CFO departing after just 9 months.
DermTech There were many reasons to like this stock but I realised I had too many fliers in my portfolio and wanted to consolidate into some of my high conviction picks. They have a long way to go in gaining market share so I will monitor and look to get in again if they start executing revenue wise.
I have used the proceeds above to top up Roku, Crowdstrike, Sea and added considerably to Upstart. I think they are in for a stellar year so I wanted my position size to reflect that. I also have a fairly large cash position that I need to work out what to do with.
Crowdstrike A tier 1 company for me. Waiting on earnings but I expect another great update considering their bullish tone on the last call.
Upstart I’m really looking forward to their earnings next week. They have raised money, signed Drummond Bank, opening the door for the Auto loan market and so I would like to see a strong beat and raise on guidance to continue their momentum. I’ve topped up considering the pull back.
Roku Another company I consider a top tier holding for me. The headline here is the dispute with YouTubeTV/Google which I’d like to see resolved asap. Global ad spend looks like its gathering pace so we’ll soon find out how well positioned Roku is to clean up in the CTV advertising shift.
Sea No real news on Sea, earnings are around the corner. They continue to march onwards in South America and I am increasingly excited about the digital bank opportunity they have in SE Asia. A top tier holding.
Pinterest A hot topic on the board after a mixed earnings. I’m still a believer, I think they have put in a lot of hard work on the ad product side to monetize their high quality audience and their earnings report showed this is starting to pay off. I don’t think the market quite realises how Pinterest is redefining product search, it’s so far off being a social media company, users have a very high buying intent so they are positioned perfectly for the growth of e-commerce, video and search. However, the warning on MAU’s is less than ideal, it’s probably stalled the share price for the next 6 months until they can show seasonality is playing a big part here and they can get back on the road again to their pre-covid MAU growth. I have trimmed a little but will be buying on some tasty dips if the opportunity arises.
Fiverr Looking forward to earnings. They need to demonstrate that the enterprise push is working and they can keep the hyper growth going in a post Covid world.
Snowflake A potential candidate to top up more if their valuation continues to re-rate. You can’t really ask for more in terms of the product, management and opportunity - data is the new oil as they say.
Magnite I’m looking forward to hearing more about the SpotX integration but more importantly, the top line growth needs to keep trending up aggressively for the story to keep playing out.
Twilio A quiet month for Twilio. The only bit I struggle with is how quickly I see their share price doubling. Let’s see how earnings go.
Futu An offering didn’t go down well with the market just as the stock was breaking out. Their last earnings were hyper growth on all levels so as long as their earnings report continues that story I will be happy holding my volatile Chinese Robinhood. The Asian middleclass is just discovering stocks and investing so I see a massive TAM here.
Etsy - I am eagerly awaiting earnings as I am very concerned about their guidance and how the rest of the year plays out. Hopefully I’m being overly pessimistic here.
FuboTV There were a couple of exciting new pieces, getting exclusive rights for the World Cup qualifying games and they are creating a branded content studio to enhance their advertising revenue. The feud between YouTubeTV and Roku could lead to a nice boost in subscribers. I’m still willing to hold as long as subscriber growth keeps motoring ahead and their move into betting is rolled out this year with a clear vision attached to it. It’s very early days and therefore this stock is a complete rollercoaster.
Aterian Formerly known as Mohawk Group Holdings, they have had a shiny new rebrand (unfortunately there was a carpet company with the same name). They’ve had the short treatment and generally been beaten up in April. No real news has come out so I’m waiting until earnings to reassess my position here, still excited about their opportunity as they look to consolidate niche e-commerce products and utilise their software and tech to streamline their operations. An undervalued e-commerce play.
Stem Beth Kindig is a big believer in this company. They have now de-spaced, STPK is now officially Stem Energy. Early days as the leader in commercial energy storage, we need to see a few earnings reports to get a feel for their growth and momentum but I like investing in micro trends, green energy is very early days, and Bidens green bill is firing ahead. They have also booked all their forecast revenue for 2021 of $145m, the CFO confirmed a “four-fold expected increase in our 2021 revenue, 100% of which is covered by our contracted backlog”.
Lemonade I continue to hold them in my tax free account in the UK. Will keep them on a low profile here as this is more of a late-stage venture investment.
OpenDoor -Same as Lemonade, holding for the long term in a tax free account to see where they can get to in 5 years time.
Cloudflare Looking forward to seeing what they serve up in their next earnings. I am a little price sensitive with them but get the story.
ZoomInfo Thank you to Saul and several other posters for contributing to the analysis of this company. I am intrigued and will be looking into them further.
Nvidia I like the potential they have to keep serving up huge growth numbers at their scale with the tailwind of AI and 5G. The merger with Arm doesn’t seem clear cut so I’m a little hesitant to open up a position just yet. I am also looking at AMD.
Voyager Digital A coinbase and Robinhood rival that is on par with them in the download charts. Explosion of users and assets under management. Looks to be quite a compelling growth story for those comfortable with crypto. Looking for a pull back to get in.
HAAC Still excited to see what the ex Livongo guys bring to the table. Could miss out on the break out as the deal could be announced at any point.
CryptoI’m planning on opening positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Chainlink at some point this year, they are all due for a big correction soon.
Thanks for reading and best wishes from the UK - the pubs are now open again, hurrah!