TODAY’S FED DECISION IS REALLY BAD. LOOK OUT BELOW!
NAH, BRO - TODAY’S FED DECISION IS, LIKE, TOTALLY BULLISH. STRAPPING MYSELF TO THE ROCKET!
YOU ARE A CLUELESS MONKEY.
I LOVE BANANAS, BRO…ALL GOOD.
THAT MAKES NO SENSE.
MAKING DOLLARS AND CENTS, BRO!
I HATE YOU.
DON’T PLAYER HATE - APPRECIATE AND CONGRATULATE!
(this has been a recap of today’s Fed decision-fueled market action)
Dreamer
Under a giant heading of “Duhhhhhh!!!”
Of course we all knew this, right?
Dreamer
a few folks on Saul board regretting not posting their EOM summary about an hour ago.
Let’s see how the market closes.
Despite a rough month, I am sure they will all amazingly be up 67% or something totally believable.
Despite everything being 12-15% off their August highs.
What can you do. Recession will take care of all of this soon enough.
I have been calling for these Q3 ER’s, roughly in Nov for most stocks, to be the most telling of the year. The actual results may be ok, if a bit soft, but the Q4 forecast will be key. I think it will show softness and concern.
This is a weird part of the calendar, where it isn’t really fair to forecast all of 2024 yet, as those normally come in the Feb ER’s where you sum up how Q4 was and most companies will provide both a Q1 current Q forecast along with full year forecast.
I think the penny drops in November. Rates may drop earlier than expected too. First reaction may be “yay…markets love lower rates.” which is true, but the reason for lowering rates would be soft/bad economy, which probably whacks all stocks a bit.
I will continue to try and cherry-pick entries I like from now thru then. I am hopeful it is not a long recession and is rather just a good oppty to buy stocks lower before a new slow and steady bull market begins.
Enough with the 2020-esque plunges and rockets…give me some steady and investor-friendly growth, starting at some point in 2024.
Dreamer
I just stumbled across this projected recession timeline, complete with detail on the various stages.
Interesting that this sort of aligns with my Nov timing, too:
Per his twitter, he considers the upcoming earnings season the Intermission before Stage 3 commences. Just another guy on the internet’s opinion, and of course I like it because it feels similar to my gut thoughts. #BiasAlert #EchoChamberAlert
Dreamer
June thru August never actually happened.
It was a dream.
Just like with Bobby Ewing…
Dreamer
ELF down 11%.
CELH down 5%
ZI (remember them??) down 13%
But ANET is apparently a $60b company. Huh? Are they still putting CSCO out of business? They must sell only to cloud or telco, bc I don’t see them in my neck of the woods. Speaking of bloated infrastructure stock valuations, I see PANW about $75b mkt cap. Good company, pricey stock.
Blah sideways choppy mcchop market today.
Dreamer
Wow, that’s quite a drop for ELF now -12% for the day. I cannot find any news online to explain why.
BeachMan,
They are saying it is due to signs of slowdown in beauty industry.
Johnny
are you guys seeing this? massive amount of stocks up an unusual amount, along with a few continuing to be crushed like CFLT.
some real trash is up for no apparent reason…they couldn’t all have reported today. When I see this sort of thing, it doesn’t feel like real moves. Not sure how to explain that, but whatever. Expected some sort of final rally to maybe 4400 area, according to a bunch of macro TA punters out there, so perhaps that is playing out. Will see.
PTLO vs Saul stocks.
PTLO up over 7% at moment, after being down almost 5%. (wish my limit order would have hit!). PTLO is about 20% allocation for me, so I didn’t miss out, but would have liked to have done a swing trade.
Here is my “Saul stocks” tracker in comparison. Ouch on the bottom two.
Ouch indeed. More contributors to the broken toy pile.
Although I’ve for awhile had a software preference, I’ve now learned that I am personally not very interested in non-software except for maybe small positions and selling options, but as growth stocks these just seem even riskier than software (to me). Of course money can be made on any stock or other financial instrument and tsla stands as an example of a widget stock that made it to mega cap, but my model stocks are more like msft, crm, now.
Interesting to watch how stock picks have evolved in Saul world. I personally have not participated in the 2023 class of non-software tickers (same for 2023 software tickers, but I just didn’t find them as very compelling).
This seems sustainable. (sarcasm filter on)
a funeral home conglomerate
a penny stock for drones and train network connectivity
literally a stock for “AI”
a left for dead NET wannabe
a BNPL bellweather
a streaming services picks and shovels play
Seems legit.
mostlylong,
I have long had a bias towards “tech” and might just be I feel I understand it better vs my ability to predict if consumers will eat more snacks next year or if more cars will be sold, etc etc…
Our buddy Jamin Ball seems to indicate here that it may be a good time to be on sideline, when it comes to software:
Dreamer
Saul is out of GLBE…when will TTD be given da boot?
Still funny to me, as I sold out of GLBE (from my large position at the time) in Nov/Dec of 2021 at close to a double of today’s prices.
And I still expect GLBE to fall and retest 2022 lows at some point. Luxury ecommerce in a recession? Hmmm.
Maybe that board will latch on to Elastic ESTC next!
Dreamer
Kindly allow me to cherry pick while I wait for the standard time market open…
ONDS was up about 15% on the day to $0.471, three weeks ago when you posted. Does three weeks sustainable make? 
$1.13 now ($1.09 premarket). I see another insider made a “big purchase” yesterday, no market reaction.
KC
starting to get frothy in quite a few places. Very late 2021 feel (to me).
DDOG ramping up to $40b mkt cap. Think about how big that truly is.
ESTC up 35% today after 17% growth, although a 1/3rd of their rev is cloud segment up 30%. Still a GAAP loss type of company, of course. So that is worth 35% boost?
ULTA up huge.
GLBE is cool again, I guess.
PATH up 21% today on 24% y/y growth. Still GAAP loss. Ok…that seems totally worth it.
Fattening up the animals for slaughter, me thinks.
Dreamer
I agree.
That’s why I shorted the Nasdaq a couple of days ago.
I got burned pretty bad in the last two years, but I shorted stocks, not an index. Now I no longer have the guts to short a stock, but I would never short an index because the gains are really quite small.
Enjoy the weekend everybody!
Agree…Got to be clear about the entry and exit points/levels. Stick to the rules. Don’t overstay in the short position especially it if hits exit stops.
Here are some excerpts from my substack…2 days ago:
SP 500 and Nasdaq are both showing overbought signals…
18% of SP 500 stocks currently have an RSI of more than 70. Whenever this has happened before, markets tended to reset lower.
I also looked checked several stocks in my portfolio and on my watchlist. I quickly noted that many of them are showing similar overbought patterns. These included MNDY, SHOP, NFLX, MELI, CRWD, SNOW, NET, TWLO, ROKU, DDOG, ARKK, ZS, SQ, FOUR, SNAP….to name a few. As you can see from this selection, the FOMO (fear of missing out) has spread to many sections of the market - tech, financials, small caps and consumer stocks. If I keep looking, I am sure that I will find this kind of froth in other verticals too.
(2 days ago)…the volatility index VIX was up while the SP 500 was up too. This kind of divergence usually does not happen and could be signaling elevated risks in equities. A textbook trading red flag.
2024 macro could already be priced in
The US Feds have a tough job because their actions impact people and businesses around the world. They do not take their decisions lightly and, almost always, use data to forecast economic conditions and tweak interest rates. They deserve more respect than they receive.
That said, I get concerned when they give too many speeches. Especially, when those speeches are not coordinated, when they do not stick to the talking points and when they send conflicting and confusing signals to markets that hang on their every word.
> In Jan 2022, I wrote that the US consumer is stronger than they say they are. They have a higher tolerance for inflation of up to 3-4% and will keep spending, which in turn would support the US economy.
> Then in early July 2023, I predicted that the FOMC had one last rate hike in them and they would pause after that. I also wrote that the first rate cuts would happen in mid 2024. And I have always maintained that the Feds’ 2% inflation target is an arbitrary number that is not based on any economic magic. I suspected that the FOMC would change their inflation target to something higher than 2%
Well, here is how things have played out so far:
This is all good news, right? Yes, BUT …the problem is that the markets and even some US Fed members are getting ahead of themselves by perhaps declaring victory pre-maturely.
The everything rally party was on…the SP 500 gained more than 8% in Nov MTD. As per Bloomberg, it has done this only 8 times in 100 years!
Markets have crept up, stocks have been bid higher and investor portfolios are logging new all time highs.
It is time to get cautious again.
