Hashicorp = bad
Gitlab = good
Were their results that different?
Stocks popping 20%+ or tanking 20%+ in a seemingly random manner.
Doesnt seem like sign of stable market.
Dreamer
Easy peasy - yesterday, everything going up to the moon!
Today everything going down to the bottomless pit!
No matter what the actual report looks like.
Short interest in these stocks was high coming into earnings. AH stock price action is driven by algos âreadingâ key words in the report and trading accordingly.
The AH action is not retail driven and is algo & short interest driven.
Everything is not what it seemsâŚbut as you said itâs all fine 
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AI may tumble thru the hype phases, imo.
Some very real and practical uses already, but some others things will take longer.
I think an analogy is that we have had Autonomous Vehicle tech, and ability of an AV to traverse and empty track/course without issues or harm done, for many years now. But we still donât trust full AV on the roads, due to all the variables the real world throws at it.
AI is a game-changer. But what we think of as AI in 5 years and 10 years and 20 years, may make todayâs version seem utterly laughable. Like comparing your iPhone 14 to an iPhone 1.
Difference here is that while I am sure Meta, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, GOOGL and AAPL will all be huge players well into the future, there will probably be apps that explode onto the scene, much in the way TikTok did or Fortnite, and they ride that popularity and ease-of-use into potentially massive stock gains from lesser-known companies. Hard to pick the winners, is my point.
I think most people have a smart phone and many have an Alexa-powered device. That gives AAPL, AMZN, and Google an edge, potentiallyâŚif/when their voice assistants truly have AI-as-a-service capabilitiesâŚit would be like your personal AI assistant. Issue here is you are likely having your interactions part of training the greater ecosystemâŚso privacy concerns, I would think. What if you get hacked and records now show you asked your AI how to make a homemade bomb and for the location of an upcoming political event? But how useful would an AI not connected to the Internet be? Interesting challenge.
Either way, as interesting as I found ChatGPT and the image generator, when it launched in beginning of the year, I havenât felt compelled to use it again in a long time. There will have to be much more useful breakthroughs, for both gov/commercial/industrial/consumer uses, before the hype cycle can get to the next levels. Until then, I think things will calm down for a bit to marinate. We will see.
Dreamer
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A sort of throw away comment at the end of the article:
ââIâm optimistic that, over time, AI models can be taught to distinguish fact from fiction,â Gates said in a July blog post detailing his thoughts on AIâs societal risks.â
The question I have is, âWhose âfactsâ?â
And then this article, about which I have doubts:
Have a nice day, whatever your version of âniceâ might be.
KC
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Etsy CEO says
âConsumers continue to make very tough choices on where and how to spend their money,â CEO Josh Silverman said on a call with analysts.
Dreamer analysis: folks ainât spending money they donât have on stuff they donât need. At least not anymore.
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AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI AI
Which companies (publicly traded), besides NVDA, are actually making money here?
Gaming was 50% of their biz when I stopped owning them. I think it might be something like 15-20% now. Crazy growth in DC segment.
The weird thing isâŚI think the generative AI hype wore off a bit, and this is momentum buying (of AI compute) in anticipation of doingâŚsomething AI-ish.
Either this leads to a new plateau of generative AI solutions sweeping the world, or it stagnates for a bit. I am not sure which way it will go.
Funny thing is that, prior to 2020, the hype was still a bit mainly on potential of Autonomous Vehicles (AV) category, but that hasnât materialized yet. What if it does? I think practical real-world concerns keep that at bay for many more years, in normal driving environments. Might be a different story for industrial uses.
Dreamer
other funny thing is that NVDA is really just the picks and shovels play here.
the âkiller appâ has yet to be unveiled.
I still think it could be a truly AI-enhanced Siri and Alexa and whatever Google wants to call theirs, on personal mobile and in-home devices. This could also be watches and ear buds.
Privacy nightmare, but if they are sold/marketed as âpersonal AI assistantsâ that actually retain knowledge of previous interactions and who you are (vs Alexa being the same to anyone that uses it, for example)âŚthenâŚwow. Our own personal Jarvis.
That will blow the roof off of things.
We might just be headed to a world of half a dozen multi-trillion corps that gobble up everything and provide most of the services consumers use/want/need. Will be good for advances and bad for wealth/poverty divide. Job market will be wrecked.
So I think the Indexes might hold up thanks to breadth staying weird, but might see more and more other stocks (without the AI buzz) succumb to coming recession. Interesting times.
Dreamer
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We donât always appreciate the long sales cycles of complex technology solutions or major shifts in platforms an Enterprise undergoes. All the costs of prof/consulting/managed services that are sometimes needed due to lack of IT talent or skillsets.
It isnât as simple as âcontainers run on SnowflakeâŚthey will get all the container business now!â.
This reply nails it:
This is why ZM was doomed. Why Cisco is still king of networks, despite the ANET love. Why PSTG and NTNX never seem to ascend to the next level. There is simple a ton of competition in IT, and no one really seems to be doing anything completely unique.
Good. Fast. Cheap. Usually a number of ways/vendors/solutions to solve a problem.
But you can usually only ever get 1 of the 2: good/fast/cheap.
Every companyâs spending cycle reflects their budget, the motivation of their BoD and C-level, and not necessarily the best long-term technology solution.
I like investing in stocks, as do most here, and it is largely the basis on which I will retire (not real estate currently, and not relying on social security and my work doesnât have a pension plan).
But public stocks are a curse. Yes, they do it to raise money and get in the public eye, and sometimes just the act of going public leads to another up cycle of growth. But with the exception of Warren Buffett, every CEO on the planet seems short-term focused on the next Q, and acts accordingly with their budget and finances. All because they are worried about âpleasing their shareholdersâ.
Actually, Bezos was known for largely ignoring wall street and focused exclusively on growth, didnât he? Amazon is partly where it is today because he did NOT fall for that public company CEO mindset.
Makes me think we need to identify other CEOâs who donât seem concerned with wall street and instead literally do what they feel is in long-term interest of the company.
David Simon of SPG may fit in that category. One ornery dude on ER calls. Result? A-rated balance sheet/credit, and was able to accumulate and grow a friggin mall business during a lockdown in a pandemic.
Hmmm.
Dreamer
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âThese SaaS stocks are still waaaaaay off their 2021 highs. These are cheap! We are back, baby!â
Jamin Ball says:
And he is literally the SaaS guruâŚ
Dreamer
Who was this quote from? Just curiousâŚ
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It is a generalized summary of what my imagination hears when perusing the wisdom of online bulls since May.
Instead of Generative AI, it is Generative Dreamer.
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Dreamer,
Does SPG face the same concerns that other REITS/ commercial real estate stocks face currently. âŚthe perils of higher interest ratesâŚwhen the time to refinance comes, will they not be affected? and when recession occurs??
I see some holding shape better than others and so wanted to ask you since you follow this closely.
thanks
Charlie
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Charlie,
Happy to help, but all this can be found with simple search. Typically the most recent ER transcripts are filled w useful info on how company is doing in real time and how they are forecasting their ability to perform in short term.
Turning to the balance sheet. We completed the refinancing of nine property mortgages during the first half of the year for a total of $820 million at an average rate of 6%. Our balance sheet is strong. We have $8.8 billion of liquidity
And you can scroll previous ERs for more color as rates started rising starting last year and see how CEO responded.
Brad Thomas loves his REITs and shares why SPG near $100 is compelling (i will wait for $90 because a general market recession should provide that entry):
The short answer is SPG has long cherished their reputation as having best in class balance sheet and finances in the retail reit space.
Dreamer
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Thanks Dreamer. Very helpful to see how a solid company can keep functioning regardless of macro concernsâŚ
the ARM ipo should end wellâŚ
Just like SNOW will be a $500b mkt cap, like, imminently (said by TMF posters in last couple years).
Handing out $1T valuations like candy at the Labor Day paradeâŚmakes sense.
Arm said in its prospectus that revenue in its fiscal year that ended in March slipped less than 1% from the prior year to $2.68 billion. Arm reported $524 million in net income, down 22% from 2022.
Arm is riding the wave of excitement around artificial intelligence to raise investor capital. It could kick open the market for technology IPOs after a nearly two-year pause. Itâs set to be the biggest technology IPO of the year.
Armâs valuation for a chip company is exceedingly rich when compared to any player in the market other than Nvidia. At $55.5 billion, Arm would carry a price-to-earnings multiple of over 106, based on profit in the latest fiscal year.
AI
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Dreamer.ai
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Good assessment.
$54-55 billion seemsâŚexpensive. As I posted in another category (I think thatâs the right term), I bought ARMH in 2003 for $3 and change and did very well when it was acquired 13 years later.
Still a major player in the semiconductor arena but at the IPO valuation cited? Iâll pass.
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Databricks also going to be north of $40b mkt cap IPO. What is the point?
In world of technology, disruption and competition is the norm.
I think too many investors have this simplistic process of looking at outliers like Google or Microsoft and assuming companies will go up forever.
They all canât. The enterprises they sell to, canât afford to buy everything out there and/or canât afford to constantly increase their spending budgets of all the stuff they do buy.
This was the problem I had with ZoomâŚsure they had pandemic-fueled growth, but I guess people that didnât work at a windows-based company had never heard of Skype/Teams or even WebEx. Outside of Dell-related calls in 2021, I havenât been on a Zoom call since. The most common runner-up these days is Google Meet (which I am not a fan of).
This sometimes works in Saulâs favorâŚdonât overthink the tech, just follow the numbers, and do not get emotionally invested in any companiesâŚjust sell when numbers change. Ok. That seems to work in bull markets and/or bear market rallies, when valuation doesnât matter. Databricks will likely be lumpy, but I wonât be surprised to look up in 5 years and mkt cap still at or under the week after IPO price.
Also - todayâs UP market seems thin. I think the mega caps holding it up today. Reversal coming?
Dreamer
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Opened 10% over the IPO price, closed up 25% for the session. Just another day on Wall Street. 
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âExactly 15 years ago, on September 15 2008, a US investment bank collapsed and changed the financial world forever. Or, did it?â
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