Hot Takes! (this is the Hot Takes thread)

FAANG is dead.
Long live FAANG!

yw,
Dreamer

:thinking: but… but… we still have an A, right?
Long live A! :smiley:

is that A for Apple growing services at a whopping 6%?

Methinks they gone and done peaked, too.

For All Mankind is/was a kickass Apple TV show. That’s all I liked.
My iphone 13 pro max is pretty sweet. Apparently they gave some of them a new paint job and called them iphone 14’s and the market isn’t having it.

They raised prices of Apple Music. (not paying for it)
Bought the prev gen of ear buds when they released newer version…my kid always uses them.

My other kids still using 4-5 old android phones, and don’t even complain. They cared more about their gaming laptops (long live NVDA!).

So I never have gotten the hype with Apple. What is point of an iPad unless for a kid, and at that point, just buy a cheap android version, cause the kids destroy those things anyway.

I hate the two-party political system, and I hate an Iphone/Samsung world…give me more options and competition! Instead they corner you and raise the prices.

Dreamer

4 Likes

Yeah, the hype is strong in that one.

iOS and Android feels like being stuck between a rock and a hard place. You either get some resemblance of privacy - but stuck in a truly walled garden that shall not be tinkered with, or you choose “freedom” and go with something controlled by an advertising and data mining company.

That A is for something that keeps bothering me whenever I ponder about the bear market we’re in.

// Raylight

I think Dreamer said ZI was over-rated and over-valued, like, over a year ago.

Yeah - speaking about myself in 3rd person. Also speaking #truth.

ZI. Sheesh. All the houses built on cards coming a-tumbling down.

Dreamer

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ROKU!!

Streaming hours up 90% y/y, but outlook gloomy and money-losing forecast lead to 20% plunge. At dec 2018 levels.

Watching this one tomorrow and may bite if goes down further.

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grrrrr!!!

If I would have accepted 18% down in AH yesterday or pre-market today, I would have made 15% already.

Greed? Maybe. But it seems when a company is down 15% or more, they are usually down over 20% on ER / bad news beatdowns. I kept trying for $43.99.

Que sera sera…

Dreamer

$NET
$TEAM
$TWLO

SaaS is different.
Higher GMs.
Old school investors just don’t get it.

In the meantime…stocks all falling back to pre-2020 levels. Some already at 2018 or lower.

You can’t make this stuff up.
But, but, but…“this time is different”.

If you make 200%+ in 2020, and then lose about 70% in 2022 holding basically the same stuff, does it say something perhaps about the irrationality of the 2020 performance? Hmmm?

DoctorDoom…you were a year too early, buddy.

Dreamer

3 Likes

Today’s “Hot Take” is:

Fade everything.
Everything eventually retests their lows.

All of a sudden, TTD close to 11% from 52 wk low.
GLBE still a ways off, but closing the gap fast with a big down day at moment.
PTLO stubbornly high.

SPG already came back down once after rising from June lows…not sure if it will again.

But TTD, PTLO, and GLBE are three companies I like whose stocks have stubbornly stayed up since rising from their respective June lows. Will they revisit and/or eclipse those lows? I hope so! Then I can finally get back in.

Dreamer

1 Like

DOCN on sale today, for those still interested in the stock.

Seems like a well-run company, but macro concerns holding me back, as their core clientele is smb/start-ups and not sure how great this economic backdrop will be for those types over next few Q’s.

Having said that, if we continue having BMRs along the way to a final capitulation, I could see this being an easy bounce-back.

Dreamer

2 Likes

UPST halted.
What do we get…$13/14/15 at the extreme end?

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KC is browsing that table near the checkout where last year’s end-of-summer, discontinued, look-what-we-found-in-=the-warehouse items are marked down an additional 25%. Yes, tossed some UPST and AFRM shares in the cart and breezed through the lonely checkout counter. What could go wrong with this company with the robust balance sheet as we head for the end of the tightening cycle and a return to the halcyon days of Helicopter Ben and the sunlight heights of low inflation, economic expansion??? Oh!, I have slipped the surly bonds of reason danced through the clearance sale aisles on laughter-silvered wings. Strawberry fields forever!!! Look at these cigar butts among the greenery!!! There is a good 2" of fine Cuban 'bacca left in that charred leaf!!! Come!!! Join me in the frolic. OMG! These were on sale at $24 last… week??? Whatever.

The band is playing somewhere , and somewhere hearts are light; And somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout, But there is no joy on Wall Street for UPST has dropped its unmentionables in the punchbowl. Come lads!!! Help me gather up these fractional shares of the future earnings of this fine, cutting edge, what’s-good-for-the-masses-of falsely labelled credit risks-is-good-for-America company. What could go wrong???

KC, whose knee is thankfully fully recovered, allowing a sharp to-the-left cut at aisle 14 and a sprint to the AFRM display. Oh! the Joy!!!

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Public Service Announcement: There was an uptick on UPST. Those shares that I stole at $13.99 are now being gobbled up at $14.11. Three-day rule??? What three-day-rule?

KC

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Saul’s board blows my mind.
Posting “TTD Earnings Beat!” or whatever.
They did 31% y/y.

Where were all these clowns when TTD was growing 40-50% for years, when stock went from $4 to $30?

Typical approach by folks with no radar regarding valuations.
I am, ironically, disappointed with the TTD ER bounce. It will probably fade…dunno.

UPST continues to break hearts. TTD continues to confuse brains.

Still waiting for bear market capitulation. That will probably make everything clearer, when it does happen.

Dreamer

2 Likes

I believe mekong22 has been a long time holder of TTD. As for the rest of them, no idea.
As for me I’ve been holding TTD since I read about it from you Dreamer!!
I was holding out for about $40 to add to my position, we’ll see if it drops later.

zoro

2 Likes

listening to call.
amazing how little has changed in 5-6 years.
not necessarily negative, as the thesis is intact, but the mantra continues to be “ctv will be huge”.

Asia/China question being asked now, and that was supposed to be a mammoth market, but has done little since 2018 it seems. That can be more due to China and their reluctance to let foreign companies profit at their expense. My guess is China is/has stolen all the data/tech from TTD and has local competitors doing a lot of the work TTD would be doing.

Green blamed it on China covid lockdowns.

But I remember International was 15% of bus years ago, and now it is 10%. That is despite overall growth rate dropping in recent years, yet somehow the Intl is “still” growing 100% y/y. Doesn’t quite add up.

Dreamer

1 Like

UPST “only” down about 10% now.
My unfilled $13.99 limit haunting me. Que sera sera.

10% down is like a random Thursday in this prolonged bear market, so not really a big deal at moment. I would have added more under $14, but likely to stand pat otherwise. Not like they will have a good ER next Q, so I see UPST as a longer-term play. Provided they stay in business AND their model truly is better than FICO, hard to see this not being much higher in a couple years.

But I am just a guy on the internet.

Dreamer

2 Likes

CPI print well-received.
Because it was .2% below expectations. Round up all the villagers and meet in the town square for a party!

Might be start of new BMR or 1-day wonder. We shall see. Might gain back most of the 2% I lost this week as I deployed cash.

Glad I got close to 30% invested, but wish another week of punishment had passed, as it would have gotten TTD even lower, GLBE probably below $18 at that point, and maybe PTLO would have faltered. Oh well.

Let’s see if/how fast these can run up, and if I am tempted to just take profits or hold thru EOY.

Dreamer

1 Like

Yup.
As of this moment, gained all the week’s losses back.

-12% YTD.

Will this hold and rally build on gains, or will the carbonation fizzle all away, leaving you with a soda that takes like regret?

Dreamer

1 Like

Interesting that the Saul stocks are getting a lot of love this morning. In recent weeks, my boring energy and consumer goods got a better bump than tech in the BMR’s This morning it’s not so. Does it mean anything? Got any legs? Anybody know? (<- not a serious question)

1 Like