I can pretty confidently say that I’m NOT very smart when it comes to my investing career. I’ve been wrong lots of times, but have had my share of winners enough to keep me interested. As I’ve posted here in the past, I have been in 85 - 95% Cash the past couple of years waiting for the “BIG CRASH” that folks have been talking about here and just about everywhere else for the past couple of years. ie - The market is overvalued by historical measures.
So not being all that smart, I started to think about how many other people have been sitting on the sidelines like me, and when the BIG CRASH does come, will everyone pile in all at once forcing equity prices back up quickly?
I’m trying to put some more thinking into how I’m going to get back into the market after equities are no longer as overvalued as they are today…
Some say dollar cost average and there have been some great posts here and over the BRK board about that strategy.
Others say if you’re happy with the price to buy, then just buy all that you wanted to buy all at once.
Others have also said that there can be dead cat bounces along the way, and quite possibly the market can take months or even years to complete a bear cycle.
I’m not in a huge hurry to get back into equities, and when I do, I’m sure not going to put all of my eggs into equities. I’m leaning towards dollar cost averaging back in for my preferred strategy as I am not good at timing the market. (I know, most will say, but '38, you ARE timing the market by converting all to cash back then to try to get back in at a later / lower cost!)
I am wondering if there is a Fed report (ones that Wendy often cites in her weekly posts) showing the amount of cash that is on the sidelines, and if that graph is going up or down. I suspect that the cash amounts may be going up if others are thinking defensively like me, but I don’t really know what / where to check for this.
Interested in other’s comments! Thanks!
'38Packard
- retired and doesn’t spend a lot…