Cash on the sidelines!

The below graph shows the funds in money market. From the below graph it seems $3 T is a steady rate, which climbed to almost $6 T. There is a lot of money moving in to MM funds chasing higher yields.

I am not sure how much of this will find its way back to stock market, if and when the yields start falling. However, in any sharp sell-off this could act as a PUT.

The below graph is for the SP500 annual returns. In the last 96 years only 30 times SPY declined ( so it pays to be optimistic!!) and out of that only 10 times SPY decline is between 0% to 10%. In other words, when the market declines the chances are it is going to be higher than 10%; However, only 6 times the decline exceeded, and in the last 50 years only 3 times, they are 1974, 2002, and 2008. 2022 came very close (-19.44%) hence deserves honorable mention

I am planning to sell $300, $350 SPY Jan 25 puts. You may want to keep in mind, 2024 is election year, so anytime after May, till the election there is going to be lot of uncertainty, volatility. (Remember on the night of Trump’s victory futures went down 5%, great buying opportunity in retrospect) That will offer more opportunity to sell some deep out of the money puts.

For individual names you need to have a fundamental view. With Index, you can do these sort of trades mechanically.

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In 34 of the past 95 years, the U.S. stock market has finished the year with gains of 20% or more.