Let’s assume you have researched the living bananas out of the coming electric vehicle revolution & transportation disruption. And sure, you have some TSLA stock. But you really think the best way to profit from this coming disruption is to bet against the biggest losers, who will be the oil companies.
What are some possible routes to take?
Number one rule: The market doesn’t care what you think.
Number two rule: Never ever ever ever use Macro Economic analysis to make equities investment decisions.
Number three rule: Invest with the trend.
Since about 500 years ago, the trend for the vast majority of humans has been increased wealth. (Roughly 500 years ago the native American Indian social structure in the Americas was completly destroyed, I believe that this was the last continent wide calamity in history.)
If one follows these rules, rather than look for shorts, one will look for companies that are growing their business at a rapid rate. Preferably ones that are doing it with low debt and have recurring revenue.
Finally, if you insist on pursuing shorts, then look for these things.
Conn’s Appliance (CONN) is a regional retailer marketing to the working class in the oil dependant region of the Gulf Coast.
It has debt, no profits no dividends.
The other thing to consider are bonds from oil dependant municipalities that are dependant on oil revenue.
Look for poorly run places that have been loaned money on thier good fortune not on thier assets.
Personally, I have made those kinds of investments and made a small fortune doing it. Unfortunaly I started with a large one.