Hey Saul fans,
I watched this video a few weeks ago and have been replaying it in my mind ever since. There’s a lot of great info in here that I personally cannot find a strong rebuttal to (though perhaps some on this board can).
Its a long video (60 minutes), but well worth the time if you have it:
If not, here are some of the highlights
+Tony Seba (speaker) predicted $0.035/kWh solar production cost by 2020 in a book that came out in 2009. He laughed at (at the time the cost of solar was $0.30/kWh.) We hit that number in 2016, so his “crazy” prediction came true 4 years early.
+In 2014 he predicted “several” 200+ mile plus affordable EVs on road by 2017/2018. Again, laughed at. Model 3/Bolt prove him right.
+Energy storage-as-a-Service is here. He gives the example of a company that goes to a business (hotel, retailer, convenience store) and installs a battery $0 up front. The battery charges itself at low rates, discharges itself at high rates. The business uses the exact same amount of electricity but saves a ton of money. The cost savings are divided equally between the company and battery SaaS provider . 10%-50% energy cost savings in total. I find this fascinating.
+69% of companies are actively pursuing solar projects (in discussion or projects in progress).
+solar at $0.058/kWh is competitive with oil at $10/bbl and nat gas at $5/MMBtu. (I believe he is referring to electricity production only).
+Utility scale solar is currently reaching ~$0.04/ kWh. Recent announced unsubsidized solar projects include Chile - $0.0291/kWh. Abu Dhabi - $0.0242/kWh. These prices do not include storage but are still incredible and are using currently available technology. Imagine what the numbers look like as cost/efficiency continues to improve.
+Tuscon electric recently announced solar + storage at “less than” $0.045 / kWh.
+25% of homes in Austrailia have solar (where electricity transmission costs are higher than US)
+“Peaker” utility plants are already obsolete.
+Self-driving taxi service already available in Singapore.
+By 2022 low-cost electric cars (~$22,000 car) cheaper than internal combustion engine.
+Storage-as-a-service battery cost brought down to $1 per day by 2020. If you only need 4-6 hours of storage time per day (to just avoid peak prices) that’s a cost of $0.25 / day for storage, or about $8/month.
+Oil usage peaks in 2020 at ~100 MM barrels day. Falls to ~70 MM barrels/day by 2030. Many investments being made today in new oil production will be abandoned.
- Solar/storage meets 100% of world’s electricity needs by 2030. This prediction sounds particularly insane given that its 1% or so today, but Seba argues that exponential growth is on the horizon and gives many examples of this happening in history (cell phones, computers, color TV, telephone, frige, cars)
+Transportation-as-a-service (TaaS) (basically fleet of autonomous vehicles on the road that you pay to use per mile) launched by 2021. 4-10x cheaper cost than current car ownership. 95%+ of passenger miles TaaS by 2030.
+Unsubsidized cost of solar at home of $0.04/kWh by 2020. That’s less than the cost of energy transmission alone today.
+70% of non-conventional oil (deepwater oil, shale oil, oil sands) will be uneconomical and abandoned by 2030
+A few years after TaaS is launched ICE cars will have a negative resale value. You will have to pay someone to take an ICE car off your hands. (again, sounds crazy, but this is pretty much the case today for non flatscreen TVs right now).
Crazy stuff, right?
Anyway, I’ve given this video a lot of thought over the past few weeks and have started to unwind my fossil fuel based investments. I also now wouldn’t touch an automaker (not named Tesla), utility, or energy company, even with prices haven falling to where they are today.
If you have valid argument on why Seba is completely wrong I would love to hear it!