Saul's portfolio end of July 2022

MY PORTFOLIO AT THE END OF JULY 2022
This was a 5-week summary.

I don’t remember any other decline as bad as this one, except for 2008. This one has been going since last November, more than 8 months now, and has been very painful for me, and I’m sure for you too. All my main companies keep reporting good to excellent results, but it didn’t do them any good, they went down with everything else.

However in the last twelve weeks things seemed to have leveled out. A number of my companies like Bill, Crowdstrike and Sentinel, haven’t closed at a new low in over 11 weeks!!! That’s almost three MONTHS! For Mongo the last low close was over 8 weeks ago. For Cloudflare, Snowflake and Datadog it was over 6 weeks ago.

Does that sound as if we are still in free-fall? And some, like Crowdstrike, Bill and Mongo, have been moving up steadily ever since. Granted, they all have a long, long way to go to get back to where they started at.

I’ve explained how back in May and June my portfolio closes hit the same low FIVE times, within a range of 2.1% from highest to lowest, which I considered within the margin of error with the eight different stocks making up my portfolio each wandering around independently over a period of five weeks! For the curious, those lows were:


**May 11	-64.8% 	or 35.2% of what I started with**
**May 18 	-65.2%	or 34.8% of what I started with**
**May 24 	-65.7%	or 34.3% of what I started with**
**Jun 13 	-66.5%	or 33.5% of what I started with**
**Jun 16	-66.9% 	or 33.1% of what I started with** 

And it bounced each time. To me that meant that there was strong support at that level, and that a lot of buying came in and stopped the decline. It’s now been 10 weeks, two and a half months(!), since that last low on June 16! My portfolio has had no new lows!.

Since then there has been lots of anticipated bad news like interest rate hikes, that some pessimists felt would kill the market, but it hasn’t happened. I simply don’t believe it’s going to happen. I feel lots and lots of bad news is already priced in.

Sure, I could be wrong! I know literally nothing about technical analysis. It could be a false bottom. So don’t follow what I am doing. Make your own decisions.

I have learned long ago that sticking with great companies wins out in the end, and beats market timing (looking at a long term chart of the S&P you will see that the horrendous declines of the past look like tiny dips on an ever-rising graph), but living through this decline was awful.

I can’t be sure that it has ended, but I know that our companies have secure recurring revenue, and that they are growing very rapidly, at rates almost never before seen for companies at their scale, and considering these facts really makes our companies seem way oversold to me. But that’s just my opinion.

MY RESULTS MONTH BY MONTH FOR 2022

Here’s a table of the monthly year-to-date progress of my portfolio for 2022.


**End of Jan 		-28.9%**
**End of Feb		-26.6%**
**End of Mar		-29.0%**
**End of Apr		-43.6%**
**End of May		-59.7%**
**End of Jun		-57.1%**
**End of Jul		-58.3%**

Although it has stabilized in the last three months, as you can see, my portfolio is still down 58% since the beginning of the year. It’s up 26% from its low [41.7/33.1 = 1.26], but down 58% ytd is still just awful! If you are wondering how I can be so calm about it, look at the next section (Cumulative Results).

CUMULATIVE RESULTS
For those wondering about the long term results of investing this way.


**2017 – up         84.2%**
**2018 – up         71.4%**
**2019 – up         28.4%**
**2020 – up        233.3%**
**2021 – up         39.6%**
**2022 – down       58.3%    first 7 months**

Cumulative – up 686.5%

Okay, in spite of the worst sell off you could imagine in our stocks, as bad as 2008 when the economy was actually failing, banks were going bankrupt, unemployment hit 10%, etc… my portfolio now has 786.5% of what I started with five years and seven months ago. In the same time the S&P 500 has risen 83.9%. That’s up 84% compared to up 686.5%! Figure out for yourself which method gets you the best results?

HOW DID THE INDEXES DO?

Here are the results year to date:

The S&P 500 (Large Cap)
Closed down 13.3% YTD. (It started the year at 4766 and is now at 4130).

The Russell 2000 (Small and Mid Cap)
Closed down 16.0% YTD. (It started the year at 2245 and is now at 1885).

The IJS ETF (The S&P 600 of Small Cap Value stocks)
Closed down 7.6% YTD. (It started the year at 104.5 and is now at 96.6)

The Dow (Very Large Cap)
Closed down 9.6% YTD. (It started the year at 36338 and is now at 32845).

The Nasdaq (Tech)
Closed down 20.8% (It started the year at 15645 and is now at 12391).

These five indexes averaged down 18.3% ytd. Their average was up by 3.2% this month.

EARNINGS SEASON
Aug 4 – Cloudflare, Datadog
Aug 8 – Upstart, Monday
Aug 18 – Bill
Aug 24 - Snowflake

LAST THREE MONTHS REVIEW

May. I still have the positions in Crowd and Mongo that I took in April, and the size of my Crowd position has grown quite a bit. I sold out of my Monday a week before earnings, but now have taken back a small piece, which is less than 2% of my portfolio. In other words, I still have eight of the nine positions I had at the end of April, and if you want to call my small piece of Monday a position too, I still have all nine.

June. This month I sold out of Zscaler and built up what had been my three smallest positions. I added quite a bit to Crowdstrike, less, but still significant amounts into Mongo, and Monday. I also added small amounts to Cloudflare and Sentinel. I sold out of Zscaler because: I was concerned about its very long sales cycle, and because it seemed to be getting more competition from Palo Alto and Cloudflare, and also because, while companies like Datadog, Crowd, Cloudflare and Sentinel seem to be innovating like mad, Zscaler seemed happy to stay the successful “rut” that it was in. Add in that billings growth came in considerably below expectations for the last two quarters, and the CFO called out billings as fortelling the future, I decided to exit. It may do very well but I just had better places for my money. I’m happy with the changes I’ve made.

July. My portfolio hasn’t closed at a new low for two and a half months now. I took no new positions and didn’t sell out of any positions this month. I fiddled around a little, with very small trims and adds, but nothing major. Datadog has come back to the pack this month as it was down significantly this month, on no news but just recession fears (because its growth was reduced significantly for a quarter during the first Covid quarter).

Please remember that I could change my mind tomorrow about any position I discuss today, depending on new information or other factors, and I may not do another update until the end of next month. Make your own decisions. Don’t just follow mine. I make mistakes at times! Guaranteed!

HOW THE INDIVIDUAL STOCKS HAVE DONE YTD

Here’s how my current positions have done so far in 2022. I’ve arranged them in order of percentage gain. As always, I’ve used the start of the year price for stocks I’ve been in all year, and my initial buy price for stocks I’ve added during the year. I tend to keep buying as a stock price rises, so in a rising market my average price is almost always higher than my starting price.

Please remember that these starting prices are from the beginning of 2022, and NOT from when I originally bought them if I bought them in earlier years. (For instance, I bought Cloudflare in July of 2020 at $34.97, but it’s listed below as starting at $131.50, because that was its price at the start of this year)


**Monday from 107.81 to 102.73		down 	    4.7%   New in May**
**Mongo from 387.16 to 312.47		down 	   19.3%   New in Apr**
**Crowd from 231.39 to 183.60		down       20.7%   New in Apr** 
**Bill from 226.25 to 135.08		down	   40.3%   New in Feb**
**DataDog from 178.11 to 102.01 	        down	   42.7%** 
**Sentinel from 50.49 to 24.85		down	   50.8%**
**Snowflake from 338.75 to 149.91	        down	   55.7%**
**Cloudflare from 131.50 to 50.32	        down	   61.7%**

DON’T MISS THIS SECTION!

How much our stocks were down ytd (the list above) is a really ugly picture, but let’s look at how much each is up from its sell-off low, from its low since this decline started.


**BILL, from $89.9 to $135.1		up      50.3%	!!!**
**MDB, from $213.4 to $312.5		up      46.4%	!!!**
**CRWD, from $130.0 to $183.6	        up      41.2% 	!!!** 
**SNOW from $110.3 to $149.9	        up      35.9%	 !!**
**S, from $18.64 to $24.85		up      33.3%	 !!**
**NET, from $38.96 to $50.32		up      29.2%**
**DDOG, from $81.1 to $102.7		up      26.7%** 
**MNDY, from $87.05 to $102.73	        up      18.0%**

That is a pretty awesome list. Just look at it! Most of my companies are up between 25% and 50% since their lows!!! Weren’t the trolls telling us that they were going to keep falling pretty much forever?

Granted, they have only gone back up a small part of what they have fallen, and they still have a long way to go, but with all the talk of “It’s going down! It’s going down!” it’s easy to lose sight of “Wait a minute, it quit going down many weeks ago. It has turned around and started up.”

It’s interesting that Datadog is up next to the least from its low, considering that for most of us, it’s our top position (it’s only an 18% position for me), but it shows once again why I no longer keep any 30% or 35% positions, no matter how confident I am in the company. Whenever I have, they have done worse than my portfolio as a whole, probably because when I have been super confident in a stock, everyone else has been too, and the stock gets bid up too high.

Maybe our powerful SaaS companies are silently slipping back into favor. Perhaps it’s starting to sink in that if there is a recession, the business of a SaaS company won’t get killed to the same extent as the business of a traditional company. In fact it probably still be growing, even if not quite as fast.

But who knows? I could be totally wrong and everything could turn back down on Monday. I’m sure the Market Bear will make further attempts to push our stocks down. We’ll just have to see what happens.

POSITION SIZES

I didn’t add to sell out of any positions this month. I still have the same eight positions total, in “roughly” the same order, and eight is a comfortable number for me, . Here they are in order of position size, and bunched by size groups.

**.** 

**Datadog			18.0%**
**Bill			16.8%**
**Snowflake		15.7%**
**Crowdstrike		15.7%**

**Sentinel		13.5%**
**Cloudflare		13.5%**

**Mongo			10.7%**

**Monday			 4.1%**

COMPANY REVIEWS

Please note that when I discuss company results, I almost always use the adjusted values that the companies give.

I’m continuing with my new format, which both I and you readers seem happy with :grinning:.

I sometimes mention what I might do about each position, but DON’T just follow me. Make your own decisions. I may change my mind tomorrow and probably not mention it for a month. And what I invest in may not be right for you. And besides, I don’t understand anything about the tech.

Agreements or disagreements with what I think about the companies, are of course welcome on the board if you include some reasons and it’s not just a one-liner.

Bill
Bill is a high confidence position for me.
Growing like mad.
Made great acquisitions which have been jet propelling it.
Has 80% gross margins.
Not profitable but just below break-even and spending more to get more customers.
FCF positive $23 million, FCF margin was 14%.
Down 61% from its high of approx $350, but up 50% from its sell-off low of $89.90
NRR was 125% at Jun 2021 fiscal year.
Strong guidance and very enthusiastic.
Alliances with CPA.com (a subsidiary of the American Institute of CPAs), and with Bank of America, and with 85% of top 100 CPA firms, seems a considerable moat.
Jason posted this month that he had dinner with an ex-VP of Bill who told him, “No one who doesn’t work at Bill understands how deeply integrated Bill becomes in the internal processes of each enterprise customer… No one is going to ever change out of Bill for another option, even if there was a better one.”
Stocknovice let us know that Brex, a business card competitor of Bill, announced that it would stop serving traditional small business customers to focus on its startup segment instead. It will be dropping “tens of thousands” of traditional brick-and-mortar companies which now have two months to migrate to another service. Undoubtedly, Bill will get some of these.
Bill seems like an excellent company, and seems to be moving back up faster, and more steadily, than my other companies.

Cloudflare
It’s a level 2 confidence position for me due to the plusses and minuses that I will describe below.
Solid company growing revenue in the high 40’s to mid 50’s range very consistently for 13 quarters (or something like that).
gross margins of 79%
Not really profitable or desiring to be right now, because it is plowing it all back in to growth, but is right above break-even. Idealistic about saving the cloud.
FCF quite negative last quarter but they say it was largely because of a one time tax payment that had been accrued throughout the year.
Down 77% from its high of approx $222, but up 29% from its sell-off low of $38.96.
Higher capex than others because it has to build and service all its world-wide endpoints, etc
Very innovative and putting out new products like mad, certainly faster than any other company I know. In fact it seems to be constantly innovating and adding new products or upgrades.
Made a big acquisition for email security.
Moving rapidly into security and competing with Zscaler and PaloAlto in Zero Trust.
This is from their announcement a week ago: Cloudflare One provides a comprehensive Zero Trust SASE solution that is built natively into Cloudflare’s global network, spanning more than 270 cities in over 100 countries. This deeply integrated approach ensures a simple deployment in just a few clicks, lightning fast performance wherever users are, and robust security across endpoints, networks, and email.
They announced that they also equipped their partners to deliver their Zero Trust solution.
Also moving rapidly into data storage, processing, and distribution. I can’t resist including a little quote from Software Stack Investing https://softwarestackinvesting.com (which I advise subscribing to):
…the progress in data services has been a welcome surprise. A year ago, I wouldn’t have considered Cloudflare to be a data company. Yet, if we fast forward 5 years, it could become one of the larger providers of data services. Granted, it won’t replace large, centralized database solutions that run heavy analytics and ML workloads, but there is a growing demand with similar potential for facilitating the transmission, in-flight processing, and distribution, of data across the globe… [which] would benefit from Cloudflare’s global network of data centers, distributed compute and localized storage…It puts compute and data storage within 50ms transit to 95% of the world’s population…They are already landing deals for these capabilities with customers like Meta and Atlassian.
Net Retention Rate (NRR) 127% and rising.
In July introduced Cloudforce One, an internal team to track and disrupt online threats, led by a guy who has worked at CrowdStrike and at the National Security Agency, …
Very enthusiastic, and doing what it does very, very, well
So its mixed picture is definitely improving: growing revenue slower than others but very steadily, very innovative, high valuation, higher capex than others, no desire to be profitable any time soon, negative FCF, Net Retention Rate steadily rising, it is rapidly and strongly moving into new fields with new products, especially Zero Trust security, and data services, etc, etc.
It’s now an 13.5% position

Crowdstrike
Crowdstrike is back to being a high confidence position for me. It’s grown to a 15.7% position from 14.6% last month, and is back to being one of my large positions.
I thought that they reported an excellent quarter
Growing subscription revenue at 64% and probably slowly slowing, but dominant in its field and quite profitable.
Total subscription customers were up 57% yoy
Subscription gross margin was 79%
Down only 39% from its high of approx $301, but that’s partly because it didn’t go up like the others in 2021. It is, however, up 41% from its sell-off low of $130.
Op cash flow margin was 44% of revenue
Free cash flow margin was 32% of revenue
Net profit margin was 15%
They are thus very profitable, and increasingly so.
Got Impact Level 4 Authorization from the US Defense Information Systems Agency and received German Federal Office for Information Security Approval, which is important for E.U. sales. In June it announced General Availability of Falcon Identity Threat Protection for U.S. Public Sector Organizations requiring FedRAMP Moderate or IL-4 authorization
A strategic partnership with Mandiant to benefit joint customers, and expanded the partnership with Cloudflare with technology integrations.
They also announced
Crowd Asset Graph,
Humio for Falcon,
Graph Visualization,
new Partners,
and a host of minor products and updates.
Enthusiastic, and a lot of announcements this month.

Datadog
One of my highest confidence positions.
Grew at 84% and 83% the last two quarters
Gross margins 80%
Very profitable: trailing EPS is 66 cents, with 24 cents last quarter.
Adj Operating margin was 23%!
Op Cash Flow Margin was 40%!
FCF Margin was 33% and 36%! last two quarters
Dominant in its field.
Down 49% from its Nov high of approx $200, and up 26.7% from its sell-off low of $81.10
NRR over 130
Moving into security in a big way and succesfully.
Analysts called results stupendus, terrific. CEO very enthused.
In June they announced monitoring and security for Kubernetes
They also announced Observability Pipelines.
They also launched Audit Trail
An 18.0% position, down from 18.8% last month because the rest of my portfolio was growing faster. I have no plans to reduce it.

Monday
I really like Monday’s growth and its growth of $50k customers, but it has a lot of competition, it’s not considered mission critical in the way that some other of our companies are, and companies in this field have a tough time becoming profitable, so I’ve kept my position smaller than the others. Monday had a weak month, dropping 16% on no news that I’m aware of. It is my smallest position and my lowest confidence position, but the market’s expectations are very low, and if they beat them significantly I’d expect a strong response.
Thus another mixed picture.
With its weak month it is now down about 77% from high of approx $450, but that was a one-day spike. Really more like down 73%, which is still a lot. It is up just 18% from its sell-off low of $87.05
Monday has an enormous revenue growth rate of 91%, up from 85% growth a year ago, but actually down from 95% yoy growth sequentially.
Its sequential revenue growth of 14% was excellent for the first quarter, which seems to be seasonally low for all our companies.
Their London/European office, which just opened in November, has now moved to a much larger office to accommodate rapidly increasing business.
They are spending to get every customer they can, and they thus still have negative operating income and net income.
Net Retention Rate is fine at 135% for companies with over 10 seats, and 150% for companies with spend of over $50k. Monday often lands with just one or two teams in a customer and expands from there.
Growing number of customers over $50k very rapidly, by 200% yoy! Tripling, that is
Op cash flow and FCF both turned positive last quarter.
In June they launched a monetization solution for the Monday apps marketplace. The new marketplace monetization solution will give developers and partners the ability to integrate and manage app payments directly within the Work OS, and let all users manage payments and subscriptions from their existing Monday account.
Expectations are low because they seem less mission critical than our other companies in a recession. However, like Datadog, the cost of their service seems trivially low compared to the benefits and cost savings of using it.
They have a lower valuation than our other companies, but they do have lots of competitors, and the other companies in the field have never succeeded in turning sales into profitability.
My position is just 4.1%, mostly due to its stock price drop this month.

Mongo
This is another company that is doing very well, and I should have a larger position than my current 10.7%.
Growing revenue at 55% and accelerating every quarter because of Atlas growing faster than the legacy part of business, and Atlas is now 60% of revenue and growing at 82% yoy.
Gross margins were 75%
Had been “open source, “ which I considered a negative as an investor, but is less open source now that it had to patent/copyright to stop AWS from copying it, and now that Atlas is growing so fast, however I was upset that they decided to make their new product open source (see below)
Now profitable with Adj Net Inc of $15 million, up from a LOSS of $4 million a year ago
Op Cash Flow of $12 million last quarter
FCF of $8 million, flat with a year ago.
Dominant in their field.
In June they released Queryable Encryption to encrypt data during the time it’s being queryed. However, they are doing it open source which meant to me that anyone who wants to, and is able, can copy it! That seemed an insane way to run a business, to me anyway (although I am assured by my tech friends that it’s not as easy to copy what they do as it seems).
Down 47% from its November high of approx $592, but up 50% from its sell-off low of $213.40.
I don’t have their NRR but Atlas NRR is probably very high (150 or so)

Sentinel
Another mixed picture:
ARR was “only” up 110%, “decelerating” if you want to feel bad about up 110%.
Revenue grew at “only” 109%… BUT
Gross margin was up 15 points to 68% from 53% a year ago, and was up 5 points from 63% sequentially
Op margins are very negative at -73% last quarter because they are spending like mad on growth (improved from -127%, but still).
Operating Cash Flow and FCF margins are terribly negative.
NRR was a record 131%, improved from 124% a year ago, and from 129% sequentially.
Cloud security is their new field and has grown to 20% of their business from practically nothing a year ago. Cloud security revenue was up 50% SEQUENTIALLY this quarter.
Endpoint security was their main business and they are adding one thing after another (like Cloud and Identity, etc), but Endpoint is still growing like mad too, as is everything else. This company is growing incredibly fast.
Stock is down 68.5% from its high of approx $79, but up 33% from its sell-off low of $18.64.
New alliances and acquisitions including an integration with Okta just announced this quarter.
Growing customers over $100k by roughly 110% yoy, and total customers by 55% (rate of growth is down from last quarter, but still growing at rates most companies can’t even dream of)
Great tailwind of worries about breaches with the Ukraine war
Made a huge increase in annual guidance, bringing it up to just under 100% again (with three more quarters to raise in), but it’s hard to evaluate as they will be including Attivo from now on. All in all you can say that they will be reporting annual revenue growth probably over 110%, which is enormous, but organic growth about high 90’s or about 100%, as a piece of revenue will be from the acquisition.
It was a 13.1% position and I thought about trimming it, but after reading the conference call I added a little instead. It’s now a 13.5% position.
Not being profitable yet is definitely out in the current market, which makes it hard for the small very rapidly growing companies like Sentinel, but I’m sticking with it.

Snowflake
Down 63% from its high of appox $408, but up 36% from its sell-off low of $110.30.
Another somewhat mixed picture:
Gross margin is 75%.
Dominant in its field but potential competitors arising.
Very rapid revenue growth. It was over 100%, but this quarter the growth rate was cut to 85% by allowing faster computing by customers without raising prices. (They warned us about this last quarter). Also some minor usage cut back by consumer facing companies.
Very high NRR (in the 170%’s), but that will be coming down too.
Share price and valuation are both way down from their heights. Heck, its share price is down to about where Warren Buffet bought it at the IPO, and it has MUCH more revenue, RPO, FCF, etc, now than it did back then .
New partnerships with AWS, Dell, Stripe, etc
Setting up vertical silos for data sharing (healthcare, retail, finance, etc), which will make them much more sticky.
Moving into new international markets
Taking advantage of the need for security monitoring with CyberSecurity Workload, which serves as a platform for the data from companies who want to do their own security analysis, or to hire one of Snow’s partners to do it. Snow gets more data storage, and more data analysis, on their system, without the cost and headache of creating their own security analysis. The customer benefits from cheaper and easier.
New products for new fields. A new Cloud Native Application Protection Platform to allow developers to develop, deploy and monetize applications, all on Snowflake.
Introduced UniStore and Hybrid Tables to allow analyzing transactional SQL data on Snow.
They were ranked first in JP Morgan’s survey of where CIO’s planned to spend additional funds in 2022 (ahead of Microsoft, Google cloud, and Crowdstrike).
Buying back employee RSUs to prevent dilution, which is already under 1% per year.
Investment in, and partnership with, Tecton announced in July.
Very enthusiastic.
Going to become a behemoth of a company, long term. Heck, it already IS becoming a behemoth :grinning:!
Usage based, so it could be hit more in a recesion than a SaaS company who gets the same subscription revenue come what may.
Overall, it’s a very positive picture. It’s a 16.4% position. I have no intention of trimming it at present.

Zscaler
Putting it all together: I was concerned about its very long sales cycle, and because it seemed to be getting more effective competition from Palo Alto and now Cloudflare (with a much, much, shorter sales cycle), and also because, while companies like Datadog, Crowd, Cloudflare and Sentinel seem to be innovating like mad, and they come out with great new products and improvements at a rapid pace, Zscaler infrequently announced significant new products and seemed happy to stay in the successful rut that it was in. Add in that billings growth was substantially below reasonable expectations the past two quarters, and I exited in June. It may do very well but I felt had better places for my money.

SOME THOUGHTS ABOUT THE GROWTH OF OUR BOARD

We started our board in the beginning of 2014, more than eight years ago. Until six months ago we had NEVER, EVER, had a post with more recs than the high 300’s. Yet earlier this year I had a ordinary post, just a post about what I had done about a stock, that had over 660 recs. That is crazy!

Our success has flooded us with new posters and readers (that’s you, most likely), so you can see why we have to limit our posts to meaningful ones to avoid flooding the board and destroying it. I may at times seem arbitrary in deleting posts but that’s why it’s done and why it’s necessary.

Thanks for your cooperation

FINISHING UP
Let me remind you first, that I have NO IDEA what our stocks will do next month. I’m terrible on predictions. But I know that the businesses of our companies will do just fine for the most part.

I feel that my portfolio is made up of a bunch of great companies. But that’s just my opinion, and I can’t say often enough that I’m not a techie and I don’t really understand what most of them actually do at all ! I just know what great results look like. I figure that if their customers clearly like them and keep buying their products in hugely increasing amounts, they must have something going for them and, as I’ve often said, I follow the money, the results. And I listen to smart people about the prospects of these companies.

When I take a regular position in a stock, it’s always with the idea of holding it indefinitely, or as long as circumstances seem appropriate, and never with a price goal or with the idea of trying to make a few points and selling. I do, of course, eventually exit. Sometimes it’s after months, and sometimes after years, but I’m talking about what my intention is when I buy.

I do sometimes take a tiny position in a company to put it on my radar and get me to learn more about it. I’m not trying to trade it and make money on it, I’m just trying to decide if I want to keep it long term. If I do try out a stock in a small position and later decide that it’s not what I want, I sell it without hesitation, and I really don’t care whether I gain a dollar or lose one. I just sell out to put the money somewhere better. If I decide to keep it, I add to my position and build it into a regular position.

You should never try to just follow what I’m doing without making up your own mind about a stock. First of all, you may have a completely different financial picture than I have. Different age, different income, different assets, different debts, different expenses, different financial and family responsibilities, etc.

Besides, in these monthly summaries I’m giving you a static picture of where I am currently, but I may change my mind about a position during the month. In fact, I not infrequently do, and I make changes in the position. I usually don’t announce these changes until the end of the month, and if I’m busy or have some personal emergency I might not announce them even then. And besides, I sometimes make mistakes, even big ones! Don’t just follow me blindly! I’m an old guy and won’t be around forever. The key is to learn how to do this for yourself.

THE KNOWLEDGEBASE
Since I began in 1989, my entire portfolio has grown enormously. If you are new to the board and want to find out how I did it, and how you can try to do it yourself, I’d suggest you read the Knowledgebase, which is a compilation of my “words of wisdom”, and definitely worth reading (a couple of times) if you haven’t yet.

A link to the Knowledgebase is at the top of the Announcements panel that is on the right side of every page on this board.

For some additions to the Knowledgebase, bringing it up to date, I’d advise reading several other posts linked to on the panel, especially:

How I Pick a Company to Invest In,
Why My Investing Criteria Have Changed,
Why It Really is Different.
Illogical Investing Fallacies

I hope this has been helpful.

Saul

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It’s now been 10 weeks, two and a half months(!), since that last portfolio low on June 16!

That was an error on my part. From June 16 to the end of July is one and a half months, not two and a half.

A number of my companies like Bill, Crowdstrike and Sentinel, haven’t closed at a new low in over 11 weeks!!! That’s almost three MONTHS! For Mongo the last low close was over 8 weeks ago. For Cloudflare, Snowflake and Datadog it was over 6 weeks ago.

That’s all correct!

Saul

17 Likes