I use AI every day

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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Last year I barely heard about AI. Now I use it every day.

I asked Amazon’s AI, Rufus, to recommend an office chair without a mesh back under $200 for a 5’3” person. Presto! I bought the recommendation which was on sale for $99. (I don’t know whether their computer sweetened the deal just for me since I’m a big Amazon customer so the chance was high that I would actually buy it.)

I asked Google Gemini to show me diagrams of a septic tank with a damaged compartment divider and contact information for a local repair business. They showed four local businesses and even the ratings (which I assume came from Yelp).

I asked Perplexity about a complex health issue. They are good about showing references and further related questions to explore.

I asked ChatGPT to recommend a dishwasher that doesn’t have a filter in the bottom that needs to be taken out and cleaned. ChatGPT provides links to the retailers.

I am using AI more and more.

About half the capital investment in the U.S. in the past year went toward developing and building out AI centers. These companies obviously think they will become profitable or they wouldn’t make the investments.

When Google went public I didn’t buy the stock because I didn’t understand how they could be profitable since I used their search engine for free. I’m still using their search engines for free but now I can see how AI is beginning to permeate commerce (including customer service) in many ways.

Wendy

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And to think, youre still an early adopter

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As the AI capabilities increase they will replace many knowledge-based workers.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/ai-is-here-and-a-quiet-havoc-has-begun-15322dd7

AI Is Here, and a Quiet Havoc Has Begun

Everyone knows artificial intelligence will destroy a lot of jobs—but not how soon it is going to happen.

By Peggy Noonan, The Wall Street Journal

This summer the knowledge settled in about where we are with artificial intelligence. Almost everyone is rattled by the speed of its development. The story is no longer “AI in coming decades will take a lot of jobs” or “AI will take jobs sooner than we think.” It is “AI is here and a quiet havoc has begun.”

Jobs growth in July was lower than expected, the May and June jobs numbers were revised downward, and news reports on this mentioned various causes—tariffs, general economic uncertainty and, lower down, AI….

“I drive up and down ‘Old Post Road’ in Fairfield County (CT) almost every day. When I do, I pass office buildings and storefronts that are the workplaces of insurance brokers, local and regional bankers, mortgage brokers, lawyers, accountants, consultants, marketers, real estate agents, etc. And what I think about all those people as I pass them by is this: The companies they work for will employ 10%-25% fewer of them in (probably) two years, maybe three.”

What those people do for a living will be done by AI….

All these stories were preceded by an important paper released in April by the AI Futures project. It is called “AI 2027,” and its authors, longtime analysts in the field with deep ties to research, safety and policy, began with a bang: “We predict the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the industrial revolution.” They say it’s coming sooner than expected—in 2025 AIs will be training other AIs, and in early 2026 coding will be automated and AI research sped up. There will be a new debate: Is AI “bigger than social media? Bigger than smartphones? Bigger than fire?”…[end quote]

OK, saying AI will be bigger than fire is clearly an exaggeration.

But AI might be as disruptive as the Industrial Revolution which displaced many home artisans and the introduction of large farm machinery which displaced many farm workers.

Displaced workers always have great hardships. Many will never regain the income they had before.

Finding living-wage work (and health insurance) for the displaced will be a powerful Macroeconomic trend for the next decades. This trend would reduce demand for goods and services so tend to be deflationary.

As with the earlier revolutions that increased productivity, the consumers will benefit.

Wendy

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My son is a government worker. He pays for the advanced ChatGPT and uses the deep research all of the time. He is able to tie the advanced to internal documents and external documents.

He often has to compare aerial photos to Google maps. He told me today he had compared the photos showing damage that was claimed against Google maps and Google maps showed the same damage. So he knew the date of the photos, he did not know the date of the Google maps image. So he asked ChatGPT how he could get the metadata from the Google maps image, this data contains the date the image was captured. The ChatGPT not only told him how to get the data, it is available in the browser. However, it is in the form of a data stream capture. So he asked ChatGPT to find the data. It did, but once he saw the format of the data he was able manually scan the data and verify it.

This is important because the Google maps image shows the same damage as the aerial images that support the claim. If the Google images are before the date of the damage, then the claim is denied as pre-existing damage. If it is after the date of the damage then it supports the claim.

He spends a lot of time doing this and will likely attempt to build an agent to automate this task.

Today he told me that this morning the team lead on a field operation was abruptly replaced. The new team lead put him in the deputy team lead position and the person from DC wants the whole team shaken up. So he is using AI to draw up geographical areas to be covered by inputting maps into the AI them once the team sizes are selected, using AI to help populate the teams by him inputting his understanding of each team members strengths and weaknesses.

(This is not as straight forward as it seems, he has a couple of small team leaders that are weak, and he wanted to move a team member up to team lead move one of the leaders down to team member, but there were a lot of things to consider. Like, experience, coaching of the weak members, and inner office politics)

Once he had what he feels is a decent organization he will have AI write a summary and recommendation to his team leader. He probably will not send the document but rather discuss his positions in an informal meeting with his team leader and the DC person.

He is also using it to define metrics to measure performance. In this way he can see who is performing well and who may need either training are possibly moved into a more suitable roll.

So, there. AI saving you money in government!

Cheers
Qazulight

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Just to play devil’s advocate….

Yes, massive compute power and near-unlimited access to online information, often pushing the limits of copyright law or outright breaking, allowed AI systems to process and reproduce huge volumes of material. But replacing a knowledge worker takes far more than digesting and regurgitating facts. Knowledge work often involves synthesizing incomplete or conflicting information, weighing trade-offs, applying domain-specific judgment, and considering human factors like ethics, relationships, and long-term consequences. It requires creativity to approach problems in novel ways, adaptability to shifting circumstances, and the ability to persuade, negotiate, and collaborate with other humans; all of which operate in a space where rules aren’t fixed and the “right” answer isn’t always obvious.

The above is also an example of AI. Where still the central idea, theme and words from me, but AI helped me to polish the points, and took the edge out of my initial draft. AI will evolve and someday get there, the rapid growth from unable to tell how many ‘r’’s in strawberries to where it is impressive…. but not there yet.

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