How easy is it going to be to retrain a truck driver as a “prompt engineer”?
free link:
Also surprised that there’s no “slop auteur” responsible for creative content.
intercst
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MSN link.
Roles associated with “not offending sensitive people” include:
{. focused on designing the language and interaction of AI
(AI conversation designer,
interaction designer),
human AI collaboration lead,
adoption strategist,
responsible use AI architect,
agent operations manager,
AI ethicists, }
ralph
AI may hurt demand for office workers, but there’s reason for hope, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon believes. The dynamic American workforce will evolve, as it has in the past, Solomon told CNN during a sit-down interview…
A Goldman Sachs survey of bankers found that 37% of clients are using AI for regular production, with adoption expected to hit 50% next year and 74% in the next three years…
A survey of over 100 Goldman Sachs investment bankers finds that just 11% of US companies are “actively reducing headcount due to AI,” a report published last week said. However, that figure rises to 31% for tech, media and telecom companies.
DB2
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It’s certain possible that my attitude is colored by my several decades living in the business world coupled with an interest in business management (history as well as personal experience), but I have watched so many trends and fads come and go that I am a bit jaundiced about it.
I try to say every time, lest someone cherry pick a post, that while there will be a great future for AI somehow, and in lots of somewheres, this looks like a lot of people are out over their skis - particularly those throwing countless billions of dollars at it for - as yet - indiscernible profits.
For history I remember the era when “conglomerates” were in fashion, because “when one business is slow, the others can pick up the slack.” That’s a thin capsule of the philosophy, but you could fill a volume and not make a more cogent argument. And then conglomerates (mostly) fell by the wayside.
I lived through the era of “a professional manager can manage any business” and did so personally as Westinghouse Broadcasting (where I worked) brought in a guy from Frito-Lay to run the place because he was “an expert manager.” I distinctly recall a quote from the corporate PR guy to a publication saying “He’s not going to give any interviews until he learns more about the business.” I thought “uh oh” and you can guess how it worked out. In case you can’t guess, it was about as well as Nardelli taking over the retail chain Home Depot (insert other Welchian examples here, if you like.)
There was, of course, the dot-com era, where everything was going to change, including the end of bricks & mortar, although as I drive around I see ever more strip malls and outdoor shopping extravaganzas, even as enclosed malls and (some) downtowns continue to struggle. Of course Dot-com and her friends produced many changes worthy of note, not that most were visible yet in 1999.
I won’t spend more than a sentence on the real estate/banking fiasco of 2008, which surprisingly rhymed with the real estate/banking fiasco of 1987 when Reagan was in office, though he escaped blame by, uh, escaping, and not having decimated competent administrators who set up the Resolution Trust Corporation (after he was gone). Real Estate! It never goes down!
So pardon me if I think all the hype about AI is just a wee touch overblown. Will it be big? Sure (disclaimer #2 in the same post!) Will it be worth the billions being poured into it? Maybe. Does anybody know what they’re talking about? I’m a-gonna say “no.”
Prove me wrong.
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Aside from the economic boost provided by the capex spending, a major impact already seems to be in the lack of hiring even while the economy grows. That points to increased productivity. It may be due to other factors as well, but AI seems a likely suspect.
DB2
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Yes, no doubt there is a ton of this.
Two very short term data points. The economy may or may not be growing, the lack of hiring may or may not be real. (I contend in another post that this may be part of “the current fad.” Or may not. We just don’t really know.)
I remember when the WalMart CEO was crowing about “increased productivity” (by reducing workforce), only to reverse himself a year later when sales cratered complaining “he couldn’t get inventory from the dock onto the shelves.” Likewise Home Depot had a good year or two, but then the roosters came home and Nardelli’s brilliant plan to replace knowledgable workers with kids opening boxes turned out not to be so great, and he was cashiered.
As I noted upthread, for all their mega-millions in pay, CEOs are easily seduced by trendy thought alignment, and if their buddies are screaming “AI” (or “Capex”, or “cheaper help”, or whatever) many of them are going to go along. They’re even going to make statements about it, because it puts them in the club and makes them seem smart.
Bah.
A couple months stats on job growth mean nothing. We have an economy, uncommonly strong, but also in economic turmoil. Tariffs all over the place. Potential shortages of some crucial components. Supply chains disrupted. In some areas soaring electricity costs. Angry foreign governments and suppliers. There are so many factors punching at the economy and it is taking body blow after body blow.
And yet it seems, so far at least, to be pretty resilient. Then again, so did the economy in 2006 and in 1998, and even 2019*. (That last one is an outlier, admittedly.)
It’s just too soon. We’re all guessing. But I admit to being gobsmacked by how strong the economy has stood up thus far to exogenic shocks that might have destabilized or even sunk a weaker body.
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So much this.
Aiaiaiai
The use of AI is diffusing in unspectacular ways in all sorts of industries such as agriculture and energy. For example, this paper by Onukwulu looks at automation and AI advances in supply chain productivity in the oil & gas industry:
The authors write about automation (drones, self-driving vehicles, etc.) and then about AI:
AI technologies, such as machine learning, natural language processing and predictive analytics, are being used to optimize various aspects of the oil and gas supply chain, from inventory management to demand forecasting and risk mitigation (Akinsulire, et al., 2024, Folorunso, et al., 2024, Mokogwu, et al., 2024)...
One of the primary ways in which AI is being applied in the oil and gas supply chain is through predictive analytics. Predictive analytics uses historical data and machine learning algorithms to forecast future events, such as demand fluctuations, supply disruptions, or equipment failures (Aniebonam, 2024, Folorunso, et al., 2024, Mokogwu, et al., 2024).
For example, AI can analyze past consumption patterns, weather data, and market trends to predict future demand for oil and gas products in specific regions, helping companies to better align their production and logistics strategies. This can result in more accurate planning, reducing the chances of overproduction or underproduction, both of which can be costly. AI is also helping optimize inventory management, which is a crucial component of the oil and gas supply chain.
DB2
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Speaking of agriculture, here’s a paper titled “Using Artificial Intelligence to Improve Poultry Productivity – A Review”.
One area where AI can be helpful is in the early detection of diseases. By analyzing data from various sources, such as sensor readings and health records, AI algorithms can identify potential disease outbreaks or health risks in flocks, allowing farmers to take timely preventive measures...
AI can also optimize the management of healthcare supplies for poultry. By analyzing the nutritional requirements of birds and the availability and prices of different ingredients, AI algorithms can help farmers optimize feed formulations, reducing waste and environmental impacts.
DB2
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This isn’t AI. It’s just garden variety machine learning and statistics that we were using at Oracle a decade ago.
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Of course. AI just continues/accelerates the technological progress.
DB2
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The point is, it’s being billed as AI when it isn’t. And this is probably happening frequently out there, and seen as a justification for how pervasive AI is becoming. When maybe it isn’t. And this, I’m sorry, is not an example of AI being used.
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Humans have intelligence which they use mostly in “unspectacular ways.”
The Captain