The S&P 500 rose 14.5% in the first six months of the year, nearly identical to the index’s gains for the same period last year. In 2023, it rose 15.9% in the first half. Historically, that is a good sign for the rest of the year.
Almost every year that the S&P 500 climbs more than 14% in the first half, the index closes the year with gains, according to Dow Jones Market Data. But most of those gains come in the first half. On average, the S&P climbs 24.5% for the full year, but only 2.8% in the second half.
It’s different in election years like the current one. The S&P historically has climbed 0.9% in the first six months and 7.2% in the second half.