I took the liberty to create a new thread for your question.
I think the current stock rally is speculative, election-year, declining empire nonsense for all the reasons people like Jim Rickards lay out in their interviews, and I’m expecting --and hoping for-- the mother of all market crashes in 2024 due to US’s financial and foreign policy stupidities. Then, I get serious again about trying to put money to work. Meanwhile, I’m just trading small postions for the fun of it.
But also, my situation isn’t that of most Americans. I’m retired, in good health, and my current incomes (SSI, pension, and investments) are 5x current expenses. I can sustain a lot of market damage without it affecting my beer-and-bait lifestyle. Therefore, I can ignore markets --or engage them-- as I choose. I don’t need 2024 to be a good year, or a bad year, and what I might want doesn’t matter.
Now for some reasons the current rally won’t continue:
#1, US debt is $33.8 trillion and accelerating. Yeah, interest rates are backing off a bit. But soon enough, the US won’t be able to service that debt. Hence, Banking Crisis 2.0 comes and with it tanking stock and real estate markets.
#2 The US is losing its now nearly 10-year war with Russia, is getting its b^tt kicked in the Middle East, and has lost Africa and South America to China. Meanwhile, BRICS Plus is gaining effective control of the world’s commodity markets and is increasingly bypassing the $US dollar in trade settlements.