If I was Putin - Kazakhstan

I was wondering why Putin would be so willing to take the assorted blows and risks to take Ukraine and then I looked at a map. The really valuable mineral resources (uranium, oil, etc.) in the area are in Kazakhstan. If he attacked that country first, “The West” could threaten his supply lines through the Caucasus from Ukraine. OTOH, if Ukraine was neutralized, considering that Kazakhstan would be isolated, is located in central Asia and is not an ally of the US, EU or NATO, Russia would have an easier job militarily.

Just thinking out loud.

Jeff

8 Likes

The Kazak regime has historically been friendly to Putin. When the country had some civil unrest a couple months ago, they invited Russian troops in to “restore order”.

Kazakhstan: Why are there riots and why are Russian troops there?

https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-59894266

There is no need for Putin to invade a country he already has defacto control of. It was Ukraine with it’s pesky democracy and reaching out to the west that was a “problem”.

Steve

9 Likes

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I was wondering why Putin would be so willing to take the assorted blows and risks to take Ukraine and then I looked at a map. The really valuable mineral resources (uranium, oil, etc.) in the area are in Kazakhstan.

What minerals are found in Kazakhstan?
The country ranks among the world's leading countries in its reserves of chromite, wolfram, lead, zinc, manganese, silver and uranium. It also has significant reserves of bauxite, copper, gold, iron ore, coal, natural gas and petroleum.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/9/kyrgyzstan-moves-to-…

Kyrgyzstan moves to nationalise gold mine run by Canadian company

Tensions between Kyrgyzstan and Canada’s Centerra Gold simmer as the president, a longtime critic of foreign ownership, effectively brings the Kumtor mine back into state’s hands.

Clearly there are issues with spending a whole lot of money to develop a project then having it taken back or permits refused by the government? Back when I did invest in miners … during the dawn of my investing career … I learned the hard way that even for mines in the US there were risks involved. A permit refused for a ‘Rare Earth’ mine. Something about some judge’s favorite fishing hole.

Anymouse

2 Likes

Kazakhstan. If he attacked that country first, “The West” could threaten his supply lines through the Caucasus from Ukraine.

Hmm. I don’t see the Caucasus Mountains at all near the long border between Russia and Kazakhstan (nor the Ukraine).

DB2

Hmm. I don’t see the Caucasus Mountains at all near the long border between Russia and Kazakhstan (nor the Ukraine).

They were moved south to Georgia!

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Caucasus+Mountains/@45.367…

The Captain

1 Like

Look at the size of this Kazakhstan crowd protesting against Putin’s invasion of Ukraine from just two days ago:

https://twitter.com/peregreine/status/1503547907450019840

  1. #StopRussianDisinformation #PutinWarCriminal #StandWithUkraine

Mad Vlad Putin uniting freedom lovers and anti-war protesters the world over.

Inside Kazakhstan, directly on Russia’s southern border!

From Belarus, TV reporter,
@franakviacorka

2 Likes

The post is from two days ago, the Kazakhstan protest seen in this photo was from two weeks ago.