**Russia-Allied Forces to Intervene as Unrest Sweeps Kazakhstan**
**The Kazakh president requested the peacekeeping troops as an uprising, sparked by a gas price increase in the resource-rich Central Asian nation, headed toward a fifth day.** **By Valerie Hopkins and Ivan Nechepurenko, The New York Times, Jan. 5, 2022**
**A Russian-led military alliance said late Wednesday that it would send peacekeeping forces to Kazakhstan at the invitation of the country’s president to help put down a growing protest movement there....the troops would be stationed there only “for a limited time period,” until order could be restored....**
**The revolt began on Sunday in western Kazakhstan as a protest against a surge in fuel prices. ...By the time the government announced on Tuesday that it would rescind the price increase, the protests had spread across the country, with broader demands for increased political representation and improved social benefits....**
**The instability is a potential source of concern among foreign oil companies, particularly in the United States. ExxonMobil and Chevron have invested tens of billions of dollars in western Kazakhstan, the region where the unrest began this month. A Chevron-led consortium is in the midst of a project to expand output at the on-land Tengiz oil field at an estimated cost of $37 billion, one of the single largest energy investments in the world today....** [end quote]
Russian “temporary” interventions have a tendency to last a very long time. Russia is currently trying to resorb Ukraine and Belarus. Kazakhstan has great resources and is the richest central Asian ex-SSR. They also have a strategic border with China.
As an Exxon shareholder, I’m concerned that unrest in Kazakhstan could threaten an important investment.
I don’t blame the protesters for wanting more democracy but the demonstrations have been destructive. This is destabilizing.
I was going to post about this myself, after seeing the report tonight on the BBC.
This was the scenario I expected for Ukraine: FSB whips up “civil unrest”, and the Russian army streams in to “restore order”.
The more conspiracy minded might suggest that western pushback wrt Ukraine showed more resolve than Putin expected. So, to save face, Putin finds another country to invade, and redeploys the troops currently on the Ukrainian border.
The unrest in Kazakhstan is not surprising as they have an extremely corrupt government aided and abetted by Western oil interests. The money being funneled in for “oil” development is also lining the pockets of Kazakh oligarchs while a majority of the people are poor. The UN has rated this country a despotic regime.
A really great place to do business and while they are at it Exxon should throw in a couple of Gulags construction projects
No wonder the people of the world like the idea of America but hate the Americans.
The revolt began on Sunday in western Kazakhstan as a protest against a surge in fuel prices. …By the time the government announced on Tuesday that it would rescind the price increase, the protests had spread across the country…
Keeping things such as gasoline prices artificially low is very popular in developing countries but also makes for a difficult trap to get out of.
www.wider.unu.edu/publication/exploration-association-betwee…
“Countries that maintain fixed price regimes—notably net energy exporters—tend to have large fuel subsidies. When such subsidies become unsustainable, domestic price adjustments are large, often leading to riots.”
As an Exxon shareholder, I’m concerned that unrest in Kazakhstan could threaten an important investment. — So your Exxon investment is making you want to see the protests ended…
Whichever politicos rule the Kazakhs has little impact on the poster (and 99% of the world). He does, however, have a direct connection to his investments.
However, let’s look at the impact on XOM. We find that: www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/0…
“In an emailed comment, the Tengizchevroil consortium, comprising Chevron (50%), ExxonMobil (25%), KazMunaiGas (20%) and Lukoil (5%), confirmed that contract workers at Tengiz were still ‘gathered’ in ‘support of protests taking place across Kazakhstan’ and said efforts were underway to resolve the situation…The field has an official capacity of 600,000 b/d, making it the top contributor to CPC crude blend, loaded at Novorossiisk on Russia’s Black Sea coast.”
So, 25% of 600K is 150K barrels per day if the field is shut down entirely. According to their annual report Exxon produces about four million bpd. So even if the Kaz field never reopened or were nationalized, the hit to XOM production would be
The number of those detained during the riots in Kazakhstan exceeded 4 thousand. The largest number of arrests took place in Alma-Ata. The Ministry of Internal Affairs reported that in the course of special operations, 26 “criminals” were eliminated, another 18 “armed terrorists” were wounded.
Aside from the riots over subsidized gasoline, there appears to be an internal power struggle in Kazakhstan between the present ruler and supporters of the previous guy.
Is A Battle For Power Raging Within Kazakhstan’s Government? www.rferl.org/a/kazakhstan-government-power-struggle-toqaev/…
What began as peaceful protests that quickly enveloped Kazakhstan in major upheaval just after the new year seems to have spawned something quite different – a battle for control of the upper echelons of power in the country…a struggle for power between President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev’s administration and loyalists of the country’s first president, Nursultan Nazarbaev.
Kazakhstan’s KMG reports slight output drop following civil unrest www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/0…
Kazakhstan’s Kazmunaigaz said on Jan. 11 that it has seen a slight decrease in oil production, in an update on the impact of recent civil unrest in Kazakhstan on the company’s operations…KMG said that overall most of its oil and gas production, shipments, oil refining and gas processing continue as normal…
Separately Russia’s Lukoil said Jan. 11 that its production assets in Kazakhstan are operating normally.
150K barrels per day at $70 per barrel =150,000 bpd x $70 = $10,500,000 per day Yes it is significant, and that is why Wendy is worried about her investment.