If you are hedging for inflation...

especially due to Ukraine war… it is not the oil, but the agriculture commodities. Between Russia and Ukraine 13% of world calories are taken off from the market. Imagine the impact.

The war could be over in months. I don’t think Buffett would be concerned by short-term fluctuations. Factors likely causing long-term inflation are: forever enlarging deficit (politicians are now using trillion as a unit, no mention of deficit), inflation/rising interest rate/higher deficit could become a self-enforcing loop.

What percentage of Ukrainian and Russian agricultural production is stopped, assuming this war continues all year? Is it 50-75% in Ukraine? Is it 5-10% in Russia, largely due to the disruption caused by sanctions? Has anyone seen an estimate of this?

What percentage of Ukrainian and Russian agricultural production is stopped, assuming this war
continues all year? Is it 50-75% in Ukraine? Is it 5-10% in Russia, largely due to the disruption
caused by sanctions? Has anyone seen an estimate of this?

If you’re into pondering such things, don’t forget about the crash in agricultural productivity
elsewhere for lack of the fertilizers sourced from affected places, including Belarus.
Or the consequences of the upcoming rounds of food riots and food export bans, perhaps starting with Egypt.
Lots of fun things to muse on.

Jim

8 Likes

For wheat, this article (linked on earlier thread) mentions 30% global wheat exports for Russia/Belarus.

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/17/1087362559/the-house-approves…