Impact of government shutdown

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/federal-government-shutdown-2025-033773ad?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos2

What to Expect From the Federal Government Shutdown

Workers to be furloughed, museums open for now, while Social Security and other payments continue

By Anvee Bhutani, The Wall Street Journal…

Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid will continue sending out payments, though benefit verification and card issuance could pause…..

Transportation Security Administration employees and air-traffic controllers would work without pay, but travelers could see longer security lines or delays, especially if employees skip unpaid work….

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, also known as food stamps, has contingency plans to temporarily continue operations in case of a lapse in funding, though it is unclear how long this would be sustainable. WIC, the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children, meanwhile, could pause its programs if it doesn’t receive funding soon….

Active-duty military personnel are considered essential employees and thus are required to work during a government shutdown. Veterans Health Administration and Veterans Benefits Administration services are unlikely to be seriously affected, though some workers will be furloughed…. [end quote]

These are important government programs. But METARs want to know: how will the government shutdown impact the data needed for the asset markets?

As government shuts down, Trump jettisons his choice to lead BLS

Posted on October 1, 2025 by Tipswatch

By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

It’s Day One of the U.S. government shutdown, and the crucially important, non-partisan Bureau of Labor Statistics now has one working employee: acting commissioner William Wiatrowski. The other 2,054 employees have been (or will soon be) furloughed.

The Labor Department last week published a contingency plan for the shutdown, which included these details:

  • The Labor Department’s working employees will be reduced from 12,916 to 3,141.

  • The BLS is listed in the group that will “completely cease operations.”

  • No economic data will be released.

  • All active data collection activities for BLS surveys will cease.

  • The quality of data collected in the future could be impaired.

  • The BLS website will not be updated.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis, which is part of the Commerce Department, has posted a notice on its site: “Due to a lapse in appropriations, this website is not being updated.”…

Things are going to get tense if the BLS cannot release a CPI report for September, which is the last month of data needed to determine next year’s Social Security cost-of-living adjustment and the new variable rate for the U.S. Series I Savings Bond. In addition, that September data is important in calculating next year’s Medicare rates, IRMAA levels and even 2026 income tax brackets.

The Federal Reserve is going to be flying blind until the shutdown is resolved, with both jobs and inflation data being locked down…. [end quote]

The markets are ignoring the impact of the shutdown so far but it’s hard to predict what will happen if it goes on much longer.

Wendy

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If you’re in the Top 10% of the economic pyramid, the Gov’t shutdown is likely an economic positive for you.

intercst

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SPY and QQQ are at all-time highs today.

DB2

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The high likelihood of no data in time to make the next fed decision has me scratching my head when I see that traders are now pricing in a 99% chance of a rate cut this month and nearly a 90% chance of another one in December.

If the govt is still closed by the next fed decision, I might take my gains and run as I think there is a better than 1% chance that the fed does nothing - and if they do, the market will have a conniption.

If they do make a cut, the market is unlikely to react at all.

Lots of risk with little to no upside.

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I am giving SCOTUS credit for that one.

IYKYK. :wink:

Hawkwin

Who states you should ignore the fact that the market started to recover from losses earlier in the day.

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From October 1st…

Hawk, did you end up reducing your market exposure?

DB2

Hey, thanks for asking. Nope, I stayed greedy. As a posted a few days ago, my finger is hovering near “go to cash” but now that we have a deal, I am going to breathe easier for a few weeks.

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But we don’t, yet. House still hash to vote. Meaning House has to come back into session. Which is going to trigger swearing in of a duly elected official from Arizona, which is going to trigger a release of the Epstein files. Color me skeptical. This administration is doing everything possible to keep that from happening. You gotta ask yourself why.

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All appearance is that such a vote will happen in 36 hours.

Johnson said he will give 36-hour notice to House members for a vote as soon as the Senate has final passage of the CR in the Senate.

I think there are very likely about a dozen of Dems that will vote for it to pass (and a few Reps that will vote against it).

Perhaps they wanted to protect the former Secretary of the Treasury and president of Harvard. From the Harvard Crimson…

In a sequence of texts and emails between November 2018 and July 5, 2019, Summers turned to Epstein for advice on his pursuit of the woman. Epstein was quick to chime in with assurance and suggestions, describing himself in one November 2018 message as Summers’ “wing man.”…

The final tranche of messages, beginning in mid-June, shows the relationship still unresolved and Summers again turning to Epstein for guidance on how to pursue it.

DB2

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Yes. They are trying to protect p@dophiles. Despicable!

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Perhaps. They were probably trying to protect all the “wonderful secrets”.

This shouldn’t be a partisan issue. Release the files. Even if there isn’t accountability in a court of law, there can be accountability in the court of public opinion. We’re already seeing that with Summers.

Sadly, we’re also seeing the only convicted co-conspirator get special treatment after a sketchy interview with TFG’s personal attorney.

This issue will not go away. It will impact the midterm elections, which will in turn impact the direction of our government and economy through 2028.

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