What to Expect From the Federal Government Shutdown
Workers to be furloughed, museums open for now, while Social Security and other payments continue
By Anvee Bhutani, The Wall Street Journal…
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Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid will continue sending out payments, though benefit verification and card issuance could pause…..
Transportation Security Administration employees and air-traffic controllers would work without pay, but travelers could see longer security lines or delays, especially if employees skip unpaid work….
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, also known as food stamps, has contingency plans to temporarily continue operations in case of a lapse in funding, though it is unclear how long this would be sustainable. WIC, the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children, meanwhile, could pause its programs if it doesn’t receive funding soon….
Active-duty military personnel are considered essential employees and thus are required to work during a government shutdown. Veterans Health Administration and Veterans Benefits Administration services are unlikely to be seriously affected, though some workers will be furloughed…. [end quote]
These are important government programs. But METARs want to know: how will the government shutdown impact the data needed for the asset markets?
As government shuts down, Trump jettisons his choice to lead BLS
Posted on October 1, 2025 by Tipswatch
By David Enna, Tipswatch.com
It’s Day One of the U.S. government shutdown, and the crucially important, non-partisan Bureau of Labor Statistics now has one working employee: acting commissioner William Wiatrowski. The other 2,054 employees have been (or will soon be) furloughed.
The Labor Department last week published a contingency plan for the shutdown, which included these details:
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The Labor Department’s working employees will be reduced from 12,916 to 3,141.
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The BLS is listed in the group that will “completely cease operations.”
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No economic data will be released.
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All active data collection activities for BLS surveys will cease.
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The quality of data collected in the future could be impaired.
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The BLS website will not be updated.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis, which is part of the Commerce Department, has posted a notice on its site: “Due to a lapse in appropriations, this website is not being updated.”…
Things are going to get tense if the BLS cannot release a CPI report for September, which is the last month of data needed to determine next year’s Social Security cost-of-living adjustment and the new variable rate for the U.S. Series I Savings Bond. In addition, that September data is important in calculating next year’s Medicare rates, IRMAA levels and even 2026 income tax brackets.
The Federal Reserve is going to be flying blind until the shutdown is resolved, with both jobs and inflation data being locked down…. [end quote]
The markets are ignoring the impact of the shutdown so far but it’s hard to predict what will happen if it goes on much longer.
Wendy
