I made a fund investment in MINDX (MATTHEWS INDIA INVESTOR) ETF on 1/04/2010, which is almost 3x and 8.12% CAGR (assuming 14 years, technically it is not yet 14 ).
This is during a period where emerging markets have significantly trailed US markets. US markets propelled by Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, MSFT, NVDA, NetFlix, Tesla, etc⌠It is impressive that without any real big winners that ETF has managed a 8% CAGR. I think with many manufacturing companies trying to diversify from China, India is becoming a choice. Apple, Google are planning to start manufacturing their phones in India. It could be Indiaâs decade!
I am planning to allocate at least 1% to India ETFâs.
If you are just plotting the price graph you will not see 3x, because I have primarily re-invested the dividends, thatâs how the value increased to 3x. Note, the taxes are actually deducted at the country level and of course you will pay cap-gains when you sell.
Superior demographics; the median age is 28 yrs; < 7% are 65 yr old
35% of students choose STEM vs 20% of US; By their huge population they produce millions more in a year !!!
English speaking population is bigger than US population size. Most underestimate this figure because for many Indians their first language is not English, yet they are proficient and study in English
Strong IT skills
India is where China was 20 years ago, great growth, democracy, great demographics;
INDA is a the biggest ETF, in addition to that I am going to have some tiny position to track $INCO, this is a small fund ($145 M) that invests in consumer stocks. Given their demographics, raising wages, living standards, consumer stocks are expected to do well. It is highly concentrated only 14 stocks!!!
Kingran, I was reading some of your past postsâŚand wish had followed them. Very Prescient!!
With all the standard caveats, what is your expectations for the market in 2024? I think at some point this year ( was it in August/Sept) you said you were never this fully investedâŚand that would have been a brilliant move, DESPITE the fact that we moved down a LOT in Sept and OctoberâŚCongrats on that!
I remember seeing some of your end of the year posts in the prior years. Are you planning on something similar this year.
I am almost thinking buy an Index, and shut my computer, forget it for at least 1 year and come back. Easier said than done, when my prior losses keep haunting me every time I think of the stock market! Yet, delve on my past, I should not!! May â2024â be the beginning of great health, wealth and prosperity!
Nothing like confirmation bias⌠DoubleLine Jeffrey Gundlach mentioned in a round table, India is like China 30 years ago, and he is bullish on India for multi decades and would buy indian ETFâs.
India overtakes Honk Kong to the 4th place. It is a combination of Indian stocks rallying and China stocks declining. Setting aside that for a moment, If you are looking for diversification outside of US, you should consider India!!
Here is a chart of INDA vs FXI for the last 10 years. India has experienced significant currency devaluation in the last 10 years (i.e., 10 years ago $1=61 and today $1=83, that is Indian currency lost 35% vs RMB 16%), yet in $$ terms they doubled, and China lost close to 30%
Until COVID the performance was relatively close, post COVID Chinese stock took real tumble. Mainly Chinese 0 covid policy, and Chinaâ failure to get its economy going, tech crackdown etc are some of the reasons.
Long-term I expect India to continue to outperform China.
India has a history of violence and assassinations. Its great to hear that their democracy is maturing and working for them. We hope for more of the same.
Extremism in the US is a concern. I think we all hope it runs its course and begins to moderate;
Generally West overrates itself and underrates others. 640 million people have voted peacefully not withstanding blistering summer. I saw a commentary about how Indians are stupid to have election in summer and how people avoided the voting during the day due to heat but that guy failed to appreciate that voters came to the poling station in the evening and waited till 2:00 AM in line to vote, and anyone stood in line before poll closing was able to vote. Can you image that in US?
Today morning there was an interview in Bloomberg, where a banker said the ruling partyâs poor performance may be due to their fiscal discipline. Yeap! They are so focused on deficit management it hurt them in the polls. Here in US, both Biden and Trump, during good times are running $1 T deficit to pander to their base.
GOP is struggling with the Speakership because they cannot keep all the members of their party aligned, I cannot even imagine how 41 party coalition can run the government smoothly.
Interestingly I saw republicans arguing they donât like Trump or his policies but now that he is a âconvicted felonâ they have no choice but to vote for him, and Trump is able to raise $35 M citing his conviction.
Half the country is now hailing the Jan 6th attackers are âpeaceful tourists visiting capitol hillâ. Basic freedom like women getting healthcare is a challenge. Florida had banned 75% of books in their school libraries.
I think US has regressed seriously and before we lecture others we have a lot to fix in this country. I know some folks will consider this as Anti-American, but never felt so frustrated in my life.
New government took power and there is not violence⌠Just saying.
Separately, across the EU âfar right wingâ notched impressive wins and in US a âfar right wingâ candidate who could be indicted felon any day is leading.
Yet, west demonizes the rest of the world. Nothing against @buynholdisdead , but his reservation against China, I am against the communist regime because it is inhuman, because they will act irrationally is an example of how west thinks. If anything it is US and West who act irrationally and weaponize every advantage.
But Kingran that isnât why I am against investing in China. I am against investing in China because I have been taken to many times by corrupt companies and because I do not know what the Chinese government will do against any company that toes the line. IE Luckin coffee, Yongye, and Baba. Also I do not like the way their companies are set up via the VIE, which actually give you no standing if the Chinese Government decides to terminate them. I have no problem if you would like to invest in them but please do not misrepresent the reason I have decided not to invest in China.
Our chart book discusses the outlook for India. There are many reasons to be bullish. GDP growth is strong, inflation is low, and sentiment surveys show that consumers and firms are upbeat. Household, corporate, and bank balance sheets are healthy. The financial sector has seen significant transformation with digitalization and bankruptcy law enactment. Bank lending has been solid, and the Indian stock, bond, and private markets continue to grow at a rapid pace.
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