India: My long term holding

I made a fund investment in MINDX (MATTHEWS INDIA INVESTOR) ETF on 1/04/2010, which is almost 3x and 8.12% CAGR (assuming 14 years, technically it is not yet 14 :grin: ).

This is during a period where emerging markets have significantly trailed US markets. US markets propelled by Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, MSFT, NVDA, NetFlix, Tesla, etc… It is impressive that without any real big winners that ETF has managed a 8% CAGR. I think with many manufacturing companies trying to diversify from China, India is becoming a choice. Apple, Google are planning to start manufacturing their phones in India. It could be India’s decade!

I am planning to allocate at least 1% to India ETF’s.


If you are just plotting the price graph you will not see 3x, because I have primarily re-invested the dividends, that’s how the value increased to 3x. Note, the taxes are actually deducted at the country level and of course you will pay cap-gains when you sell.

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Why India? vs China?

  • Democracy vs Autocracy
  • Superior demographics; the median age is 28 yrs; < 7% are 65 yr old
  • 35% of students choose STEM vs 20% of US; By their huge population they produce millions more in a year !!!
  • English speaking population is bigger than US population size. Most underestimate this figure because for many Indians their first language is not English, yet they are proficient and study in English
  • Strong IT skills
  • India is where China was 20 years ago, great growth, democracy, great demographics;

INDA is a the biggest ETF, in addition to that I am going to have some tiny position to track $INCO, this is a small fund ($145 M) that invests in consumer stocks. Given their demographics, raising wages, living standards, consumer stocks are expected to do well. It is highly concentrated only 14 stocks!!!


Kingran, I was reading some of your past posts…and wish had followed them. Very Prescient!!

With all the standard caveats, what is your expectations for the market in 2024? I think at some point this year ( was it in August/Sept) you said you were never this fully invested…and that would have been a brilliant move, DESPITE the fact that we moved down a LOT in Sept and October…Congrats on that!

I remember seeing some of your end of the year posts in the prior years. Are you planning on something similar this year.

I am almost thinking buy an Index, and shut my computer, forget it for at least 1 year and come back. Easier said than done, when my prior losses keep haunting me every time I think of the stock market! Yet, delve on my past, I should not!! May “2024” be the beginning of great health, wealth and prosperity!

Happy Holidays and Wish you a Wonderful New Year!


Nothing like confirmation bias… DoubleLine Jeffrey Gundlach mentioned in a round table, India is like China 30 years ago, and he is bullish on India for multi decades and would buy indian ETF’s.

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India overtakes Honk Kong to the 4th place. It is a combination of Indian stocks rallying and China stocks declining. Setting aside that for a moment, If you are looking for diversification outside of US, you should consider India!!

Here is a chart of INDA vs FXI for the last 10 years. India has experienced significant currency devaluation in the last 10 years (i.e., 10 years ago $1=61 and today $1=83, that is Indian currency lost 35% vs RMB 16%), yet in $$ terms they doubled, and China lost close to 30%

Until COVID the performance was relatively close, post COVID Chinese stock took real tumble. Mainly Chinese 0 covid policy, and China’ failure to get its economy going, tech crackdown etc are some of the reasons.

Long-term I expect India to continue to outperform China.

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