January CPI Report Shows Annual Inflation Cooled
Inflation moderated from historic highs but the pace of easing is starting to level off
By Gwynn Guilford, The Wall Street Journal, Updated Feb. 14, 2023
U.S. inflation moderated only slightly in January from historic highs as price increases firmed up at the start of the year.
The consumer-price index, a closely watched measure of inflation, climbed 6.4% in January from a year earlier, down from 6.5% in December, the Labor Department said Tuesday. That marked the seventh straight month of cooling in annual inflation since peaking at 9.1% in June, the highest reading since 1981. January’s inflation rate was still much higher than the 2.1% average in the three years before the pandemic.
But from a month earlier, inflation increased. The CPI increased 0.5% in January from December, compared with a 0.1% increase the prior month. The cost of shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly gain, the department said. Prices for food, gasoline, and natural gas also rose in January…[end quote]
Each of us has our own household CPI. One of our highest expenses is insurance. Our homeowner policy, which is due on March 1, increased from $1127 in 2022 to $1269 in 2023, an increase of 12.6%. Part of this increase is due to a ruling that customer credit scores will not be used to set insurance pricing, benefiting lower credit score customers at the expense of higher credit score customers.
Here is the report from the Labor Department.
CPI for all items rises 0.5% in January as shelter increases
02/14/2023
In January, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 6.4 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.4 percent in January (SA); up 5.6 percent over the year (NSA). [end quote]
This chart shows how the CPI-U has accelerated over the past month compared with the previous few months.
The CPI-U is the basis for interest rates on TIPS and I-Bonds. While the Federal Reserve watches the CPI it places more emphasis on the PCE index, which is published later in the month. But today’s news verifies what Fed Chair Powell said in his last speech: inflation will be “bumpy” and will not recede evenly.
The Fed’s fed fund rate increases will continue. Inflation is not defeated.
Wendy