NYT… Inflation, which had climbed by 8.5 percent in the year through March, is beginning to moderate on an annual basis partly because gas prices cooled last month and partly because of a statistical quirk. Increases are now being measured against high price readings from last spring, when inflation started to take off, instead of depressed 2020 levels. The higher base makes annual increases look less severe.
Leap1,
I can’t deny what the New York Times suggests - namely that a higher base, by comparison, can make annual price increases look less severe. I am a sophisticated consumer capable of seeing the coming moderation of inflation because I know that “the cure for high prices is high prices.”
- Any College Economics Course 101
However, the official figures released by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning appear anything but reassuring to any consumer making a trip to the grocery store or planning a vacation (official government release not subject to copyright):
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
The food at home index rose 10.8 percent over the last 12 months, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending November 1980.
The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased 14.3 percent over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending May 1979.
The other major grocery store food group indexes also rose over the past year, with increases ranging from 7.8 percent (fruits and vegetables) to 11.0 percent (other food at home).
The index for food away from home rose 7.2 percent over the last year.
The index for full service meals rose 8.7 percent over the last 12 months, the largest 12-month increase since the inception of the index in 1997.
The index for limited service meals rose 7.0 percent over the last year…
The index for airline fares continued to rise sharply, increasing 18.6 percent in April, the largest 1-month increase since the inception of the series in 1963.
[Emphasis added because the figures seem scary to even a sophisticated consumer like me]
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
Even worse, according to US Energy Information Administration figures as of May 9, gasoline and diesel fuel prices are all up from a week ago, with diesel fuel averaging around $6 dollars per gallon.
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/
I don’t know where in the world you live or shop, but in the continental US, everything I buy, sell, eat, consume, or throw out is transported at some point in the supply, delivery, or disposal chain by farm equipment, vehicles, ships, or trains which burn diesel fuel.
All the “green energy initiatives” our global population can collectively approve, impose, or attempt to implement cannot eliminate the world’s reliance upon diesel fuel obtained from drilling and refining petroleum products.
Any government that ignores the emotional impact of high food, consumer goods, and gasoline prices - any government that refuses to acknowledge the negative impact of high diesel and jet fuel prices - is a government that is inherently unstable and subject to removal by the ballot box or by whatever means is at the disposal of the population.
The Russia-Ukraine wheat supply crisis alone is enough to create government instability in countries dependent upon Russian or Ukrainian wheat.
Russia’s policy of military aggression, when coupled with the US government’s policy of intentionally reducing the volume of US-produced and refined petroleum products, is guaranteed to create government instability in countries dependent upon fossil fuels for electricity, heating, or transport.
I sincerely hope that the Russia-Ukraine war ends soon and that policymakers reverse course soon on US-produced and refined petroleum products. If not, then the following well-known quote may become self-fulfilling in the US and in other countries whose masses are forced to purchase products dependent upon imported wheat or fuel.
“For they have sown the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind.”
Hosea 8:7 [public domain]
