That is all everybody else’s kids are doing. And they are getting it.
The labor shortage should not be solved is my position. Instead, as factories come online we will use less labor per unit sold. Economies of scale.
We were earning goods from China in a sort of shell game of the USD that was backward. It was costly. The cheaper products not made in the US had in fact a higher cost just not at the actual point of sale. We printed our way to those purchases.
The mix of more expensive labor will drive factory automation. The reasonable federal tax rate will drive more of a factory buyout. As Mexican pay rises the culture in Mexico will change. Those joining gangs will get jobs instead. Those advancing through better channels will enter the US towards citizenship. It is comparable to immigration to Germany after some years of us building factories. We are retooling. This is good for everyone.
Who won’t service us at MCD is not really important.
I know you cannot time the market and many of the smart people who used to post here have reminded me of that. But I still got rid of most of my bond funds, and went overweight cash in the last half of 2021. And I talked about it here several times. Stock valuations were crazy high. The Fed was clearly going to start a rate tightening cycle. I did not think they would back off due to political pressure like they did in December 2018.
And so far, almost two years out from that decision, I don’ regret it. My short term cds have outperformed my fdic insured accounts and my fdic insured accounts are outperforming my equities. I am averaging back in to the extent that I started taking SS and buying a low cost etf thinking that I might dollar cost average that money into the market throughout the next slowdown.
Nice call. Just out of curiosity, the conventional wisdom for early retirees is 60-70% equities. Are you currently well below that?
Most of my retirement is pretty conservatively locked away in stuff like TIAA life cycle funds. I also have a smaller discretionary pool for my own investing and I too went heavily into cash, though nearer the beginning of the pandemic. I kept Apple (ok) and Amazon (not so ok) and am slowly adding to Tesla on the bigger dips. Nothing particularly sophisticated and mostly just for fun. As you can probably tell, I am partial to companies that create a product “ecosystem” as a competitive moat and/or have extraordinary brand loyalty. For those reasons I still have hope for Disney.
IMO, the sharp and sudden rises and falls in stock prices during which most money is made/lost in the shorter term are black swan events. They are generally not predictable.
Roughly 2/3 equities, 1/3 cash. Mostly replaced bond funds with fdic insured cash plus short term cd rollovers. Mostly just muddling my way through because Dad was the first in my family to leave behind any sort of estate thanks to WW 2; gi bill, law degree, willingness and ability to work to his mid eighties.
Following the Kitces retirement glide path. Lots of cash early in retirement, averaging back into equities with money we don’t need for longer term returns for charities, children, whatever.
I had no experience with managing money early in life because we did not have money to manage. That’s why I came to TMF 25 years ago.
I am thinking of the 15% of USians who don’t graduate high school, and the 38% of high school graduates who never go to college. Both of those numbers likely to increase as education is increasingly rationed by ability to pay. I remember some talking head, in the 80s, praising “sweat shops” because, according to him “they get people started in the job market”. Letting 14 year olds work more hours, and more types of jobs, increases the incentive to quit school and work full time, especially in a family that is struggling financially. I fully expect the next shoe to drop will be the “freeedom” lobby, pushing to have school dropout ages lowered, to match the “freeedom” child labor laws.
I’m not 100% sure what I did to my future son-in-law influenced his education, but after working for me one summer he returned to school and took his studies seriously.
He was dating my daughter and needed a summer job. My first thought was good, I can UA him and see if he’s a drug user. My second thought was I can see what type of man he is. I cleared it with the GM and hired him. I didn’t let anyone in the plant know that he was dating my daughter. I had his supervisor give him some of the dirtiest/hardest jobs. After a while the supervisor asked me what I had against this guy. Some of my key personnel asked me the same question. To his credit he never shirked away from the assignments, but he hated them. When it was his last week to be there, I told everyone he was dating my daughter. There response was they never wanted to date my daughter. It was good for a laugh.
Today he works for one of the large drug companies, monitoring their computer systems. Makes more money than I ever did.
Depends on how shiny the state is. I noted, some time ago, on the occasion of Farmington Hills Public dropping the fee to play sports, but they charge a fee to take most academic classes. The fee is usually $10-$20/semester, but some get steep. Debate costs $160. That is on top of the students needing to buy their supplies, and their parents paying taxes.
Fifty-odd years ago, when I started high school, I paid no tuition, but did need to buy books and supplies, until a court decision that free public education meant free. After than books were loaned by the school, and pens, pencils, and paper were issued at the start of each semester.
“Commie” states, like CT, may reduce the cost of an education, but I expect the “freeedom” states to continue making it harder to obtain an education, and easier to take a menial job.
The Freedom is for ejits because it is only a simple lie to ejits. Being paid a lot less is not “Freedom”. It is horrible mismanagement. It is holding the country back. Mississippi has not yet figured out why its economy is so backward.
I had a paper route when I was younger than that. I was neither encouraged nor discouraged by my parents, but I wanted to have my own money. I also worked the cafeteria through high school (hey! I got out of 4th period class 10 minutes early so I could eat before the rush!) and I did various other things to earn money.
Between the paper route and (mandatory) piano practice, I learned the value of discipline, which I guess is why I hate it to this day
But depending on the time required and the job I have no objection to kids working. In factories, probably not, but there are lots of things they can do which don’t necessarily detract from education - and for some of them there are valuable life lessons to be learned. (And for many, “education” is not going to do that much for them anyway, frankly.) It’s unfashionable to say it, but there are always going to be manual labor jobs, even with the increase of mechanization and robotics, and there are going to be people to do it. And yes, there will be resentment towards others *(notably immigrants) who also do it, but hey, that’s life.
