INFN and popular posts...

Three months ago, when INFN cratered from $15 to $12 overnight, somebody published a post how this is such a wonderful opportunity to buy on the cheap, how the market is so stupid and patience is a virtue.

That post received 50+ recs and was even selected at POTD by the Fool, highlighting the fact that the most popular posts are not always those who provide sound financial advise but rather those who provide temporary psychological comfort.

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Three months ago, when INFN cratered from $15 to $12 overnight, somebody published a post how this is such a wonderful opportunity to buy on the cheap, how the market is so stupid and patience is a virtue.

That post received 50+ recs and was even selected at POTD by the Fool, highlighting the fact that the most popular posts are not always those who provide sound financial advise but rather those who provide temporary psychological comfort.

Not defending INFN (don’t really care), but keep in mind that Apple was a crappy investment throughout the 80’s and 90’s. Patience could indeed be a virtue here, but “you pays your money and you takes your chances”. The fact that you have 14 recs now, and the post you cite got 50 recs, doesn’t matter a whit to the ultimate fate of INFN, or any other stock.

I will say that these ‘1/3 off sales’ are a good reminder of the importance of diversification. I’d personally rather get rich slowly than not at all.

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keep in mind that Apple was a crappy investment throughout the 80’s and 90’s

To be fair though it didn’t get great by selling the things from the 90’s. It wasn’t like the market finally caught up with Apple’s 1995 vision and started buying Power Macs an masse in the 2000’s

No, Apple didn’t start being great until they changed what they were doing radically. Food for thought…

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Saul and everyone else who contributes to this board emphasizes that we each do our own due diligence on our own investments. How many times has it been written NOT to invest in a stock just b/c Saul started an investment in it, or anyone else here?!

Some investments will make you money and some will lose you money. Each of us is ultimately responsible for putting our own money at risk in the stock market. To point a finger at someone’s recommendation weeks or months or years ago and try to place blame for your own decision is lame. If you are a regular reader here, you KNOW how much time and attention is put into these investing posts.

If you cannot tolerate the ups and downs of the market, you should not be investing in stocks. Try ETFs or mutual funds or bonds.

Wandern

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If you cannot tolerate the ups and downs of the market, you should not be investing in stocks.

Thanks for the advice. Not necessary. I never invested in that dog.

One thing I like about this board, or at least used to like, is that it is a place for individuals to come together to share thoughts, ideas, research, etc. And, in doing so, to be respectful of each other.

Some of the recent posts about INFN, however, seem to be saying:

I told you so; and

You were foolish to invest in that stock or to not sell before now.

I could point out some stocks that some people on this board, including Saul, passed on even though those stocks have turned out to be good investments. I could also point out some so-called “Saul stocks” that turned out to be dogs. But I don’t believe that would be productive.

For those individuals on this board who own shares of INFN, the drop in price likely is painful enough; comments that imply those same individuals made a mistake by purchasing shares in the first seems to me like throwing salt in the wound, and is not only unnecessary, but insensitive as well.

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I could point out some stocks that some people on this board, including Saul, passed on even though those stocks have turned out to be good investments. I could also point out some so-called “Saul stocks” that turned out to be dogs. But I don’t believe that would be productive.

For those individuals on this board who own shares of INFN, the drop in price likely is painful enough; comments that imply those same individuals made a mistake by purchasing shares in the first seems to me like throwing salt in the wound, and is not only unnecessary, but insensitive as well.

You are absolutely right Speedy. I apologize for my told you so post. It was inappropriate and uncalled for.

Saul

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Apology accepted Saul.
My respect for you, as significant as it was before, has now increased ten-fold.

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" I apologize for my told you so post. It was inappropriate and uncalled for."

I am not too happy today since I am long INFN. However, I thought your post was important. In my quest to become a more knowledgeable investor, I need to learn from past mistakes, so I don’t repeat them. If I decide my investment in INFN was a mistake (still on the fence about that)I will look back at your post as a source to see what my error was and how I can do better next time.

So thanks for posting that (even though it might have hurt some feelings),

Oli

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For the record, INFN is/was/has been recommended by AT LEAST 3 MF services. Even after/during the sinking stock price. I understand technology and have read some excellent write ups on said technology.

It all seems solid, yet here we are. Personally, I’ve been an investment disaster since July 2015. To the point where I’ve undone the previous year’s good work. 10% losses during a time of 7.5% S&P growth does not make for a stellar record.

I’ve tried ditching stocks that broke my thesis (not afraid to take the loss and try somewhere else). And I’ve tried patience where the thesis seems intact. Still in the hole. Maybe I just need more patience and a longer timeline.

I’ve been a good business analyst in my profession, but so far it has not helped me in my personal investments. What a humbling indulgence.

  • Bob (long face) :wink:
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The point of my post is not to say “I told you so”. It is to point out that there are some very charismatic people on this board that can craft pretty powerful posts. Some of these posters are often wrong but never in doubt, so buyer beware.

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Rightly or wrongly, I bought back in today, after having sold half of position on 5/5 and then all out on 7/19…Starting a new smaller position for now.

Frank

And I would add that a post very similar to the one cited by YouAre#6 is probably buried somewhere in the archives of the Fool from the fall of 2012. I am not sure of that, but the stock had fallen into the 4 dollar range and I am pretty sure somebody must have posted “now is the time to buy”. I did buy, and bought a lot in that range. So today, on those shares, I am still looking at a near double in 4 years. So most would say that was great advice back then, and who can say that those buying at 12 recently might not have the same experience. You simply can not judge over such a short time frame. Another example over on the MDP boards would be the same advice being given when Tile Shop Holdings was sold by MDP. Several posters said “now is a great time to buy”, again I did, I bought in the 7 dollar range and now several years later the stock is bouncing around 18. My point is that for every example you can find of the trade going one way you can probably find one going the other way. It is insignificant in the end.
And we all know that no one posting on these boards is infallible, they are simply giving their most reasoned thoughts. If some of the most well known analysts in the country got blind sided by this, and they did, I don’t think we can fault anyone posting on this board that held a similar opinion, prior to the quarterly report.
And lastly, to Saul I must have missed your “I told you so post”, but anybody past the age of 6 surely knows it is one of the most satisfying things a human can do. LOL As Sheldon would say, “I informed you thusly”.
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=I+informed+you+thusly&a…
So it was nice of you to apologize, but we all get it. When your right you want shout it out, from sports to finance, to romance when we are right we like to let folks know. So if I had read the post I would not have been upset, Because you informed us thusly.
Mike

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Apple was pretty much downhill during the whole time when Steve Jobs was gone, and several CEO’s were floundering around with various ineffective strategies. I don’t think it would have made much sense to hang on to the stock during those years.

For the record, INFN is/was/has been recommended by AT LEAST 3 MF services

That’s not unusual. Many MF services can only draw from the MF universe of stocks. In effect, TMF dabbles in stock pumping.

I’m not dissing INFN (I’ve got a bundle of shares myself), but just saying the TMF recs don’t necessarily walk on water.

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Three months ago, when INFN cratered from $15 to $12 overnight, somebody published a post how this is such a wonderful opportunity to buy on the cheap, how the market is so stupid and patience is a virtue.

That post received 50+ recs and was even selected at POTD by the Fool, highlighting the fact that the most popular posts are not always those who provide sound financial advise but rather those who provide temporary psychological comfort.

So where were you NumberSix when the post was made? Can you please point me to the post you made where you said this was wrong?

I am surprised this post has been given so many Recs. First of all it is easy for anyone to run down another posters views after the fact. It would have been more impressive if at the time of the post NumberSix would have said he disagreed but no he has to wait until the stock takes a fall.

What everyone has to understand is that this is a free board. Everyone making posts on this board are doing it with their own free time. Nobody gets paid for this. We used to have a lot more analysis and people working together to make better investments. Nobody would blame or run down another persons view but disagree respectfully. Sometimes mistakes were made, after all we all are learning. But to disparage another posters post because something happened to a stock in one quarter is ridiculous. I am going on the record right now and telling everyone that anyone that buys this stock now will be very happy in two years. But I will also say that you must watch the stock because it is an equipment company and they are cyclical. But this is the strongest cycle that I have seen in the last 20 years.

Finally, You must not just follow but learn to invest on your own. If you kill this golden goose by running down the very people that are bringing forth ideas, you will kill this board. Instead of reccing posts that are tearing down other posters, lets rec the people that are doing the real work.

Andy
Who like a previous poster said, “I used to read every post on this board”

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So where were you NumberSix when the post was made? Can you please point me to the post you made where you said this was wrong?

Actually, I did. I posted a one-liner response back then, saying that “Those who refuse to sell INFN at $12 will end up selling at $10.”

Turns out I was overly generous. They will not get a chance to dump it at $10, not anytime soon. It was clear that this was a broken stock 3 months ago. Saul himself exited that position at $12.

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So where were you NumberSix when the post was made? Can you please point me to the post you made where you said this was wrong?

Actually, I did. I posted a one-liner response back then, saying that “Those who refuse to sell INFN at $12 will end up selling at $10.”

Great lets see your response to that post then. Just point me to the link where you gave a great one line analysis of Infinera.

Andy

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Speedy - Nice post on speaking up to keep the quality of this board the best I’ve seen anywhere.

Saul - your quick apology shows excellent character and increases my confidence that time spent here will continue to be valuable for all.

I just renewed my annual MFRB subscription despite my feeling that management has moved on to their newer Fool One group fulltime. Seems like many of the paid boards fall into long off topic social discussions vice stocks and company performance and risks. I still like their stock selections and descriptions of why they are selected though.

As for this INFN thread, whether you were right or wrong to have bought or sold all depends on your time frame of interest. If your goals are short term, the evidence shows buying and holding was dead wrong. If you have a goal to gradually grow your wealth over a longer time frame, this one is not giving back to the shareholders very much either. A very long time frame is still unknown. I feel like many get stuck in the psychology that they just need to wait long enough and their thesis will come true. I personally do not have the patience to wait and would rather have money in companies that have bumps up showing strength and market confidence than a stock that gets pounded down based on performance and not due to unjustified orchestrated short attacks. Yes, I’m still working on my patience.

I’ve been in and out of INFN a couple of times in the last year, but had LUCK to not be in during the major drops. I wasn’t invested when Saul posted his views, but I thank him for sharing his skill on what he notices to bring this kind of luck his way.

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I am going on the record right now and telling everyone that anyone that buys this stock now will be very happy in two years.

Here we go again… Often wrong but never in doubt.