Investment opportunities during transistions.

All the recent posts have shown that there are many opportunites in the renewable energy field. As this is basically an investment website, what are the areas or individual companies you are looking at for a maximum ROI?

Is Tesla stocks still a good buy? Maybe it’s Rivian? Are Lithium mining stocks? Or the new Plastic batteries? Solar? Wind?

Where does the greatest opportunity lie?


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There are so many new technology companies out there. Lots of good ideas. But I think we know they cannot all succeed. There is not enough market out there for all to reach their goals. That makes such investments risky.

How can Sony with a hit like Walkman fail to do the iPod? It takes good management making the right choices. Not a sure thing.

I think Tesla’s price earnings ratio with new large plants coming on line is a reasonable investment at this point. The risk is still getting through supply chain issues to make all those cars and find buyers for them.

I think lithium is likely to do pretty well for now. SQM and Albemarle are the big ones. Lithium is a commodity. Lots of other players are expanding. Will they keep the lead? Or will someone else do it better.

Rivian looks promising but its early. I like the growth part of the S curve once they start making profits.

Your mileage may vary. Others are willing to take more risk.

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I dunno

“The PE ratio is a simple way to assess whether a stock is over or under valued and is the most widely used valuation measure. Tesla PE ratio as of June 09, 2022 is 97.57.”

That’s almost 100…compared to most companies in the teens and 20s…

You need a LOT of market share growth by Telsa - and I think they will be facing major opposition from other incumbent car companies. They’d have to expand by a factor of five without borrowing a whole lot more to get the P/E down to the 20s.

Despite the hype, the Tesla Cybertruck is way late in arriving. At some point, the ‘newness’ of Telsas might wear off…and folks might be more interested in a ‘conventional’ appearing car/SUV that is electric, where they can buy it at their local dealer and test drive it along with other models they are considering.

So far, the main advantage to Telsa owners is the network of Telsa only Super Chargers - but with 500,000 other Level 3 chargers coming…that too many not be that great of an incentive for folks to buy Tesla instead of Ford or Chevy.

Rivian? So far not much to brag about…25 billion market cap. Earnings - zip. P/E infinite. I think the Ford Lightning will be the death knell for Rivian. Down 45% this year so far.

Think too many are chasing ‘dot com’ stocks again…overall market down - Techs down 40%…though…

Same for lithium, nickel, copper miners other than big conglomerates…chasing dot com like stocks…


Tesla’s PE has been high based on earnings for the last four quarters. They are ramping up production in Texas and just starting production in Germany.

If you multiply the earnings reported last quarter by 4, thats a reasonable base estimate for next year. Then add 30% growth from new capacity.

I get a forward PE of 40. For Tesla that is close to a peg ratio of one.

Looks like a buying opportunity to me.


How can Sony with a hit like Walkman fail to do the iPod?

I can answer that.

Numerous companies had MP3 players before the iPod. But mostly all small companies.
MP3 files were not considered “legal” by anyone involved in the recording industry such as Sony was/is.
There were several failed negotiations that went around the industry on how to make a device with licensed music so it couldn’t be copied. No one came up with a good enough plan while they were trying to stop rampant online copying of MP3s (i.e. Napster).