Iran’s Grip on Hormuz is Tightens

The Economic Times

So far in March, the first full month of war, barely six vessels per day on average have traversed the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the world, in either direction. That compares with about 135 a day in normal times, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/30/business/lng-supply-asia-qatar-iran.html?unlocked_article_code=1.XFA.lqMI.t2rjhV0sBl-N&smid=url-share
With a cutoff in shipments imminent, Asian countries, the biggest importers of liquefied natural gas from the Middle East, are already burning more coal and reducing consumption.

Countries across Asia are bracing for a complete cutoff in coming days of Middle Eastern liquefied natural gas, a fuel that underpins power generation and industrial output across much of the region.

“It’s a significant tightening of the market — we’re talking reduced production until the end of the decade,” said Henning Gloystein, managing director for energy at Eurasia Group, a political risk research firm. In Asia, in the next week, “that’s when the actual impact, the physical impact, of nondelivery will begin to happen,” he said.

*Asia’s biggest economies — China, Japan, India and South Korea — and emerging markets like Vietnam and Thailand all rely significantly on L.N.G. for power. *

Countries across Asia that can are switching to oil- and coal-powered electricity generation and in some cases aggressively curtailing consumption. These measures are likely to intensify as the war’s disruption of energy flows drags on, energy experts say.

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And in Europe.

Iran War’s Gas Supply Shock Pushes Top Consumers Back to Coal
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-29/iran-war-s-gas-supply-shock-pushes-top-consumers-back-to-coal
Power analysts with the London Stock Exchange Group estimate European countries could generate around 20% more electricity from coal this summer than last, if the European gas benchmark averages about 50 euros per megawatt-hour. That figure currently stands at around 54 euros.

DB2

Don’t worry. Operation “Get away as fast as we can” is about to begin.

And we’re leaving the mess for everybody else to clean up.

Hegseth, Caine Hold Live Briefing on Iran War

The press conference comes after President Trump lashed out at U.S. allies, pushing them to launch their own operation to wrest control of the Strait of Hormuz.

https://www.wsj.com/

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“Trump has a hissy-fit that NATO isn’t bailing him out of his massive mistake”.

There, fixed that headline for them. :smiley:

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Everyone wants to know what he will do w the military forces accumulating in the mideast. We should know one of these days. Or is he bluffing hoping for a deal w Iran?

Why would Iran deal with him now? He tore up the 2018 agreement that everyone said was being followed and was working. Then he killed Iran leadership just weeks ago DURING NEGOTIATIONS.

Seriously, why would Iran deal with him now? Why would anyone trust this administration? Even NATO is telling us to pound sand.

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Japan has been burning more coal and less gas for power generation since the war in the Middle East started, and it is not the only one. All Asian countries have made the switch from gas to coal on affordability and availability grounds…

Reuters reported earlier this week that the Asian benchmark price for gas on the spot market averaged $17.33 per million British thermal units in June. This compared with an average gas price of $13.19 per mmBtu in Europe. This diverted more U.S. cargoes of liquefied gas to Asia, which for the first time in two years became the destination for more than 50% of U.S. LNG shipments.

Japan is the world’s second-largest buyer of liquefied natural gas after China but it has had to reduce these purchases because of the price issue…

DB2

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The strait is closed again. US attacks upon Iran escalate to bring a humbled Iran to the peace table. The president claims our nation will take control of the Strait of Hormuz and will be paid for administrating it.

I’m quite surprised as the US Navy has been ineffective outside the strait. And now the price of oil will soar* likely wreaking havoc upon the US economy. And this will be a blow to the GOP in November assuming the strait remains closed.

Meanwhile Iran has been attacking US bases in nearby Arab nations. I wonder if Iran has any assets within the US to do any terrorist attacks?

*I have been wondering why gasoline price haven’t ratcheting significantly due to the prior strait closure. According to the NYTimes we have China to thank for that. But it very well end as China will need to re-instated the volume of oil imports.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/13/business/energy-environment/oil-prices-iran-china.html
For decades, OPEC influenced the market by how much oil it produced. But China, the largest importer, is demonstrating its remarkable power over prices.

Typically the world’s largest oil importer, China slashed purchases this spring, reducing demand by so much that it prevented oil prices from soaring even higher earlier in the war.

Now, one of the biggest questions facing the market is: When will China start buying more oil again? The longer the country holds back, the lower oil prices are likely to go. The reverse is also true. A pickup in demand from China would raise prices, all else being equal.

“Where Chinese demand goes is really the most important piece of the puzzle,” said Karen Young, a senior research scholar at the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy.

It remains a mystery to most of the market how China has managed to slash imports by almost a third compared with a year earlier, according to May customs data released by Beijing.

Another significant factor is the Russia-Ukraine war. Wholesale diesel prices soared last week after Russia, one of the world’s biggest exporters, banned overseas diesel sales to preserve supplies at home. Ukrainian drone attacks have severely damaged Russian oil refineries, limiting the country’s ability to turn oil into transportation fuel.

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And Mexico will pay for the wall.

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Whatever happened to the “You broke it, you bought it” policy?

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No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway. That’s existing international law. That’s the way it is in international waterways all over the world, and that’s the way we expect it’ll be here.

–Sec. of State Marco Rubio

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That didn’t take long. It was announced on TACO Tuesday that we won’t be charging tolls after all.

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After five consecutive days of US attack waves, the Iranian military has yet to show signs of backing off its assertions of ‘control’ over the Strait of Hormuz, and its military has newly warned that the energy transit waterway is an “unbreakable red line” which it will enforce.

On Wednesday President Trump warned that if Iran doesn’t come back to the negotiating table - while relinquishing control of Hormuz - that by next week strikes will expand to include civic and energy infrastructure, such as bridges.

Tehran has in turn counter-threatened to destroy “all infrastructure throughout the region” if Trump acts on this threat to attack Iran’s vital infrastructure cites.

There are already signs that Iran could be making good on this threat, with Reuters reporting that “Iraq briefly suspended oil ​loadings on Thursday before resuming them after a drone hit an oil ‌tanker at its Basra terminal, four Iraqi oil and security sources told Reuters.”

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How do you tighten a grip on something where you already have a complete stranglehold?

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