I asked it what would happen to China if the Strait remained effectively closed for 9 months. For example: If Iran was able to destroy the ports that ship oil so that the oil wells had to be shut in and those wells taking a ling time to be brought back online.
China can probably get by. Grab
a few barrels here and there, Accelerate electrification. become more efficient, release reserves.
India on the other hand would be looking at famine, civil unrest and a collapsing economy. Think pictures like we saw from the Somali famine except a not city sized death, country sized death.
I cannot wrap my head around the implications so am tending to discard the analysis as fanciful. Still a long oil pause will likely have the biggest repercussions in India the most populous and what was one of the fastest growing economies on the planet.
Howdy Qaz!
It is definitely an interesting scenario to be able to ask questions to AI in a major conflict situation. As I was thinking about the Hormuz Strait closure, I was also thinking about impacts. With China, I think a few days after the conflict started, China indicated it was going to stop refinery product exports. China imports a fair amount of crude oil, but after refining into clean products (aviation fuel, refined fuel, diesel, etc), some of it gets shipped out. So China is already responding to reduced crude flows. The problem becomes the countries that are/were dependent on China for the refined exports. Major trade partners on refined petroleum products (for 2025) included
Hong Kong $7.88B
Singapore $6.7B
Liberia $2.18B
Philippines $2.14B
Australia $2.06B
China refines crude oil, then sends it half way around the globe to … Liberia! Or Australia, who after shutting down most of its refineries, is left with 2 refineries that only cover 50% of their internal use.
Correction on the Australian stat – Australia imports 85% - 90% of its refined fuel and diesel. The two refineries is correct.
”Australia’s economy is also particularly sensitive to diesel supply disruptions. Diesel is essential for sectors such as mining, freight transport, agriculture and construction, meaning shortages can quickly ripple through the broader economy.”
China’s agricultural sector is heavily dependent on energy products—specifically oil for machinery and natural gas for fertilizer—with nearly half of its crude oil imports and roughly one-third of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) sourced from the Middle East. This creates a high exposure to price spikes and supply disruptions in that region.
As I am typing a response, the date shows up in the thread - from the literary side, the rich and symbollic warning from the play, “Julius Caesar”, … “Beware the Ides of March …”
One more related item to this thread – Clean product tankers needing to move West of Hormuz to pick up cargos.