Iran war and global commodity prices

[WendyBG]

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/business/iran-war-impact-helium-urea-sulfur.html

It’s Not Just Oil. The Iran War Is Disrupting Many Essential Goods.

Prices of some commodities are already rising, while stockpiles of others could dwindle as the war drags on.

By Kailyn Rhone, The New York Times, March 10, 2026

The disruption to global commodity prices from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is spreading far beyond energy markets.

From basic plastics and fertilizer made in Saudi Arabia and Oman to sugar from Brazil and helium from Qatar, the conflict has affected the price, supply or production of a variety of commodities that are essential to the global economy…

Here are six major commodities, besides oil and gas, that are being affected by the war.

Aluminum prices jumped to their highest level in almost four years on Monday as shipments from the region were disrupted, and by Tuesday afternoon the metal was up some 8 percent for the month…

With oil prices soaring, ethanol jumped about 10 percent from the start of the war through the end of trading Monday. Gains like that could lead Brazilian processors to plan to use more cane for fuel [instead of sugar for food] when the next harvest begins in the coming weeks…

Roughly one-third of the world’s traded urea, the dominant form of nitrogen fertilizer, normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz. It’s produced in the Middle East because natural gas is an essential feedstock for the fertilizer… Urea prices have risen as much as 35 percent since the war began.

Sulfur, which is produced during oil and gas refining, is also essential for fertilizer production, and used in many other industries…

“The loss of fertilizers could significantly impact the global agricultural sector, which could raise food costs and decrease food security globally…”

More than a quarter of the world’s helium supply could be cut off if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed…[end quote]

We saw during the Covid supply chain disruptions how interruptions of a single vital commodity could disrupt downstream production. The Iran war could cause inflation more widespread than just fuel prices.

Wendy

[Leap1]

This aspect won’t get worse, but will be very bad for a long time to come. The war is won in terms of shutting down the leadership. Now the problem is the Guard. As long as they want to fight the Straits of Hormuz won’t be fully operational. There is no such thing as partially operational.

This is interesting. I imagine Iranian shipments to China will be shutdown as Russian oil replaces it. But for now…

Google Sources

CNBC and Connecticuts WFSB channel 3 CBS

Based on reports from early March 2026, the situation regarding the Strait of Hormuz is highly volatile, with conflicting reports on whether Iranian oil exports are being completely halted or if Iran is using its control of the strait to prioritize its own shipments to China while blocking others.

[image]CNBC +4

• Potential Impact of Full Closure: A full, sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt roughly $1 billion in global oil shipments per day.
• Iran’s Position: Reports as of March 11, 2026, indicate that despite the turmoil, Iran has continued to send millions of barrels of crude oil to China through the Strait, with some data suggesting their shipments have actually increased slightly to around 2.1 million barrels per day during the initial days of the conflict.
• Broader Economic Impact: While Iran may be attempting to continue its own exports, the broader, prolonged closure of the strait (which handles roughly 20% of global oil) is expected to have “catastrophic consequences” for global oil markets, potentially driving Brent crude prices over $100–$150 per barrel.
• Alternative Export Routes: While Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines to bypass the Strait (with a combined capacity of around 2.6 million barrels per day), the majority of oil transiting the strait has no alternative, making a complete blockage a major risk to the region’s overall economy.

[image]CNBC +5

In summary, as of the latest information on March 11, 2026, Iran is actively using its military presence in the Strait of Hormuz to block shipments from other nations, while attempting to maintain its own, although the overall disruption is causing massive, unpredictable shifts in global energy prices.

[image]WFSB +2