Is anybody losing value

Is anybody losing value? It is only going to get worse next year.

https://discussion.fool.com/losing-value-in-their-wonderful-port…

SPY is still heading south.

Something to ponder.

Quillnpenn -

“Is anybody losing value?”

Quill,

What kind of silly question is that? Yes, of course, anyone who isn’t selling short --or who is long nearly anything but energy-- is losing money. The better question to ask is whether the current price declines are temporary reversals or the beginnings of something more serious.

Answer: Prices were up due the Fed’s free money, not genuine fundamentals, and those distortions of value are now being corrected. Worse, due to our dear government’s provoking of the Russian bear, the role of $US dollar in trade is being displaced as 2/3rds of the world’s economies move away from fiat currencies and toward sound money, which will mean a sustained depression for us here in the US.

Arindam

3 Likes

Quill,

Another question you could have asked is this. “When does Buy-and-Hold work well, and when does it fail?”

The linked article suggests an answer, the same one Ben Stein put forth years ago in his book, Yes, You Can Time the Market, namely, that for B&H to offer the returns that are promised by the method, the buying has to be done when stocks are cheaply priced relative to their intrinsic value, which isn’t the market we are now in. Ben Graham makes the same point in his classic intro to value investing, The Intelligent Investor. Yet another way to state the problem is to say that markets have a “growth style” of investing sometimes and a “value style” other times. So, to do well, you’ve gotta know which market phase you’re in and put money to work accordingly.

Arindam

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/buy-and-hold-investing-it-…

2 Likes

Quill,

Friday’s close on the SP500 put us officially into a bear market. Definitely time to start selling short, given we’re going to see another (-20%) to (-40%) down from here.

Arindam

Aridam,

re: buyin shorts ( not the Tommy John’s).

As advertised, the Tetter Totters are doin extremely well in protecting our ASSets. :o)))

eg… Direxion Daily S&P500 Bear 3X - The SPXS / SPXL and the QQQ / PSQ that I have been trading since 2006 are doing their job.

PSQ is up 20.4766 since 3/30/2022 and SPXS is up 14.2857 percent. SQQQ your fav, is up 66.6981 percent. Congrats.

Can go on and on and on @ happy we are doin.

Not too shabby don’t you think. Wonder how the gurls are doin.

Tyme to work on the new 2.5 percent theory gig.

Something the ponder,

Quillnpenn - aka the GOAT (greatest of all time)

Quill,

I was mostly trading long this morning.

I did some quick, 3-4 minute, round trips on stuff being over-sold and due for a bounce. Also traded the -3x inverse for the SP500 index a couple of times, making decent money. But mostly, I’m just treading water until the real selling down begins. Then I get serious about trying to find classic, Ben Graham-style bargains that might be worth the risk of buying without knowing where the bottom might be.

Arindam

1 Like

Quill,

Today’s trading scorecard looks like this: 15 round trips --13 longs, 2 shorts-- with 11 wins, 1 scratch, and 3 losses, where gains were 6 times greater than losses due to some judicious position sizing. Where I did take a beating is on the investing side of things with positions in miners I’m building. I’m not messing with the juniors and am only buying companies with clean balance sheets that offer steep discounts to fair value. In time, those bets should pay off. But carrying the losses in the interim is annoying.

Given the overall downward direction of the market, the “proper” stance today might have been to sell short. But I don’t yet sense there’s enough disinterest and disgust. There’s panic and fear, for sure, but not yet “capitulation”. Hence, it’s still pretty easy to trade countertrend and to make money.

I do see that that DIS is down again today, closing at $107 (compared to its high of $187 a year ago). Why shareholders aren’t suing the company’s directors for their total disregard of their fiduciary responsibilities is beyond me to understand. The directors and their leftist, Marxist policies have trashed what used to be an admired company. But these days, anyone with kids steers them away from Disney and its products.

Arindam

1 Like

Hi Quillnpenn,

I know you mentioned you use some totter principles/ Simon’s rules… but I wasn’t able to find that on the link you sent,…and sorry, i tried googling too, but to no avail. Would you mind explaining a bit on how you choose a trade, and what rules you follow to trigger a buy and sell signal.
Thanks a lot,
Charlie

Simon III, and company will make you a wealthy person over time by learning Risk and Money Management skills.

See Simon Sez III below

re: Swing Trading
re: Stockcharts
re: Barchart
re: Price Label
re: 999 to 1000 percent batting average

So What Is Swing Trading?

Swing trading is the buying and selling of stocks all within the timeframe of a few days or several weeks. It’s a lot like day trading except for the timeframe. After each buy and sell cycle, your slate is clean with no carry-over. It’s the opposite of passive, low-maintenance investing. Swing trading is active short-term investing because the “buy and hold” mantra does not apply.

Simon Sez III. “Wait-one bar” after Price label to Price label rule signal per Simon’s Werld® by Quillnpenn revised 12/1/2020.
Re: New ACP stock charts via Stockcharts.com for subscribers or non-subscribers.
Re: RIOT
re: $ETHUSD daily
re: $ETHUSD 30 minute.

When a Price label appears to do the following:

1 ) For the TOP Price Label, we wait and wait until the next bar when the price drops below the high signal to SELL the stock to help protect your ASSets.

2 ) For the BOTTOM Price Label, we wait and wait until the next bar when the Price bar is rising upwards to BUY the stock.

For the very first time when viewing a chart, the default will appear, however, make some minor adjustments for a better view. When the Setup procedure is complete (see way below), the charts will always pop correctly thereafter.


Cheat Sheet:

Class - Simon Sez III - Holy Grail

Holy Grail: “Something that people want very much, but which is very
difficult or impossible to achieve”. Like getting a hole-in-one on a golf course.

Okay now for the Holy Grail part of having fun without really trying.
I believe we can make money with the aid of Simon. If NOT, you get detention for failing to read and review the two (2) simple rules.

The Rules:

Here are the following rules that I found so far broken into two (2)
parts. TOP and BOTTOM.

To SELL @

TOP: When you see the Price label = Wait-one bar rule applies to SELL to help protect your ASSets.

When you see the RED Candle, GREEN Candlestick BELOW the Price label (centered) = SELL immediately when it appears.


To BUY @

BOTTOM: When you see the Price label = Wait-one bar rule applies to BUY.

When you see the GREEN Candle, RED Candlestick ABOVE the Price label (Centered) = BUY immediately when it appears.

I am using the Daily and the 30-minute charts to make money faster. 4-hour chart for the cryptos all day long.

These charts are good for swing trading and for long-term investments such as the XL’s (xle, xlc, xlf, et.,al) to hold and trade forever since 1999. Includes Dividends at the end each QUARTER eg…3-6-9-12. Stocks must be bought before the ex-dividend date. NOT on, but before the date to get the dividend checks thereafter.

XLK Snapshot - The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund XLK - Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund.

Snapshot - All Sector SPDR ETFs has been swing trading the XL’s since January 1999 with a 999 to 1000 percent batting average.

These charts are perfect for Tetter Tottering via the MDP (Million Dollar Portfolio) eg…SPXL / SPXS : QQQ / PSQ.

The Teeter Totter Principle is all about using a “seesaw” to balance your Nest Egg’s cash and investments.

Note !

ACP stock charts: if a subscriber, go to stockcharts.com otherwise the charts can’t be seen.

  1. Call up stockcharts
  2. far left click on Charts & Tools
  3. enter the ticker symbol where it says "StockChartsACP [new]
  4. enter DOCU which will show all of the rules that are used as an example. ZM will show an example of a loss on 11/09/20. We don’t care, just move on.
  5. clean the left side and clean the right side to show a Daily or 30-minute chart.

Use $SPX as a reference to show how the market is doing in comparison to your favourite chart.


How to set up the Stockcharts with the new ACP charts.

  1. Go to stockcharts.com assuming you are now a paid subscriber. If not, you can use the Kwik Setup at the bottom.
  2. click on Charts & Tools
  3. enter a ticker symbol in the StockchartsACP [new]
  4. now we have to set up the bells and whistles to look like the sample charts. At the top insert the XLE ticker symbol to the right of the word Stockcharts.
  5. at the top is a high-lited blue icon.
  6. below the XLE ticker will be 3 lines to be added. 5 o’clock position.
  7. the first line is a type of chart. I have Heikin-Ash
  8. second line RSI (4) by selecting the RSI from the indicators below.
    8a. Click on the word RSI
  9. make cosmetic adjustments. The period should say 4
  10. Click on the rsi line to dark blue
  11. Click on overbought to blueish and look at the sample.
  12. Click on the Oversold to red-ish
  13. Close
  14. Next add StochasticRSI from the indicators pool
  15. Make cosmetic adjustments. The period should say 14
  16. Repeat the same colour patterns as above.
  17. Close
    17a. Go back to the top and click on the first line below the CHART SETTINGS, then go to the bottom and click on Up Color, change to Dark Green.
    17b. Close
  18. Click on the second icon from the top and then look for Murphy (default) for color schemes. At a later time, you can change to what you like.
  19. Click on the 4th icon from the top and the default should have a blue dot next to the word trendline.
  20. go back up to the first icon image.
  21. review all the settings colors starting with Henkin-Ashi, then RSI(4), then StochRSI (14).
  22. Done and now click on SAVE at the top black URL line.
  23. On the far right is more ICONs loaded with good information. You can monitor how my XLs are doing by clicking on the Globe ICON and then Sector SPDRs and then click on a ticker symbol.

Now, click on the Daily and play with other timetables. If not a subscriber, you won’t be able to see the different timetables. The 4 hours I use for trading $ETHUSD all day long.


For a Kwik setup as a non-subscriber.

  1. Call up stock charts

  2. Click on charts & Tools

  3. Enter PYPL in the Stockcharts ACP [new] box as an example

  4. At the top black bar, I am currently using OHLC BARS and CANDLESTICKS

  5. Where it says PYPL - PayPal Holdings, Inc. , click on the ICON to the left and then click on the sprocket wheel on the right.

  6. Near the bottom are other settings and make sure the Price Labels and Y-Asix Labels boxes are checked off

  7. Close

  8. Next, add StochRSI(14) indicators as a confirmation signal to buy the stock. The cyan at the top is for selling as it crosses below the 0.80 line.

  9. Make changes to the blue (cyan) and the pink on the bottom

  10. Click off the blue chart pattern icon off (top left-hand corner).

  11. Viggle the mouse back and forth for fun

  12. Click on CANDLESTICKS at the top to see what it looks like

  13. Next, add the True Strength Index (TSI)

  14. Make changes to the period settings to 16,8,4.

  15. change colors for the TSI Line to Green, and Signal Line to Red.

  16. The TSI is a confirmation to the Price labels. Green crossing up and over the red line is a buy signal. The inverse for selling.

  17. Click on C L O S E .

Being FREE you can’t see the minute-by-minute charts in the Daily box at the top. The daily is the default.

For fun look at UBER Daily chart and see my progress with 1000 shares at each buy signal starting way back in November. Should see 6 1/2 successful trades at 1000 shares

Enjoy the successful journey that has been presented. Please take your time. This is a life time project of earning wealth.

I wish you the best and if you need more help just yell. If you are missing the price labels just yell.

Quillnpenn - a poor church mouse scratching for a living as a Swing Trader for over 45 years.

Thank you so much Quillnpenn. Very grateful for that. Once again, thanks a lot for being kind and taking the time to teach.
Charlie

Charlie,

To see charts in full detail, you might have to subscribe as a life time project.

Take your time and practice practice and practice to make an informed decision within a few seconds.
My two nieces who are 9th graders are in the 6 figures now ever 6th grade under the supervision of there mother. They chose the HD and COST and the Tetter Totter principle trades of just 2 pairs. one is the SPXL / SPXS.

Re: how to choose a trade at the below.

All US Exchanges Five Day Gainers - Barchart.com at around 9:45am EST. start off with the highest volume by clicking on the 5D Avg Vol column.

Commodity, stock and forex; quotes, charts & analysis | Barchart.com follow the RED dots for selling and GREEN for buying.

If you want to be a very healthy wealthy swing trader, just trade the below two for the rest you journey.

ACP | StockCharts.com Have traded COST since May 1st, 2007 via the power of compounding.

ACP | StockCharts.com via the power of compounding.

https://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr - Spiders I own all of the SPDRs since 2006 and trade per Simon Sez III. It only takes 10 minutes of work every morning at 9:45 am EST and again at 3:30pm EST They all pay a nice dividend every quarter.
The 12 spider is XRT that is missing from the list. Make money with Simon Sez wheather the market goes up or goes down. It does not matter as show on the each chart.

I wish you the best

Quillnpenn -

1 Like

Thanks a lot Quillnpenn. This is very kind of you. Will definitely make an earnest attempt to try and learn this skill. Truly appreciate you taking the time to share your knowledge.
Charlie