The stock is down about (-40%) over the past year, and the plunge seems to be accelerating. The company’s fundamentals aren’t the best, and its politics are even worse, as Tucker documents. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fr1JdUXLWUo
Arindam
Arindam,
DIS started going downhill on or about 3/8/21 and all the HODLers are asking when do we sell DIS. Don’t worry says the Pied Pipers, we still want you to hang on for dear life for 3 to 5 more years.
However, for Swing Traders, we are making money even if DIS is sliding downhill because the new CEO is running DIS to the ground since 3/8/21, we have made 13 out of 13 successful trades. As a guess, DIS will drive all the way down to around $80.00 for a nice 60 % loss.
The MFWM group dumped a bundle of DIS on or about 11/12/21 and now owns about 35,739 shares at a value of 6 mill and change.
The MFAM group reported decreasing ownership by 0.24% since 2/10/22 and now owns about 46,900 shares.
Quill
1 Like
Quill,
Got my trading systems program up and running again and did a backtest on DIS. On a 2-year chart with weekly bars --which is what ‘investors’, as opposed to ‘traders’, should be using-- the lookback high was about $197.16 on about 03/12/21, and it’s been downhill for the stock since then. Them who prefer to B&H have lost serious money. So, what might a bit of judicious, disciplined trading have offered instead?
If test covers the previous 500 trading days, then the B&Her would have bought on 4/30/20 at 108.15 and would be showing a profit of 9.4%, which is acceptable. But he/she would have watched the value of their position climb to gain of 82.3% and then watched --in dismay and disbelief-- as “the market” took most of that paper profit back. I don’t know about you or most people, but I’d find that disheartening, though that sort of fluctuation merely underscores that need to “time the market”, which isn’t as easily done as saying there’s a need to do so.
The debate on whether stock prices are random or not has been settled by Mandelbrot. (Spoiler alert: the “random walk” theory is nonsense, because stock prices don’t distribute “normally”.) Within the seeming chaos of the market’s daily/weekly/monthly up’s and down’s, there do exist tradable runs that can be captured by them looking for them. Said another way, there are better times to be buying, and there are times one should be selling. Right now, we’re in a late-stage, “topping” market that’s making more lower lows than higher highs. In short, it’s time to be taking money off the table, which is what the institutionals have been doing for the last three quarters as the Leftists and their anti-capitalist policies continue to trash the economy.
So, over that same period of 500 trading days, how might a systems trader have fared? In truth, not very well. Out of a basket of the 38 trading systems installed as the default in the program I’m using, only 14 of them beat B&H in the test period, and some of them were zipping in and out of the market as frequently once a week, which is sheer insanity. But some of the simpler systems traded as infrequently as once every two months and offered 5x the gains of B&H with a right/wrong ratio of 66%, which means the game offered a ‘positive expectancy’ (whose explaining is a post for another time).
Here’s the hypothetical trading log when positions are entered/exited the day following the signal and trailed with Wm O’Neil’s suggested, 8% cut-loss stop.
Buy Date Buy Price Sell Date Sell Price Return
05/08/20 109.16 05/20/20 119.92 9.86%
06/15/20 117.08 07/14/20 118.66 1.35%
07/31/20 116.94 08/19/20 127.77 9.26%
09/23/20 123.28 11/12/20 135.52 9.93%
01/21/21 171.28 02/17/21 186.44 8.85%
03/26/21 185.92 06/29/21 173.93 -6.45%
07/09/21 177.04 07/19/21 172.95 -2.31%
07/21/21 176.89 09/13/21 184.98 4.57%
09/23/21 176.25 11/09/21 175.11 -0.65%
12/03/21 146.22 01/05/22 155.19 6.13%
01/25/22 136.51 02/14/22 150.85 10.50%
03/16/22 138.14 03/31/22 137.16 -0.71%
What should be noted is that losses were kept small simply by exiting the position when price declines said the position should be exited. How best that is done is up to each investor to decide for her or himself. But it’s easy to show the benefits of doing so, as opposed to Holding-and-Hoping on the basis of “strong convictions”. Faith-based investing might be pious. But it isn’t rational or profitable.
1 Like
Arindam,
In the future, when creating columns of data, please do the following so it looks neat.
at the top of the pile add < > and insert pre in 'tween the carrots.
Buy Date Buy Price Sell Date Sell Price Return
05/08/20 109.16 05/20/20 119.92 9.86%
06/15/20 117.08 07/14/20 118.66 1.35%
07/31/20 116.94 08/19/20 127.77 9.26%
09/23/20 123.28 11/12/20 135.52 9.93%
01/21/21 171.28 02/17/21 186.44 8.85%
03/26/21 185.92 06/29/21 173.93 -6.45%
07/09/21 177.04 07/19/21 172.95 -2.31%
07/21/21 176.89 09/13/21 184.98 4.57%
09/23/21 176.25 11/09/21 175.11 -0.65%
12/03/21 146.22 01/05/22 155.19 6.13%
01/25/22 136.51 02/14/22 150.85 10.50%
03/16/22 138.14 03/31/22 137.16 -0.71%
at the bottom add < > and insert /pre in 'tween the carrots.
Quill,
Thanks for the formatting tip.