It is never too late to learn new things

Investment Analysis Clubs Where Angels Fear to Tread
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The history of rate hikes, if you are into history, shows that once the Fed gets half way into their hikes, you want to go long tech. That’s pretty much proven once again to have been the correct move.

So once the Fed states they are raising rates, out of tech, once they are well into their rate hikes, get back into tech. That’s what I found in my research, that’s pretty much what I followed, and that’s been once again been the correct move over the past year or so. Pretty simple and proven game plan.

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130

The “buy high and sell low” approach continues without really taking time to learn some lessons from the post-pandemic years.

  1. Today we are in a completely different macro environment that needs to be tracked, understood and factored into one’s portfolio holdings.
  2. That means investing from one quarterly report to another is likely to cause the above mentioned “buy high and sell low” effect.
  3. Going for the big win with a 20% holding in a small cap stock that operates in a highly cyclical and high capex industry i.e. semiconductors.:man_facepalming:t4:
  4. #3 was almost solely because one is looking for the next NVDA before it becomes the next NVDA.
  5. Inability to keep the investing thesis simple without going down deep, deep rabbit holes on silicon wafers, minutia about EV power technology and word-parsing of statements by every single member of the management team.

Last month, a four-letter stock ticker that starts with “A” was the darling stock. Today, it is hated because it delivered a so called bad earnings report.

Let’s see what the sentiment is about the other four-letter stock ticker that starts with “T”. I predict another exodus without truly understanding the market, the product cycle and industrial dynamics.

It is still never too late to learn new things…

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131

Waiting for this on TTD and GLBE, too.
Still find it interesting those stocks were picked up largely on Saul board after i exited.

You could argue i was early on TTD, exiting at $27 or so, split adjusted. But i think we see upper $30s again, and I sold in Jan 2020, close to 4 years ago. If i buy again in $30s, will i really have missed much? Nope.

Same w GLBE, that i was lucky to ride into Nov/Dec 2021, before the bull market music stopped. I sold for much higher than stock is today, but the macro environment is different now, and so my idea of a good valuation has changed accordingly.

NVDA…i messed up there. I knew about AI, but didnt see the killer app that Generative AI would be this year. I think stock hit $112 or so, and I had a $108 entry target, at 2022 lows. Granted, would I have held thru $400? Have you met me? I would have sold in the $200s at best. Still, i missed out. But i am not chasing it now.

Same w TSLA. Not chasing up in the nosebleed sections. Not w this macro backdrop.

Nov and Dec might be nutso. Will see. I expect drops and pops before an OMG Capitulation type drop.

Dreamer

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132

One thing I have learned…, no, one thing I have come to believe, is that “IT” is the bond market, Stupid. Bonds are investing, stocks is speculating. WIsdom from the '30’s. The bond vigilantes will ultimately win out. Yields are getting pretty high for the 10 to 30 years, 5% or so. Lots of financial institutions have long term bonds on their books for a lot lower rate of return for them. Ugh. Stock market still cannot find a direction. Pressure building up for a move. Of course I am positioned for it to break downwards. Lots of people out there (as always) displaying the yellow flags. Middle East out of control. U.S. is digging into the hall closet to find another $100 billion. No, closet empty. Use the trap door down to the printing press in the cellar (long ago replaced by digital dollars created on an old laptop).

Here is some gloom and doom to prepare you for the Friday Frolics (Follies) in the market: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sixGjiYSxAk

Beautiful day here. Kicking it on the high intensity and dead hangs and core, and demolishing the records on pushups. Probably gotta step back from doing the pushups while wearing the 25 pound pack pack. Shoulder joints have a lot of mileage on them.

KC

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133

The aches around joints and tendons has ramped up the past couple years for me.
I am having to punch my ego in the face and just take it easy on certain things for a couple weeks until things calm down and/or retiring certain exercises semi-permanently.

Example: barbell bench press. I started ramping this up again earlier in the year, and was quickly closing in on my all-time record for reps at 225 (set in mid 20’s, and I was 50 at the time) so I was happy with myself, and looked forward to “chest day” for that reason. Maybe I didn’t warm up my shoulder enough, or maybe it was just too much strain period, but in my last all-out attempt at reps at that weight, I felt the shoulder complain. Then shoulder hurt for a few days and every light attempt at barbell bench had the same pain.

I typically like to follow athleanx.com as he really stresses form and how to avoid injury, and shoulder impingement is one of those things. I also like Mike from Renaissance Periodization bc he is funny and keeps it real, but it was interesting to hear him try and counteract the concerns with shoulder impingement:

My personal observations? Age and individuality matter. Also, I am not on steroids, TRT, or HGH…so I need to recover naturally, although I do use supplements and vitamins and creatine.

Watching a Mike video convinced me to do side lateral raises with my thumbs parallel or pointed down. Athleanx discourages this…tells you to lean forward a bit and then have thumbs up, to keep shoulder from being internally rotated while lifting, which can cause impingement. Sure enough, my shoulders started to hurt again. In fairness, Mike also says “hey - if your shoulder hurts, don’t do these anymore” so sometimes what is actually being said doesn’t align with the click-bait headlines of the videos.

So for chest, I do a slight incline with dumbbells, and have given up flat barbell bench. Exception is I may start using underhand grip on barbell, which I often do on the dumbbell. This almost completely takes the shoulder pain out of the equation and focuses more on chest, although you may have to do lower weights, which is fine and better for joints anyway. Athleanx turned me on to the underhand bench grip idea. I am also trying to do more dumbbell chest pullovers, and I will do machine flys or cable flys. I was doing dips, and probably will try to keep doing them, but think they may also, unfortunately, be part of the occasional shoulder impingement pain.

Then I was getting tendinitis in elbow, mainly when my forearm pronates. This flares up on bicep day, so I have started to move to a less-is-more approach on biceps, doing 3 sets of underhand grip chin-ups. This is how many of those gymnasts get such huge arms anyway. That and I started doing standing ezcurl bar sets and that has been less pressure on the inner elbow, at least for me.

Finally, I have a wimpy achilles tendon in one foot. Keeping me from sprinting. So still walking a lot, and was trying to do some elliptical machine. Winter coming, so probably elliptical for a while. Hopefully I can do sprints again in late spring 24.

Sounds like a lot of problems, but point is they are all very manageable and avoidable (for now) once I put my ego in check and allowed myself to do an alternatives, or just skip that muscle area for an extra week.

Got about 12 pounds to lose by EOY, and I will likely be in best shape of my life at 51. Now if my port would just shape up!!!

Dreamer

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