Three weeks ago, in my post called “Stock Market Thoughts”, http://discussion.fool.com/stock-market-thoughts-31253459.aspx I wrote:
I think most of my stocks have now bottomed and are finished with this ridiculousness.
I expressed my reasons for thinking so.
Now, three weeks later, it’s hard to remember how unlikely that seemed at the time. The growth stocks like ours had been pounded for 8 or 9 weeks in a row and it seemed like it would never end. It was like being in a nightmare from which you couldn’t wake up. Any time you had a hope it was quickly crushed. Someone on this board expressed the fear that he’d never recover. One very intelligent poster wrote The bottom hasn’t been hit., and gave a list of reasons why.
Well, three weeks later, it’s pretty evident that it was at least a short term bottom.
Here’s a quick summary of the stocks I mentioned then, in alphabetical order:
AFOP - I said it bottomed 3 months previously at $11.50 and closed that Friday at $18.37. It’s now at $21.41.
AMBA - I said it hit bottom the week before at $22.50 and was currently at $24.05. It’s now at $26.60.
BOFI - had bottomed at $73.50 and was currently at $75.25. It’s now at $79.80.
CALL - Closed at $15.07 that week. I didn’t call a bottom in CALL but said strongly that I didn’t see lots of downside. It’s down another dollar at $13.98.
CELG - I wrote: CELG bottomed 6 weeks ago and has moved up a little every week since. Well it’s up each week since then too.
CSGP - I said it seemed like it was making a bottom at $155-$154. It’s now at $169.50.
HZNP - was at $12.88. I didn’t call a bottom, but it’s now at $14.48
JCOM and KRED - I said they hadn’t sold off particularly and I didn’t say anything about a bottom on either. JCOM is up since then and KRED is down.
MTZ - I said they didn’t have much of a sell-off, but they since pre-announced bad results and I sold out.
P - Had closed as low as $22.20 and closed that week at $23.40. I said I couldn’t be sure if they had bottomed yet, but they are now at $25.60, so I guess they had. I sold out at about $25.10, I think, because of all the new competition.
PFIE - I said it hadn’t sold off much, and that I had been buying to build a position. It closed that week at $3.96. It’s now at $4.15
PSIX - I said it had been trading in a range between $70 and $86 for eleven weeks at that time. Make that 14 weeks.
SCTY - They closed that week at $50.20. I said it was hard to tell if they had bottomed. They closed this week at the same $50.20
SYNA - was at $59.60. I said it just never went down much. It’s now at $67.70
SZYM - had gotten as low as $9.09 and closed the week at $9.20. - It’s now at $10.49
UBNT had gotten as low as $30.50 during the week and was currently $34 and something. It’s now at $37.
WAB had never really sold off. It was a $74.40 when I wrote. It’s a $79.90 now.
Z was at 106, and now its at $118.
It seems that I really did hit it on the nose. As I have said, it was good luck, as there were other times I thought the decline was irrational and out of proportion, but this was the only time I thought it was the bottom strongly enough to actually call a bottom.
Saul