Please, please, PLEASE, don’t expect me to accurately call tops and bottoms for our stocks the way this turned out. Honestly, usually I don’t even pay attention. It was just that five descents of my portfolio ended at the same spot and it just struck me that that couldn’t just be a coincidence, and I was just calling it out because many people were feeling that our stocks had been going down and down and down (because the down days affect our emotions so much more than the up days). And I promise, I never dreamt my portfolio would rise 20% in the 5 trading days after I said that we had hit bottom. Nobody can call things like that with any accuracy over the long term.
And as for Upstart rising 65.5% in the same five days after I loaded up on it, it often doesn’t work that way:
Look, I bought a bunch of Crowdstrike at about $65 a little over two years ago, and shortly afterwards it turned tail and about 7 or 8 months later it hit $33 in the Covid panic last March. And I was in shock like everyone else and didn’t buy at the bottom (but I did buy a huge amount at about $49, and it’s still my largest position at $204).
Or consider Snowflake. I bought a bunch at about $395 after a glorious earnings report, and some months later Snowflake eventually got down about $190 a week ago, down over 50% from that big buy. (It’s now at $230 after it hit bottom along with the rest).
So what’s the message? It’s that you shouldn’t just buy something blindly because I bought it, but research it for yourself, because I make plenty of mistakes too (like everyone else).