Please, Please, PLEASE!!!

Please, please, PLEASE, don’t expect me to accurately call tops and bottoms for our stocks the way this turned out. Honestly, usually I don’t even pay attention. It was just that five descents of my portfolio ended at the same spot and it just struck me that that couldn’t just be a coincidence, and I was just calling it out because many people were feeling that our stocks had been going down and down and down (because the down days affect our emotions so much more than the up days). And I promise, I never dreamt my portfolio would rise 20% in the 5 trading days after I said that we had hit bottom. Nobody can call things like that with any accuracy over the long term.

And as for Upstart rising 65.5% in the same five days after I loaded up on it, it often doesn’t work that way:

Look, I bought a bunch of Crowdstrike at about $65 a little over two years ago, and shortly afterwards it turned tail and about 7 or 8 months later it hit $33 in the Covid panic last March. And I was in shock like everyone else and didn’t buy at the bottom (but I did buy a huge amount at about $49, and it’s still my largest position at $204).

Or consider Snowflake. I bought a bunch at about $395 after a glorious earnings report, and some months later Snowflake eventually got down about $190 a week ago, down over 50% from that big buy. (It’s now at $230 after it hit bottom along with the rest).

So what’s the message? It’s that you shouldn’t just buy something blindly because I bought it, but research it for yourself, because I make plenty of mistakes too (like everyone else).




Luv you Saul, great info. And my post is hilariously listed just before yours.

Things I have learned on this board…

  • never buy just because someone else did
  • understand your companies and buy to your level of conviction

I have not bought anything just because you posted about it, but I have bought because many people debated about it…and that is the strength of this board for me.


As the old saying goes, “it’s not timing the market but time IN the market.”

I was happy to be able to pick up SNOW recently as low as 198 bucks a share, UPST as low as 85 bucks a share, DDOG at 78 bucks a share, and FUBO at 18 bucks a share.

Like most folks, I always try to dollar cost average my way into positons and patiently wait for the dips to pick up extra shares when I can. Besides that I try to weather the annual downturns in growth stocks with a Zen attitude, the more I’ve seen it, the less it bothers me.

On the flip side, when the multiples expand too quickly or my son’s teenage friends are getting rich quick off Gamestop or Bitcoin, then I start to feel uneasy in a different way.