Japan & nuclear reactors

It’s been 10 years.

Japan to reopen up to 9 nuclear power plants
www.teletrader.com/japan-to-reopen-up-to-9-nuclear-power-pla…
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated on Thursday that Japan will increase its use of nuclear power plants this winter in order to ensure energy security. He said he instructed the Ministry of Energy to activate up to nine plants in the winter, producing around 10% of Japan’s total electricity, according to Asahi Shimbun.

In addition, Japan should “secure an additional 10 units of thermal power generation” to provide a stable energy supply at the time of peak consumption during the heating season. “It is the government’s responsibility to take every possible measure, and we will do our utmost to ensure a stable supply of electricity not only this winter but also in the future,” Kishida said at a press conference.

DB2

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He said he instructed the Ministry of Energy to activate up to nine plants in the winter, producing around 10% of Japan’s total electricity, according to Asahi Shimbun.


There seem to be different interpretations of what Kishida specifically meant in his speech. Right now, there are 10 power reactors authorized for operation in Japan. Did he mean 9 of those 10 plants need to be in working this winter? Or did he mean that 9 plants that are currently not cleared for operation need to be activated?

I would like it to be the later, but am afraid he really meant the former. Therefore, this isn’t such big news.

https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Kishida-calls-fo…

From World Nuclear News…
Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has called for up to nine of the ten reactors that have already been restarted to be in operation over the winter to avoid electricity shortages. There are currently five reactors in operation in the country.

“There are concerns about the supply and demand of energy this winter,” Kishida said at a press conference on 14 July. “At any rate, we need to prevent such a situation. Therefore, I have told the Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry that as many nuclear power plants as possible - up to nine - this winter will be put into operation to secure about 10% of Japan’s total electricity consumption.”


Last year, nuclear produced 6% of the electricity in Japan. Getting to the stated 10% share will be impossible unless more than 10 plants are authorized to run. So maybe they do plan on increasing the operable fleet. Japan’s court system has a way of shutting down nuclear plants because some judge doesn’t like nuclear power. So, most likely, the Japanese will just keep burning natural gas, coal and oil for most of the electricity.

  • Pete

Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has called for up to nine of the ten reactors that have already been restarted to be in operation over the winter to avoid electricity shortages. There are currently five reactors in operation in the country.

Last year, nuclear produced 6% of the electricity in Japan. Getting to the stated 10% share will be impossible unless more than 10 plants are authorized to run.

Going from a current five in operation up to nine would be an 80% increase.

6% x 1.8 = 10.8%

That may be the goal.

DB2

Last year, nuclear produced 6% of the electricity in Japan. Getting to the stated 10% share will be impossible unless more than 10 plants are authorized to run.

Going from a current five in operation up to nine would be an 80% increase.
6% x 1.8 = 10.8%

You are assuming they ran 5 plants in 2021. In reality, it was more like 7 or 8.

From the BP electricity generation by source page…
(page 51 of the document)
https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/c…

Nuclear produced 61.2 TWh in 2021. Total generation was 1019.7 TWh. 61.2 / 1019.7 = .060
Dividing the 61,200 GWh by 8760 hours in the year gives an average output of 7 GW. That is for a 100% capacity factor. If they had a more realistic capacity factor of 85 to 90%, then they probably had closer to 8 GW in service.

Here is the list of currently operable nuclear plants in Japan

Plant      Capacity (MW)
------    -----------
Genkai-3     1127
Genkai-4     1127
Ikata-3       846
Mihama-3      780
Ohi-3        1127
Ohi-4        1127
Sendai-1      846
Sendai-2      846
Takahama-3    830
Takahama-4    830
---------   ------
Total        9486 MW

Average plant size is 949 MW, which is about the same as the US fleet.

If they ran all 10 plants for a full year at 100% capacity factor, they could make a maximum of 83.1 TWh, which would be 8.1% of the total generation last year. No way can they get to 10%. But the translation does say “around 10%”. I don’t know what Japanese word was used, but they do have some wiggle room. 8% is “around” 10%.

  • Pete

So, most likely, the Japanese will just keep burning natural gas, coal and oil for most of the electricity.

  • Pete

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Japan is adding tremendous renewable energy that will help.

Japan expects renewable energy to account for 36%-38% of the country’s energy mix for power generation in FY 2030-31 – with the 1% introduction of hydrogen/ammonia and 20%-22% of nuclear power – totaling 57%-61% of the non-fossil fuel power supply.

The country also expects the LNG portion to be around 20% in its 2030-31 energy mix, with coal accounting for 19% and oil for 2%, which gives a total of 41% for fossil fuels.

Together with 62 million kl (390 million barrels) of oil equivalent of energy conservation against its business-as-usual scenario, Japan aims to achieve its 46% cut in GHG by FY 2030-31 from the FY 2013-14 level.

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insight…

Jaak

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Together with 62 million kl (390 million barrels) of oil equivalent of energy conservation against its business-as-usual scenario, Japan aims to achieve its 46% cut in GHG by FY 2030-31 from the FY 2013-14 level.

Hey, this is serious stuff. From last year:

The strange truth about Japan’s climate change target
www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-japan-s-climate-change-target…
Japan has just raised its target for reducing carbon emissions from 26% to 46% (by 2030 from 2013 levels). But how was this figure arrived at, environment minister Shinjiro Koizumi was asked? Through a careful analysis of the threat and a realistic assessment of what could be achieved, taking all relevant factors into consideration? Well, er no, according to Koizumi, the number 46 just appeared to him in ‘silhouette’ in a sort of vision.

Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, made the comments in an interview with the TV station TBS last weekend. The interviewer, despite her face mask, was clearly stunned by the revelation that the country’s emission target did not appear to have any scientific basis. She asked the minister to confirm what he had said; and he did…

Prime minister Suga has not commented on his environment minister’s green-tinged epiphany, but he confirmed the 46% pledge at the 40-leader climate summit presided over by US president Joe Biden via Zoom last week.

DB2

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Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, made the comments in an interview with the TV station TBS last weekend. The interviewer, despite her face mask, was clearly stunned by the revelation that the country’s emission target did not appear to have any scientific basis. She asked the minister to confirm what he had said; and he did…

These visions can be expensive.

Japan’s ambitious carbon target sparks bureaucratic panic
www.ft.com/content/90eefa81-94fd-49b7-9687-a3155b8b3ea7
Taishi Sugiyama, research director at the Canon Institute for Global Studies, said the target was only achievable if Japan accepted a big hit to its economy. A 1% reduction in emissions costs about ¥1tn ($9.1bn) a year, he said, so the 20 percentage point reduction would cost ¥20tn.

That would be equivalent to about 3.5% of gross domestic product, implying that the carbon target would soak up much of the improvement in living standards expected for Japan’s low-growth economy by 2030.

DB2

Some news from Japan from last week:

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-pm-call-dev…

TOKYO, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Japan will restart more idled nuclear plants and look at developing next-generation reactors, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said on Wednesday, setting the stage for a major policy shift on nuclear energy a decade after the Fukushima disaster.

The comments from Kishida - who also said the government would look at extending the lifespan of existing reactors - highlight how the Ukraine crisis and soaring energy costs have forced both a change in public opinion and a policy rethink toward nuclear power.

Japan will need a significant amount of nuclear power capacity to meet future climate goals. The announcement of new, next-generation plants is encouraging.

The current fuel mix for the electricity sector is heavily reliant on fossil fuels.

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/energy-st…

  • Pete
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Japan will need a significant amount of nuclear power capacity to meet future climate goals. The announcement of new, next-generation plants is encouraging.

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When will they restart the nuclear plants that have been idled for 10 years?

Will the people allow the restarts after all the failures of the nuclear power industry?

Will the people allow the next generation plants to be built after all the failures of the nuclear power industry?

Plans are great, but there are many safety, economic, and political hurdles ahead.

Jaak

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Some news from France:

High temperatures in river water are reportedly forcing Electricite de France SA (EDF) to cut power generation at some of its nuclear plants. The news is particularly troubling as several European nations struggle to cope with an energy crisis caused by gas cuts made by Russia in retaliation against sanctions placed on it due to the war in Ukraine.

River water is often used in many parts of the world to cool steam condensers at all types of thermal power plants, including at nuclear, coal, and gas-fired units. The water picks up heat as it passes through the condenser and returns to the river. However, regulators often place temperature restrictions on the cooling water to prevent harm to the environment, which could be caused if limits were exceeded.

Extreme heat and the driest July on record in France have caused river temperatures to reach certain thresholds that restrict nuclear plant output at some sites. Bloomberg reported that the Saint-Alban plant will operate “at a minimum of 700 megawatts, compared with a total capacity of about 2,600 megawatts” and that “reductions are also likely at the Tricastin plant, where two units will maintain at least 400 megawatts.” The minimum output limits reported by Bloomberg are presumably intended to maintain grid stability while plants restrict output to keep river water under the maximum permitted discharge temperatures.

https://www.powermag.com/nuclear-power-production-curtailed-…

The French should have built cooling towers for these river side nuclear plants.

Jaak

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