Still my favorite quote, taken from this Board:
You do not beat the market by thinking you are “smarter” than the market. You beat it by understanding what the market never understands as it always either overreacts to FUD or underreacts to those few extreme world changing businesses.
-Tinker
IMO, the best way to know what is ‘True FUD’ or a ‘Truely World Changing Business’ is to follow Saul’s method of closely monitoring relevant information while staying invested. His secret sauce, IMO, is in his nurturing of the similarly focused group of board contributors here.
Since the time I began to follow Saul’s advice and the contributions from everyone here:
| 2018 | +38.9% |
|---|---|
| 2019 | +32.9% |
| 2020 | +203% |
| 2021 | +46.8% |
| 2022 | (-)58.55% |
| 2023 | Month to Date | Year to Date |
|---|---|---|
| January | +14% | +14% |
| February | +6.45% | +21.2% |
| March | +1.55% | +23.13% |
| April | (-)14.5% | +5.28% |
| Allocations as of | 4/30/23 | 3/31/23 | 2/28/23 | 1/31/23 | 12/31/22 | 11/30/22 | 10/30/22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Snowflake | 31.64% | 28.18% | 25.09% | 24.72% | 25.83% | 25.19% | 25.06% |
| Cloudflare | 28.65% | 27.03% | 22.27% | 20.90% | 20.34% | 21.69% | 22.00% |
| Datadog | 7.20% | 13.27% | 14.20% | 16.99% | 18.19% | 14.29% | 15.60% |
| MongoDB | 0% | 0% | 15.55% | 16.92% | 8.85% | 6.72% | 7.08% |
| Monday.com | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.49% | 4.72% | 4.82% |
| Tesla | 31.07% | 30.32% | 22.90% | 20.48% | |||
| Crowdstrike | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.74% | 10.43% | 11.74% |
| Zscaler | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.84% | 2.25% | 2.14% |
| SentinelOne | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.03% | ||
| Bill | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.70% | 14.68% | 11.56% |
| Intellia | 1.45% | 1.19% |
This portfolio is what is in my family’s non-taxable Roth and Rollover IRAs only. It contains the bulk of what we’ll live on during retirement. We have not added any money to these accounts for many years. To buy something I’ve sold something else. I don’t trade options or use any leverage. I stay fully invested at all times and keep less than 1% in cash.
This month I made two Investing Decisions:
4/26/23
Sold 20% of Datadog after the 14% share price bump back up today to add 11% to Tesla position at $155 ( prior cost basis being $130).
I chose to take the money from Datadog because, although not at all an immediate concern, I see Datadog the most likely among what I own to be looking at more competition, as As Good solutions (being built on top of Snowflake, utilizing the new highly efficient LLM as a business model) are now inevitable IMO.
Tesla is off topic-no responses please)
(I see Tesla doing what they should be doing in this economic down-turn, when all other OEMs are slowing production due to losing money on every EV sold, Tesla, making near $7k per car-after price cuts, is further ramping up Op Ex spend to a massive ~$8B this next year, lowering prices further and taking gen more market-share.
This is not your typical widget making company. Each sale increases data collected to then be leveraged by their superior AI and robotics engines for increasing future profits.
Their doing something similar in multiple markets. Mr Market will be forced to factor in Stationary storage (growing much faster than cars albeit from a smaller base) when Tesla begins to report on Revenue from MegaPacks in this 4th Quarter.
I have Tesla operating margin over all segments of the company at about 12%, almost double the average of 6.33% for global auto companies. Tesla’s Operating Margin in 2022 was above 15% in 2023Q1 (their currently ramping two Giga-Factories). I add this last bit here because I reported Op Margins egregiously high in a past post here🥴.)
4/28/23
I sold 37% of my Datadog to buy 19% more Cloudflare, when Cloudflare dropped 27% to $44/share.
I agree that Cloudflare CEO, Prince was caught swimming naked when the (Macro) tide went out on his Sales team. I like everything else about their report. And I believe him when he shows humility.
I sold Datadog to get the money for the same reason I gave when I added to Tesla on Tesla’s share price drop, earlier this month.
MongoDB remains on my watch list; although, I’m still waiting for a sharp move in a positive direction in both revenue growth and further still in profitability before adding back.
Best
Jason