My favorite quote, recently remembered, taken from this Board:
You do not beat the market by thinking you are “smarter” than the market. You beat it by understanding what the market never understands as it always either overreacts to FUD or underreacts to those few extreme world changing businesses.
-Tinker
IMO, the best way to know what is ‘True FUD’ or a ‘Truely World Changing Business’ is to follow Saul’s method of closely monitoring relevant information while staying invested. His secret sauce, IMO, is in his nurturing of the similarly focused group of board contributors here.
Since the time I began to follow Saul’s advice and the contributions from everyone here:
| 2018 | +38.9% |
|---|---|
| 2019 | +32.9% |
| 2020 | +203% |
| 2021 | +46.8% |
| 2022 | (-)58.55% |
| 2023 | Month to Date | Year to Date |
|---|---|---|
| January | +14% | +14% |
| February | +6.45% | +21.2% |
| March | +1.55% | +23.13% |
| Allocations as of | 3/31/23 | 2/28/23 | 1/31/23 | 12/31/22 | 11/30/22 | 10/30/22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Snowflake | 28.18% | 25.09% | 24.72% | 25.83% | 25.19% | 25.06% |
| Cloudflare | 27.03% | 22.27% | 20.90% | 20.34% | 21.69% | 22.00% |
| Datadog | 13.27% | 14.20% | 16.99% | 18.19% | 14.29% | 15.60% |
| MongoDB | 0% | 15.55% | 16.92% | 8.85% | 6.72% | 7.08% |
| Monday.com | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.49% | 4.72% | 4.82% |
| Tesla | 30.32% | 22.90% | 20.48% | |||
| Crowdstrike | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.74% | 10.43% | 11.74% |
| Zscaler | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.84% | 2.25% | 2.14% |
| SentinelOne | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.03% | ||
| Bill | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.70% | 14.68% | 11.56% |
| Intellia | 1.19% |
This portfolio is what is in my family’s non-taxable Roth and Rollover IRAs only. It contains the bulk of what we’ll live on during retirement. We have not added any money to these accounts for many years. To buy something I’ve sold something else. I don’t trade options or use any leverage. I stay fully invested at all times and keep less than 1% in cash.
This month I made two Investing Decisions:
3/3/23
What I did: I trimmed Snowflake after earnings to pick up a lookysee position in Intellia (INTL). Intellia has been my favorite CRISPR company since they went public in 2016. They’re founder is from the Berkeley group that lost litigation to Harvard for the sole rights to some of the foundational parts of the technology around CRISPR; yet, this Intellia Founder did share in the Nobel Prize for her successes in this area.
The reason I took a look and see position, In this 3B market Cap development stage company, is because IMO, although admittedly this is speculative as an investment, Management has so far made the most of this world changing technology. They’ve partnered where appropriate, gone after large areas of the market where no one else is going, and repeatedly delivered incredible results, IMO.
3/8/23
What I did: After MongoDB released earning and before their Conference Call, I sold all of my ~15% position. I added the $ to TSLA, NET, and SNOW, evening out their relative sizes.
Why I did it: Most here got out of MDB after Q2. I held into their follow up conferences and argued here why I believed my thesis remained intact.
Mongo’s Q3 increased my confidence, with their markedly improved top and moreso with their bottom line numbers.
The weakness Mongo showed this Quarter was par for the course, as I’ve seen during the four+ years I’ve been following them. However, maybe because I don’t look at any company’s’ guidance, ever, and when I let macro into my investing decisions, I’m unapologeticly optimistic; but, when MDB reported revenue growth below 40%, only then did I know that revenue growth of below 40% was in deed a red line for me. I got out at $212/share.
MongoDB remains on my watch list; although, I plan to wait for a sharp move in a positive direction in both revenue growth and profitability before adding back.
Best
Jason