Jason’s January ‘23 Investing Decisions

Since the time I began to follow Saul’s advice and the contributions from everyone here:

2018 +38.9%
2019 +32.9%
2020 +203%
2021 +46.8%
2022 (-)58.55%
2023 Month to Date Year to Date
January +14% +14%
Allocations as of 1/31/23 12/31/22 11/30/22 10/30/22
Snowflake 24.72% 25.83% 25.19% 25.06%
Cloudflare 20.90% 20.34% 21.69% 22.00%
Datadog 16.99% 18.19% 14.29% 15.60%
MongoDB 16.92% 8.85% 6.72% 7.08%
Monday.com 0% 5.49% 4.72% 4.82%
Tesla 20.48%
Crowdstrike 0% 4.74% 10.43% 11.74%
Zscaler 0% 1.84% 2.25% 2.14%
SentinelOne 0% 0.03%
Bill 0% 14.70% 14.68% 11.56%

This portfolio is what is in our non-taxable Roth and Rollover IRAs only. We have not added any money to these accounts for many years. To buy something I’ve sold something else. I don’t trade options or use any leverage. I stay fully invested at all times and keep less than 1% in cash.

This months Investing Decisions: Abreviated due to rules of this Board about discussing Tesla.

And 1/11/23
Sold Monday, Zscaler, Crowdstrike, and Bill and added all this to MongoDB, making Mongo a 17% position, and taking a near full position in Tesla, making it a 17% position with only 5 positions.

Why I did it:

MongoDB (now a Leader in Translytical Data Platforms) enables software engineers to work with Data Scientists to then take Enterprise specific data and build onto large Ai models, a layer that could be described as an AGI, that can then produce actionable choices. A layer of the kind that the Open AI CEO recently said, ‘will transform entire industries in the next 2-3 years’.

Summarizing my Purchase decision of Tesla:

Why I did it: This will be brief and not repeated, respecting the rules of Saul’s Board.

Tesla sales of Model Y leaped up to #6, up +32.5% YoY, placing it for the first time into the Top 10 in auto sales in the US.

(Model 3, also markedly up, is now ranked 13th of all cars sold in the US)

This is not just among EVs. This is among all cars.

All other top ten Cars sold were down YoY, on average (-)10.5%!

Globally Tesla is now markedly overtaking all other automakers in every way I see value.

Yet share price of Tesla was down 75% since November ‘21.

Early this January, Tesla pre-announced macro-related slowdown in growth for cars sold, down to +40% YoY. This is being reported add nauseam, attributed by the media as the result of competition. In the overall car market, where there was negative growth of 9% YoY. This seems to be cause for many to assume there will be a correlation with smaller margins. But I believe, their will be continued margin expansion (Tesla Operating Margin is admittedly ‘only’ 29% at this time).

Tesla factories being robots that make Tesla cars (more robots)- robots making robots is an exponential technology. Exponential technologies benefit from massive margin expansion capabilities with diminishing marginal costs. Margins explode up, when the number of sales hit critical mass.

This was the mother of all FUD storms. I had to act. All last month positions, that were in my portfolio, are up around 10-20% today. My Cost bases for my Tesla purchases is up 50% today.

Make of this what you will. Feel free to email me if you have questions, but, please don’t post anything here about Tesla. I included it for transparency. As always, I have no intention of changing any position allocations in the foreseeable future. When I take more than a small position, This means I’m long that position.