WillO2028 March Portfolio Summary

Since the time I began to try to follow Saul’s advice and listen to the contributions from everyone here:

Year % Change
2018 +38.9%
2019 +32.9%
2020 +203%
2021 +46.8%
2022 (-)58.55%
2023 +66.27%
2024 Month to Date Year to Date
January (-)4.31% (-)4.31%
February 16.32% 11.3%
March (-)3.37% 7.55%
3/31/24 2/29/24 1/31/24 12/29/23 11/30 10/31/23 9/30/23 8/31/23 7/31/23 6/30/23 5/31/23
Tesla 35.38% 34.35% 31.93% 33.61% 34.84% 33.35% 31.46% 31.63% 35.02% 33.69% 33.11%
Nvidia 28.41% 24.04% 21.75% 16.75% 13.58% 14.26% 6.84%
Pure Storage 13.68% 12.80% 11.31% 9.65% 8.7% 10.64% 10.08% 8.97%
Snowflake 18.29 13.73% 14.11% 18.84% 19.07% 20.3% 19.21% 14.95% 20.01% 15.99% 16.03%
Cloudflare 4.26% 13.77% 12.85% 12.95% 12.88% 12.59% 12.58% 17.93% 19.26% 19.80% 33.8%
Samsara’s 0% 1.32% 8.06% 8.82% 10.93% 8.87% 9.69% 8.38%
Crowdstrike 0% 5.26% 9.98% 14.11% 13.34%
Zscaler 0% 4.89%
Monday 0% 8.15% 7.89% 14.26% 16.16%
Datadog 0%
MongoDB
Cash 0% 0% 0% 3.7% 2.42%

The following is not investment advice, it’s just my own way of thinking about what I’ve learned here and from Saul’s Knowledge Base.

I’m not going to guess when someone else is acting greedy or fearful and timing when that might happen is even more beyond my pay grade. So, I avoid consideration of standard and even relative valuation practices, because I’m investing into companies leading, with disruptive technologies.

Winners tend to keep winning (until they themselves are disrupted, I watch rates of adoption, moats and TAMs very closely) and proper risk management, when adjusting for ‘loss aversion’, includes both risks that lead to loss and loss of ‘up-side’ gains if not invested (this is what I’m talking about when I say I’m just trying to be less wrong.).

From what I’ve gathered, the retail investor is more likely to compound gains when a long term horizon is given patience.

I find these recent blog posts by Saul priceless.

Saul,

…”you got that because you rode your winners,…

….compounded gains are the ninth wonder of the world, even more than all the others, and look at what your gains are, you will realize what you are missing out on, the opportunity cost of what you are doing. Sure the market will head down at some point but you are guessing when.

Lately I’ve felt lucky for my particular circumstances, I still take home a steady paycheck from doing what I love to do. This puts me into a head space that allows me to keep my money in this volatile market. The concentration of my portfolio is what I learned to do, as a defensive move, from Saul (I believe he’s only ever gone to less than six companies except when the overall market was falling and he’d added to his higher conviction positions. A year ago January, as a defensive move, I condensed down to 3 companies when overall prices were still dropping and I felt that AI was going to change so much.

Someone recently posted that it would be counterproductive to remain invested during a period of time when a company is not expected to grow share price.

My reply was…

Sell if you aware of any information that leads you to believe that the company has become less amazing? Otherwise, concentrate around your highest conviction positions and buy on any FUD! (So maybe I’ve learned something from Saul🥳?)

This portfolio is what is in my family’s non-taxable Roth and Rollover IRAs only. It contains the bulk of what we’ll live on during retirement. We have not added any money to these accounts for many years. To buy something I’ve sold something else. I don’t trade options or use any leverage. I stay fully invested at all times and keep, on average, less than 1% in cash.

March, 2024

3/8/24

What I did:

I sold the remaining 1.32% position in Samsara and ~70% of my position in Cloudflare to add ~50% back to Snowflake and level up Tesla, adding ~14%, after each experiencing further share price declines. I had just a little bit left to add to Pure Storage as PSTG melted up.

Why I did it:

I wrote here, I’d do as much when I sold that chunk of Snowflake last month. Since the Snowflake Q4 Conference Call, I’ve had time to listen to a few interviews with the new CEO, Sridhar Ramaswamy. After watching this one, https://youtu.be/ALTNqy0sEkg?si=NN38vTsoGo54akk3, where he states at ~21minute mark and near the end that Snowflake will be like the iOS platform for AI utilizing Enterprise Data, “it just works”, and provide deep ROI for every Enterprise by the end of this year. Remember LLMs today are prone to hallucinate and are in no way governed in a way that is seamlessly fine tuned with an Enterprises data. He outlines what it takes to rule this out, allowing Enterprise use of LLMs.

With the reports of Nvidia solving the compute constraint, bottle neck, holding back Tesla, Tesla’s very recent advances with their Full Self Driving and the humanoid robot kit have been mind blowing. With that, I don’t believe anyone else has reported the success with batteries as well as in this videohttps://youtu.be/FB2JKr3LsPI?si=s7cS7JnSmaOln0I0 I’m wishing I could buy more on this dip in share price; but I’m far too overweight as it is.

Thanks to you forever Saul!

Best to ya’ll,

Jason

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