Since the time I began to try to follow Saul’s advice and listen to the contributions from everyone here:
| Year | % Change |
|---|---|
| 2018 | +38.9% |
| 2019 | +32.9% |
| 2020 | +203% |
| 2021 | +46.8% |
| 2022 | (-)58.55% |
Starting with $100 at beginning of 2018- end of 2018 = 138.9%.
For 2019 I started with 138.9 and multiplied that by (32.9%) = 184.6%, giving me $184.60 at end of 2019. 184.6 (203%) = 559.3% at end of 2020. 559.3 (46.6%) = 820% after four years, at end of 2021. 820 (-58.55%) = 339.89% after 5 years; Increase what I had at the end of 2022. 340 by 46.8% = 499% after 5 yrs and 8 months of this year.
| 2023 | Month to Date | Year to Date |
|---|---|---|
| January | +14% | +14% |
| February | +6.45% | +21.2% |
| March | +1.55% | +23.13% |
| April | (-)14.5% | +5.28% |
| May | +31.5% | +38.4% |
| June | +7.3% | +48.5% |
| July | +4.4% | +54.5% |
| August | (-)5% | +46.8% |
| September | (-)2.5% | +43.1% |
| October | (-)10.1% | +28.65% |
| November | +20.5% | 55% |
I spend ~98% of my (part)time making sure I’m invested in what I consider the very Highest Quality Businesses and ~2% of my time making sure Fear Uncertainty and Doubt is not really about anything fundamental to the success of these companies. If I find unwarranted FUD around a company that satisfies all my modifications to the High Quality Business strategy, I invest.
When I refer to my level of confidence, I’m referring to what allocation they have in my portfolio. My confidence is simply a gut check on **how able I feel when I am assessing **each company’s ability to efficiently ride the wave of customers adoption for what they’re selling.
I like to invest in companies that are selling the how when leveraging disruptive technologies. I only invest into the leaders of the largest markets (TAMs or SAMs). Each company in my portfolio sells what is necessary for their customers to stay competitive, often like a tax collector on every business in the world.
Cloud, AI, robotics - each of them are massively disruptive exponential technologies. The companies in my portfolio are each in their own way enabling their customers to leverage 1, 2, or all three. Their customers are paying a tax of a sort to stay competitive in their own respective markets. But, each of those companies in my portfolio are also leveraging exponential disruptive technologies with incredible business models.
I believe the largest companies, those doing this stacking of exponentials, are now Called the Magnificent 7. Trillion is the new Billion
. I own two of them, Tesla and Nvidia. As large as they are, the competitive advantages of being thus positioned might just explain why I believe they’ll have the best growth endurance of any companies in history. Presently, I expect the others in my current portfolio will be growing to be behemoths as well, with similarly great growth endurance.
Remember, I have extremely high risk tolerance and what seems reasonable for me may not be reasonable for you.
| 11/30 | 10/31/23 | 9/30/23 | 8/31/23 | 7/31/23 | 6/30/23 | 5/31/23 | 4/30/23 | 3/31/23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla | 34.84% | 33.35% | 31.46% | 31.63% | 35.02% | 33.69% | 33.11% | 31.07% | 30.32% |
| Snowflake | 19.07% | 20.3% | 19.21% | 14.95% | 20.01% | 15.99% | 16.03% | 31.64% | 28.18% |
| Cloudflare | 12.88% | 12.59% | 12.58% | 17.93% | 19.26% | 19.80% | 33.8% | 28.65% | 27.03% |
| Pure Storage | 8.7% | 10.64% | 10.08% | 8.97% | |||||
| Samsara’s | 10.93% | 8.87% | 9.69% | 8.38% | |||||
| Nvidia | 13.58% | 14.26% | 6.84% | ||||||
| Crowdstrike | 0% | 5.26% | 9.98% | 14.11% | 13.34% | ||||
| Zscaler | 0% | 4.89% | |||||||
| Monday | 0% | 8.15% | 7.89% | 14.26% | 16.16% | ||||
| Datadog | 0% | 7.20% | 13.27% | ||||||
| MongoDB | 0% | ||||||||
| Cash | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.7% | 2.42% |
This portfolio is what is in my family’s non-taxable Roth and Rollover IRAs only. It contains the bulk of what we’ll live on during retirement. We have not added any money to these accounts for many years. To buy something I’ve sold something else. I don’t trade options or use any leverage. I stay fully invested at all times and keep, on average, less than 1% in cash.
November
11/8/23
I sold 10% of a 12% position in Cloudflare. If I had not already cut my position in Cloudflare by more than half this year, I’d have sold more. I added it to Samsara.
4 day outage for Cloudflare!, Muji
Enterprise users of their SSE and SASE found themselves unable to connect to their internal systems and apps for those 2 days! And enterprise users of Workers were out for a day. (Including Vercel in its Edge Functions, who were also hit by the KV issue the day before.)
Cloudflare, of course, has an action plan and will learn from this, but this was a highly embarrassing incident (right during the earnings call). We’ll have to see if there is a financial impact from breaking SLAs. But more impactful for me is the reputation hit for this edge network – customers might rightfully question the reliability of using their Zero Trust and Workers platforms for critical systems.
Share price wobbled after earnings; but, has gained more,than most since. Nonetheless, I highly recommend subscribing to Muji’s Hhhypergrowth.com.
11/29/23
Despite Snowflake beating and raising company guidance, I sold 12.5% of my 20% position on the 8% AH bump to add a little 5% more to Tesla@244/share and 10% more to my ~10% position in Samsara.
I was expecting more from Snowflake, my confidence is back down to a equal weight (16.67%) actually 17.5% now. The longer I follow Tesla closely and therefore listen more carefully to Elon Musk the more I find myself surprised by inaccuracies, seemingly due to confirmation bias, and an obvious negativity bias of the mainstream media. Everyday I’m confronted with unwarranted FUD around Tesla, IMO.
Was I also lazy and unduly negative prior to my being overweight in The name or am I now blinded by my own confirmation bias. Well, at least Im asking these questions and not pretending that I’m immune to human error🙄.
I feel like I’m just following all of Saul’s great advice he’s given here on this Board. At least what is my interpretation of what I’ve picked up over these last many years now.
Thanks you forever Saul!
Best to ya’ll,
Jason