Jeff Green - TTD: The Next Wave

I didn’t trust TTD’s last quarter, but after another quarter with incredible results, I want to learn more about this company and the market potential.

I know there are some great posts on this board and NPI I think so I’ll dig through those, but I also like to evaluate the founder-leaders of these companies. A great way to do that is by listening to them on conference calls, following them on social media, and watching their presentations.

Here’s a presentation about TTD’s new line of products from Singapore.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=33&v=K2EDjEQ…

  • Austin

Shopify (SHOP) Ticker Guide

For information on all of my current holdings view my profile here: http://my.fool.com/profile/CMFAleeb/info.aspx

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Austin - incredible presentation from Jeff Green in Singapore - thanks so much for bringing that to our attention! I learned a lot about TTD’s business and I am more bullish than ever.
The 4 points of AI blew me away.

Jeff Green and his company Rock!!

I will be looking for any dips to buy more TTD:-).

… Marc

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Out of curiosity, people are talking about being convinced that a company is “the real deal” (TTD) for instance. And how much TAM is in front of the company, convinction behind the CEO, “early innings” of a huge market…

And then it is followed by “I will buy on dips”

why wait?!

This is a $5.4B market cap company. Smaller than NTNX, SHOP, SQ, PSTG, OKTA, TWLO and plenty of others.

I don’t understand the timing comments, if this company does what you have convinction in, whether you got the stock at a $5.4B market so or a $4.9B market cap really won’t matter as much as you think it might.

So…why wait?

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Agreed. If advertising is expected to reach $1T globally over the next decade, and 20% of that is bought programmatically, and TTD gets a 20% share of programmatic (likely conservative), and they take 15% (thei low end estimate) of that dollar volume as revenue, and make only a 35% net margin, they would still be seeing $14B in annual profit. Even if the market only awards them a 10x PE ratio, they would still be a $140B company then, which would be a 28x return from today’s market cap.

Will they actually hit that number? Maybe not, but there does seem to be adequate margin of safety for them, especially at current prices. They are just sooo much smaller in market cap than their TAM…

They are still priced as a flash in the pan. I suppose that is still possible but there isn’t an indication of it based on the recent data. If you’re not in already, I don’t think valuation is a strong reason not to start at least a small position.

Hopefully someone isn’t taking them out at a 25% premium tomorrow, before they really scale up!

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JAF I certainly agree with your view. It won’t matter what price we bought at now if it becomes a 50,100, or $200B market cap.

All that will matter is if we didn’t buy it because it didn’t hit whatever our “buy” price was.

That being said, there’s no guarantees on future performance.

Also, only one person made a timing comment like you referenced. At least in this thread.

If advertising is expected to reach $1T globally over the next decade, and 20% of that is bought programmatically, and TTD gets a 20% share of programmatic (likely conservative), and they take 15% (thei low end estimate) of that dollar volume as revenue, and make only a 35% net margin, they would still be seeing $14B in annual profit. Even if the market only awards them a 10x PE ratio, they would still be a $140B company then, which would be a 28x return from today’s market cap.

Gilligandopolis, I’m frequently a little impressed and excited when folks, for instance the Fool analysts on Motley Fool Money, rattle off these sort of back of the envelope valuation models for a company to make a quick bull case for a stock. (Yes, I realize you’re making a lot of assumptions and there are no guarantees.) Where do you come up with these figures, though?

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