What I Did With TTD & Green on Cramer

Hey Everyone, been a little quiet with posting about companies and my April EoM review because I have been making adjustments over the last few weeks and we can’t discuss until two full market days have past.

At the end of April I was up 53% YTD and the only significant change was selling out of SQ.

Okay so on to The Trade Desk. Bottom line, I am as confident as ever in this company and I think Jeff Green is taking the extremely long view. If he wasn’t they would not be approaching China right now in the manner that they are. This shows me they are confident about their business and what the future holds.

I trust them.

My TTD position over 23% of my portfolio before earnings and sold down to 15% before ER at around $220 because I was just uncomfortable with a position that large. The way I see it is a major loss at 23% could be crushing, and if the company is a mega-winner, then a 15% - 18% position will be plenty.

The day of the release, I bought back 40% of the shares I sold at $188. I wasn’t planning on doing that, but I felt it was too good of an opportunity to pass up. Now I’m sitting at around an 18% position give or take. Won’t be adding, but also won’t sell unless the story changes or it runs up to around 25% again.

Green was just on Cramer tonight. Here’s a link and my rough notes. Quick takeaways are Green sounds pretty humble, but very confident. I like that combo. He does not seem worried and I had forgotten that TTD has such a high “Rule of 40” ratio – see below.


Cramer Intro:

Stock down over last 2 weeks – is it a buy?!? (THANKS CRAMER!)

Cramer said the company reported very strong earnings, management guided conservatively as usual.

Cramer: How much would investors have made if they bought IPO?

Green: IPO priced at $18 and was in mid 20s at end of day — up 1,000% in 3 years

Cramer: How does platform work?

Green: If you want to buy google or facebook, you go there. But they don’t do the rest of the internet. What we do is help companies figure out…should I buy ads on NYT.com, CNBC, HULU, etc?

We help them use data to figure out where to advertise.

Cramer: What is the Rule of 40

Green: Rule of 40 — trying to figure out the right multiple of R&D and growth
— TTD is number 1 of any software company. TTD is double that.

Cramer: You are willing to try China when everyone is running from China. Why is that smart?

Green: What we have done well is being able to partner with anyone because we don’t own any media. We’re the only company in the world that can partner with everyone. We did something unique which most companies don’t do in China. We brought money into China vs out of China. It made it easy for us to go into China when everyone else is running out.

China 2nd largest ad market in the world, growing twice as fast as US. We’re hoping to go into every other country too

Cramer: Comcast gave HULU to Disney. How do you feel about that?

Green: CTV is one of the greatest transitions we will ever see. Most consumers can’t afford another subscription. So ad-funded model is the way to go

Green: TAM is growing from $725B to $1T in 7 years, growing at 1.5x GDP


thanks for the notes…got a bit under the weather and missed it.
I actually heard Cramer a couple weeks ago take a call on TTD, and he basically said he blew this one and did a mea culpa and recognized how well the company and stock were doing.

Nice bounce today. I did similar in adding more after ER to take advantage of the dip. I am very overweight TTD, so not sure how long I will hold all of it, but plan to ride it back up and keep a core position into next year.

Only an ER revenue miss would make me run for the exits, and Green has never done that yet, so it would signal an NVDA/Jensen-like unexpected change if that happened. Right now, I still have full faith in mgmt and in thesis of mobile/intl/dig audio/ctv.

A lot has been said around “oh…they have all the customers already, so growth is now limited.”

This is just simply incorrect. Read the ER/CCs. They have client upside in terms of adds, but the main growth driver is simply that ad budgets don’t actually have to rise. We only need the “mix” of those budgets to continue the relentless march towards digital and programmatic, and away from traditional media (print, radio, legacy tv, and even old school desktop display banners).

So if they maintain their 95% retention rate, and continue to add new clients, they can’t help but growth by the virtue of the ad budgets of the clients that use their service will continue to evolve towards programmatic.

Long TTD



If you are following The Trade Desk and haven’t visited their website recently, I would recommend checking it out. Green may have said that they are most excited about Europe in the conference call, but they are putting their China efforts front and center.

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Jeff Green is compelling…

“We did something unique that most companies don’t do when they go into China, which is, we said we are going to bring money into China instead of trying to take it out. Instead of trying to tap into the Chinese consumer and take money out, let’s bring advertising spend from the biggest brands in the world and it’s made it easy for us to go into China…”

TTD being platform agnostic, has no competition at present, as first movers, the way their business operates is their moat and will be harder to replicate/compete as they grow.

TTD already has an office in India, the 2nd most populated country in the world.




Over a 5% boost here early this morning, presumably in decent part thanks to the extra exposure provided by the appearance with Cramer from last night. Not too shabby.

long TTD (largest position, similar to Austin and Dreamer…glad to see even Bear on board now :slight_smile: )

Reference thread for mentioning Bear in good humor (NOTE, this thread was from nearly 15 full months ago):


pretty sure that is not “The Trade Desk” or TTD’s India website.
Doesn’t mean they don’t have an office there, but that appears to just be a company with a similar name.

I am not sure they are in India yet. Imagine that could be a wave after China is more established for them, though.


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Reference thread for mentioning Bear in good humor

Joel just keeps poking the Bear.

Yes, I was wrong. Interesting that I had those concerns after Q4 2017 where they turned in 42% revenue growth. Others have expressed similar concern after last week’s report of 41% growth – maybe they can learn from my error in thinking one down quarter was the new normal, or a trend.



Cramer is a PR Departments dream.

Who wouldn’t go on that show and get thrown a basket of softballs.

Great to see a pop today, but meaningless longer term.

Hopefully ESTC is on Cramer’s show tonight, they could use a pop. :wink:

Ha funny you say that…ROKU tonight. Batter up!

Cramer’s show is a great venue for hearing directly from CEOs. He talks to more CEOs than I will ever talk to, and he talks to more CEOs than the Fool has access to. It is one of the best parts of his platform, and those relationships are very valuable.



Jeff Green is taking his time. He could target both countries at the same time.