Let’s start with that irritating factor, the Presidential Cycle, so simple sounding that no one in the fee charging business can afford to be associated with it. And
that is presumably why it continues to work. The important fact here – see Exhibit 1 – is
that for 7 months of the Presidential Cycle, from October 1st of the second year (this cycle, 2022) through April 30th of the third year (2023), the returns, since 1932, equal those of the remaining 41 months of the cycle! This has a less than one-in-a-million probability of occurring by chance, pretty remarkably, and it has been about as powerful in the last 45 years as the previous 45 years. We are now in this sweet spot, which once again is up nicely so far… Suffice it to say that this positive influence may help to support the market for a few more months.
DB2 Noting that the market low last year was on October 13th