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voters
Or, at least he will try to. He’s made that perfectly clear.
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He would like to, he’s made no secret of that. (Curious, since it was he who appointed him, I’m remembering “all the best people”.)
But multiple stories from various media sources sourced from presumably different sources indicate that he’s been talked out of it, that the repercussions in the courts and in the markets would be devastating.
If a recession sets in and Powell still doesn’t lower rates because inflation also picks up, I expect he would fire him anyway and live with the consequences, which as he has been told, could be “1929”, shorthand for immediate, deep recession or possibly depression.
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Since when is it a mistake to fire someone you hired? A good manager recognizes his mistakes and corrects them.
Keeping wastrels guarantees failure.
This is not an opinion about Jay Powell, it’s an opinion about the post I’m replying to.
The Captain
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It’s a mistake when there is no cause.
It’s a problem when the manager cannot recognize or acknowledge a mistake even if it was written in black marker on their forehead.
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We are having an administration that is voluntarily taking us to recession. And not just garden variety one but one that can be anywhere from deep to great depression.
Still people are not freaking out enough.
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As an investor what frightens me most is not the possibility that the administration is voluntarily taking us into a recession, but rather that it is blitheringly ignorantly arrogantly stumbling us into a recession.
As a citizen rather than an investor, my thoughts are far more…. difficult to convey accurately.
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It’s not. But it’s absurd when you promised to hire “the best people” and then you fire more of them than any other President (and more of their replacements than any other too.)
Perhaps this demonstrates a lack of skill in the hiring process?
Turnover. Donald Trump had more turnover in his administration than any president since the Brookings Institution started measuring in 1980, with 92% of his A-team followed by another 45% of his second hires for his A-team. The turnover rate in his first year was double the next highest president since Reagan.
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You can debate whether it is voluntarily or not. Don’t assume they don’t know what they are doing.
My biggest fear is they know what they are doing, their billionaire friends know what is going on. There is not enough alarm amongst the big billionaire class. Let it sink. The richest folks who could lose 100’s of billions are not worried.
That means, perhaps, they know what is going on, they have a game plan and they know they will come out otherside much better.
In any market meltdown it is the retail that as a whole loses more than the professional traders as a whole.
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So you agree with me that Goofy’s is a straw-man argument. As I said, my post was not about Jay Powell’s performance.
You argument is that you disagree with the president. That’s fine by me. What central banks do doesn’t deprive of sleep.
Thank you!
The Captain
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Anybody who thinks they know what is going on, and how it will come out is very, very, very wrong.
Or there’s
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Democrats and Trump detractors think, he is an idiot and the administration don’t know what they are doing, etc. That is the problem. Apple’s of the world are able to pay 10’s of millions to Trump and get an exception for their tariffs. But there is no universal exception, i.e., if you are a small manufacturer, you will pay the tariff.
You are looking at things from how can I blame trump, I am looking at it from who is going to suffer, and who is going to gain out of this.
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Yes, because that’s exactly what is going on. We have four years of experience watching the big nothing being done during from 2016-2020. This time it’s more organized (largely because of Project 2025) but that doesn’t mean it makes sense, either. The post I wrote AND LINKED from the Wall Street Journal (hardly a font of Trump haters) shows clearly how random the policy decisions are.
There is no plan. There is no logic. It’s a pinball machine, bonking from one bumper to the next, always in search of a good soundbite or meme, and then the news cycle must be fed another random bump tomorrow.
No one (OK, I’m sure there are a couple of savants who will figure out how to profit from apocalypse) will gain from this. Everyone else will suffer. This is not difficult to predict.
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Last 2 weeks Banks have declared results. All the big banks beat their guidance, in spite of investment banking decline significantly. Do you know why? Because they made their money in equity and debt markets.
If you’re a giant like $AAPL or $AMZN, you can afford to hedge your bets. You can pre-order, delay shipments, or ride out a 90-day tariff window while negotiations play out. But for small and mid-sized retailers? They’re walking straight into bankruptcy. Their business models depend on a global supply chain that’s now fractured beyond recognition.
I’m paying close attention to this—trying to understand who will emerge stronger and who’s at real risk. And all of this makes me ask a bigger question: are we heading into a recession—or something worse, a depression?
Because right now, it feels like the President is making every major decision alone, while the so-called “guardrails” of democracy—Congress, the courts —seem to be more symbolic than functional. I can’t go back to my fifth-grade civics teacher and ask why court orders are being ignored, or why Congress remains paralyzed.
Some people have the luxury of debating this like it’s just theory. I don’t. I make my choice once every four years, and then I have to fight to live with it.
So now I’m focused on protecting myself—financially, strategically, and emotionally.
I recognize I should have been in this mode before “obliteration day”…
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There is a local ice cream chain called Molly Moon’s. People love it. Line out the door at every location. All locally sourced ingredients, so tariff proof right?
Nope. They buy compostable spoons from China. Molly Moon says the tariffs will cost her half her annual profits.
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You missed the Presidential rant about paper straws? Policy can be expected to favor US made plastic, made from US oil, gas, and chemicals. Abandon all hope of “renewable”, “sustainable”, or “environmentally friendly”.
Steve
Does anyone think the Billionaires publicly say what their real agenda is?
Steve
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Word!
GWB had Cheney, Haliburton n big oil pulling the levers behind his curtain. Anybody remember “non compete contracts”?
TIG has JD, Thiel, PayPal Mafia, VCs (D Sacks et al) n other B-aires, etc pulling the levers behind his curtain. Didn’t X just get a “non compete contract” to be “the” contact platform for government communications?
JMO.
X10 rule.
ralph
How does one tap into the “data is the new oil” investing thesis?
AMZN, META, TSLA, PLTR?
MSFT (n Gates) seem to be keeping a low profile?
NVDA/Huang, AAPL/Cook are scrambling.
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There IS logic!
I agree that it APPEARS chaotic … AND there IS a “randomness”.
But it’s more in the { in search of a good sound bite or meme}
“throw something outrageous out there and see if it cause a bunch of shrieking n moaning”.
Recently JD called Chinese people “peasants”. The Chinese are outraged! Do you really think JD “slipped up” “inadvertently” made that reference?
IMO, it was coldly calculated.
I see a pinball bonking from one DISTRACTION, one Red Herring to another". Ie, the next Red Herring.
Chaos is where you find opportunity.
In ecological systems, the greatest diversity and productivity is the “chaotic zone” between two “stable systems”.
These chaotic zones are characterized by loose, available resources. Other “users” step in an access the previously tied up resources". More users, more diversity, more productivity.
I visualize the “preTIG” US/West - China economic relationship as “stable” … And TIG decoupling as “destabilizing” those relationships, thereby releasing resources.
Who is gonna access those resources best, and, like @Kingran , how do I coattail it.
ralph
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Yes, yes I do. There was no profit to be had from insulting ordinary Chinese, and you have to believe that they have the power to accurately predict ahead of time which comments will gain traction and which won’t. (Indeed, the “peasant” comment was made several days before anybody picked up on it.) It doesn’t work like that. Nobody knows what will go viral until it does.
Nobody knew “Where’s the Beef” was going to be such a bell ringer, but it was. Some things you can hope for but never predict.
IMO, it was coldly calculated.
Not a chance. To “coldly calculate” something you have to be able to think, and there is no demonstrable evidence of that at any level.
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