Jonathan's End of September Portfolio review

[jonathan1]

September was my best single month ever - up 44% in September alone! I would have been happy with that for the whole year!

Year to date I am up an incredible 147% on the entire portfolio! By far my best ever year in the 20 years I have been investing.

And the other big news for me is that I have finally, after almost 4 years, now reached, and surpassed my previous ATH which had been set on Oct 17 2021. It has taken me four years to recover what I had lost in the horrible 2022 - but I am now back to where I was (and then some). My new ATH was reached on Monday of this past week. As of today, Oct 2, I have surpassed it by another 5%.

After my best ever year last year when I was up 70% I really did not think I would be near that figure again - but to be up 147% so far is just mind-blowing to me. This is more than a quadruple in less than 2 years! And this is without using options or anything else - other than long term holding of great growth companies and running a concentrated portfolio as Saul has taught us.

Changes I made this month - once again very few. I sold out, just this morning, of the Australian anti-drone company I had bought back in July (EOS:ASX). It has more than tripled in the last 2 and a half months - and after some analysts lowered their estimations yesterday for their next earnings - I thought I would sell out and protect the over 200% gains I had made on it in a matter of weeks. So I am currently holding 8% cash - but that won’t be long as I will look to re-invest that cash soon.

I also sold out of my small position in Credo a couple of weeks ago and have purchased a new company - Commscope Holdings which is a leading provider of network infrastructure solutions for Data centers.

My portfolio looks like this as of Oct 2.

Nebius - 43%

APPlovin - 18%

Celestica - 11%

AsterLabs 10%

Nvidia 8%

Commscope Holding 3%

Cash - 8%

I have not bought a single share of Nebius since earlier this year when the price was much much lower - but I decided back in January to make it my largest holding as soon as I could - and with the phenomenal growth it has had (even before the Microsoft deal was announced) it has organically grown to be such a large percentage. I have not trimmed it - and I am still not planning to trim it. I still believe it has much much further to run - and I am very happy to trust management when they say they expect more deals like they have just announced with Microsoft.

Equally high conviction for me is APPLovin - another stock I have held for a long time. My first purchase of APP was at $75 in April 2024. It is now almost a 10 bagger since that time. I have also not trimmed it and I am looking forward to what Adam Foroughi calls a “fun quarter” coming up. There is such a lot hidden in this word. Now that their self service platform has just been opened up I am expecting another blow out Q. To do this at this scale on such a regular basis is truly amazing. I am a very happy holder of APP.

Celestica has been in my portfolio since Feb 2024 when I bought it at $38. Today it sits at over $250. I think I am the only holder of this stock on this board - but I am very happy with it and have no plans to sell it whilst they continue to produce such great numbers in their ER’s.

Astera Labs used to be a greater percentage for me - but with the recent pull back of the stock it has fallen to just 10% of my portfolio. But I think the pullback is overdone and I may even buy some more from my sale of EOS.

Nvidia is the only stock I never even think about between Quarterly earnings! I am more than happy to leave it in my portfolio. What they are doing at this scale is beyond precedent.

I am still learning about COMM - which is why it is only 3% for me. I may increase this, or I may buy back EOS, or increase ALAB - or get somehting else. I need to do more research to decide.

Wishing everyone a great Autumn (as we say here in the UK) or Fall as you say in the US.

Best,

Jonathan

My previous portfolio reviews:

https://discussion.fool.com/t/jonathans-end-of-august-portfolio-review/121063

https://discussion.fool.com/t/jonathans-end-of-july-portfolio-review/120367

https://discussion.fool.com/t/jonathan-s-early-june-portfolio-review/118951

https://discussion.fool.com/t/jonathans-early-may-portfolio-review/117982

https://discussion.fool.com/t/jonathans-february-portfolio-review/113227

https://discussion.fool.com/t/jonathans-early-december-portfolio-review/111063

https://discussion.fool.com/t/jonathans-first-portfolio-review-and-four-year-update/106666

https://discussion.fool.com/t/my-brief-investing-story/52814

[monkeydluffy]

Congrats on the results! $NBIS is also my largest position with some leverage. I don’t have plans to trim it, either. This, in my opinion, is the most predictable bet in the market now. The core business alone can be worth much more than their current market cap, not mentioning that Avride has started commercialization and both Toloka and Clickhouse are growing rapidly with huge potential. $APP is coincidentally my second largest position as well. They both have grown to their current positions.

Cheers,
Luffy

[FallingWallenda]

Sorry for this post but I’d like to reach out to Jonathan directly cuz I’m moving to UK next year. Like to pick his brain. How do we communicate directly to individuals? I can’t figure it out. wallenda@mac.com.

[drew1618t]

FallingWallenda,

I would recommend editing your post to add an email address for him to reach out to you.

Drew

[jonathan1]

Hi @FallingWallenda. I’ll send you a direct email now.

Jonathan

[prust04]

@jonathan1 congrats on a great year! I’ve looked at Celestica a few times after you post, but the growth rates hovering around 20%, with relatively low margins compared to what we typically look for, have kept me out. Looks like Net Income saw a huge jump last quarter, driven by positive movement in GM. I also see that before the big rise in price, it seemed to have been undervalued quite a bit.

So is the story the growth in profitability with them, or are you/they expecting to see accelerating revenue growth as well? They aren’t as undervalued as they once were, so I’m trying to determine if there’s gas left in the tank.

[jonathan1]

Thank you @prust04 and @monkeydluffy.

In terms of CLS…

Yes, it’s true that CLS is not the bargain it was. I first bought it 18 months or so ago because it seemed to be in the right place at the right time in terms of it’s CCS division (Cloud and connectivity solutions). It had a P/S of less than 1 and its CCS segment was a growing and increasingly large percentage of revenue.

In its last Q it’s CCS segment (which represents 72% of revenue) grew 27% YoY and the Hardware Platform Solutions segment nearly doubled, up 82% to about $1.2 billion.

After the quarter, the management raised 2025 guidance to $11.55 billion of revenue from $10.85 billion and to $5.50 of adjusted EPS from $5.00. That is about 20% sales growth and about 42% EPS growth in the year. Free cash flow grew 83% YoY to 120m.

On the call their CEO Rob Mionis said “on 800G in terms of the breadth we have versus 400G, I would say every 400G customer we had has turned into an 800G customer. So the breadth of our offering is quite large. Our market share also for 800G is that much larger than market share for 400G as well based on our early wins. So the breadth that we’re seeing across a number of hyperscalers and the ramps we’re seeing across a number of hyperscalers is great to see, and it’s fairly pronounced.”

It is not the bargain it was when I first bought it, but it is certainly not expensive either. I’m not buying anymore, and I haven’t for a while, but I’m more than happy to hold it as a mid sized position in my portfolio.

Jonathan